Well, it has been a full month since I put up a new article on Arctic Ice Hockey….so I best shake out of my summer relaxation mode and get back to writing about our Winnipeg Jets. Yet our favourite hockey club is not doing me any favours….with nary a whiff of interesting news coming from Kevin Cheveldayoff and the rest of the front office staff.
While it is true that very little has occurred since the True North franchise came to an agreement with RFA defenseman Dylan Samberg on a 3 year extension, I figured that I would outline some of the minor things that have happened or will be happening shortly in the Winnipeg Jets’ universe.
- Starting off with a bit of good news…it has been reported that Adam Lowry is back on skates after his off-season hip surgery. Prior to the captain’s operation the Jets’ organization had indicated that the expected recovery time would be in the 5 to 6 month range, which would fall between October 13th and November 10th. There was no indication from the organization that Lowry is ahead or behind schedule at this point, but having a month on skates prior to the start of training camp surely can’t be a bad thing.
- Two recent Swedish defensemen selected high up in recent drafts by Winnipeg have already kicked off their seasons with some international play for their country (under 20). The most recent 1st round pick by the Jets, 18 yr old Sascha Boumedienne has picked up a pair of assists in 5 games while 2nd rounder Alfons Freij has been held off the scoresheet in 4 contests.
- The NHLPA’s yearly Rookie Showcase will be taking place on September 3rd, allowing one player from each NHL franchise the chance to get their first Upper Deck hockey card photo taken. This year’s representative from Winnipeg will be Brayden Yager, the 14th overall selection of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
- Next up on the calendar is the Prospects Showdown which will take place in Quebec on September 13th to 14th. The Jets’ prospects will play matches against the Montreal Canadiens’ & Ottawa Senators’ youth and I’m very much looking forward to celebrating my birthday by watching the opening game on Saturday (MTL). That is only 2 weeks away folks!!!!
- A week after that, the official Winnipeg Jets’ training camp will kick off in the Peg on September 20th, running all the way to October 4th. This will be the last pre-season where our club gets to play 6 exhibition games (from Sept 21st to Oct 3rd) with the new collective bargaining agreement reducing that number to 4 (while increasing the regular season to 84 gms).
Since that isn’t enough to really qualify as a full article, here are some more general musings about the True North franchise:
- The last three President’s Trophy winners (NYR/BOS/FLA) have averaged 28.3 less points the following campaign, which isn’t a great omen for the Winnipeg Jets in 2025-26. Yet, the two franchises prior to that (BOS/COL) were able to secure top 5 finishes after winning that hardware. So maybe our team has a chance?
- All signs are pointing to the True North’s NHL squad being one of the league’s older clubs this upcoming season, after the signings of 30 yr old + veterans like Jonathan Toews, Gustav Nyquist, and Tanner Pearson replacing younger players like Nikolaj Ehlers, Mason Appleton, & Rasmus Kupari. If one of the young kids can’t grab an NHL roster spot in training camp, it is appearing that the Jets will have an average age of 30.3 this year. That is up from 28.9 last season and close to last year’s oldest club (EDM = 30.6).
- When it comes to age, all of Winnipeg’s positions are coming in around the same number, with the Forwards averaging 30.3, the Defensemen sitting at 30.1, & the Goaltenders leading the way at 31.
- Jumping ahead to the upcoming off-season prior to the 2026-27 NHL campaign…management will certainly have a very busy summer with only a total of 26 players signed by the Jets at that point. Of those 26, only 12 of them are NHL veterans, leaving Chevy to re-sign a pair of RFAs and fill 10 other big league roster spots. When you include the AHL players, the True North organization will have to deal with a total of 16 UFAs and 6 RFAs before they can kick off the season.
- Of course, the biggest UFA of that group is star winger Kyle Connor. Very little has been reported over the summer about the negotiations, other than an early report that indicated the Jets & his agent were in the “same ballpark” when it came to his next contract numbers. More recently, another reporter has said that Connor’s camp is in no rush to sign a deal and want to consider all their options. I know that the perceived delay by Winnipeg in extending last season’s leading point getter has Detroit Red Wings’ fans drooling at the possibility of signing the hometown winger next summer…..but I am not overly concerned at this point. When Connor’s last contract expired, he was a young RFA and the back & forth between his agent went on until September 28, 2019 before ink was put to paper on a contract. Perhaps another comparison may be apt as well because they were in the same situation as Connor (pending UFA), as two summers ago it took the Jets’ front office until October 9, 2023 before they were able to get Mark Scheifele & Connor Hellebuyck to re-up with the organization.
- So there is still plenty of time for Cheveldayoff to do his thing and lock up Connor before the season gets underway (October 9th, 2025). That being said, I will definitely go on record saying that I am utterly against Winnipeg going into this season with an unsigned KFC on their roster. So if the recent report of Connor’s agent wanting to take his time is true, which is totally his right as a veteran hockey player who has earned the right to determine where he plays, I think the Jets’ front office has to take a harder stance. While they can acknowledge the player’s right not to rush into anything, that doesn’t change the fact that the True North organization needs to plan for the future. With a 10 team no trade list, Winnipeg should tell the agent that they will be exploring what the 21 clubs not on his list will be willing to pay for Connor. Maybe the team that makes the best offer won’t be a great fit for a pending UFA looking to put up big numbers in search of a lot of dough? Is Connor willing to risk the unknown in a contract year with the potential of millions more dollars per season on the line? Or would he realize that he has it good playing with his buddy Scheifele after all and do his club a solid by committing well in advance to avoid any distractions this season?
- Basically, the last thing the Winnipeg Jets’ fans need is another pending UFA waffling between loving the Peg yet still being interested in the possibility of playing elsewhere. I know some fans will say that our club should just go all in for the Cup this year and keep Connor even if he won’t re-sign…noting that there is no way that the Jets will get better this year if they trade him. I will admit that Winnipeg would take a hit this season if they traded KFC before it kicked off, but since the world isn’t going to end when the Stanley Cup is lifted again…there are more things to consider that just this one season.
- If every NHL club was equally good, then the Winnipeg Jets would have a 3.125% chance at winning the Stanley Cup this year. Of course, the parity in the league isn’t that solid so I checked out one of the betting sites to find that our club has the 10th best odds to lift the Cup this year, yet even then the percentage worked out to less than 5%. Now, when you get down to it, just 16 NHL squads have a shot at Lord Stanley each season because you have to qualify for the playoffs to get the chance. If all the teams were equally matched, then each club would have a 6.25% probability of a championship.
- After all those numbers, I think it is very safe to say that the True Northers have less than a 10% shot at winning it all in 2025-26……so would you really go all in with a poker hand that had that probability of winning? I wouldn’t. If Kyle Connor won’t sign a new deal before early October, I think the Winnipeg Jets need to do the right thing and bring in future assets for the pending UFA.
Well, that should be enough to count as a good day’s work and finally get a new article up at AIH. In my roamings around the For Hockey Fans network, I haven’t seen anything about whether they will still be running throughout the upcoming NHL campaign. You would think some of the other site administrators would have been advised of that, so it is possible that we will continue to have a place to share our thoughts on the Winnipeg Jets. That being said, while I have very much enjoyed writing articles and participating in discussions with all of you, I am not sure I have it in me to run the entire site for another season. Guess we will just continue to play it by ear and see how it goes…..or perhaps the network goes dead on September 1st? Who knows. I am planning to do write ups on the upcoming Prospects Showdown and exhibition games if we are still around, but not willing to commit to anything beyond that at this point.
Enjoy the rest of summer….certainly feels like it is back in full force with a couple really hot days after some much needed rain.
