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Winnipeg Jets: Depth Chart & Salary Cap

Apr 23, 2024; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets forward Mark Scheifele (55) is congratulated by his teammates on his goal against Colorado Avalanche goalie Alexander Georgiev (not pictured) during the second period in game two of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: Terrence Lee-USA TODAY Sports

As we continue to take a look at the situation the Winnipeg Jets find themselves in heading into the entry draft and free agency, it’s time we check out the contract statuses of all the players in the system.

Prior to just jumping straight to the now, I thought I would point out Winnipeg’s cap flexibility for the 2025-26 season. With only six players under contract (four forwards, a defenseman, & a goalie), a GM will have a prime opportunity to drastically alter the team chemistry. With Scheifele, Connor, Lowry, Niederreiter, Morrissey, & Hellebuyck as a core, the franchise will also have a bunch of young cheap prospects to possibly pick from in McGroarty, Lambert, Lucius, Chibrikov, Salomonsson, & Barlow. Could make for a very interesting campaign, but lets get back to the current off-season.

Here is a list of the Jets’ current forward depth (based on where they played last season)…

With 11 forwards from last year’s squad already signed for 2024-25, Winnipeg’s GM could pretty much roll it back again if he can re-sign UFA Sean Monahan and RFAs Cole Perfetti & David Gustafsson. That might cost too much to pull off, but we will get into the numbers a bit later. Outside of the NHL ranks, the most pro-ready players probably include Rutger McGroarty, Dmitri Rashevsky, & Brad Lambert. With McGroarty agreeing to return for another season in Michigan and Rashevsky signed for one more season in the KHL, I really think the Jets’ only chance at having a rookie forward next season depends on Lambert’s training camp. While I think he could be ready for that 2C spot, the rumour-mill seems to indicate that Winnipeg is doing its best to re-sign Sean Monahan before he hits unrestricted free agency.

Should the young Finn fail to stick with Winnipeg, the Manitoba Moose will have great depth in the middle of the ice with Lambert, Chaz Lucius, Henri Nikkanen, & Danil Zhilkin. The AHL squad will also have a couple of veterans in Axel Jonsson-Fjallby & Dominic Toninato on the wings to go along with younger prospects Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, & Daniel Torgersson. There are decisions to be made with a couple veteran unrestricted free agent left wingers to fill some of the spots, but recent OHL champion Jacob Julien could also be an option. Colby Barlow is a bit too young for the AHL, so he will likely be returning to Juniors for another season and it’s possible that he will be joined by Connor Levis (he is AHL eligible but may develop better at the lower level). Since Fabian Wagner is already under contract, it makes me think he will cross the pond to compete for ice-time with the Moose next season after playing most of the year in the SHL.

There are a lot more decisions to be made on the defensive side of the puck, with 6 UFAs and 4 RFAs to consider. On the blueline, obviously the toughest decision revolves around veteran Brenden Dillon. While the defender brings a much-needed toughness, Chevy’s choice is clouded by the team having 5 other options on the left-side that could play at the NHL level (depending on how you rate the following players). Dylan Samberg might be ready to step up into a 2nd pairing role, but he might require a more reliable partner than Neal Pionk to make that leap. The other options depend on if you believe that Logan Stanley can make further strides with his game or whether you think Kyle Capobianco can build on his AHL Defenseman of the Year season with Manitoba to make the jump to the Jets. The final consideration is Ville Heinola, probably has the best shot due to having the highest ceiling of the potential options. The coaching staff indicated that the young Finn would have made the NHL roster last year if he hadn’t suffered that unfortunate ankle injury, so you have to believe he has a good chance to steal a spot in the top 7 if Dillon isn’t retained. I didn’t mention Josh Morrissey yet, but there is no circumstance that I could foresee that would result in him not holding down the #1 LHD spot. Then there is Nate Schmidt, who is coming off a good season statistically on the third pairing, but makes a lot of money at a time when Winnipeg’s salary cap bank account is low.

I don’t think there are any options for this year’s defense outside of last season’s core, but it is possible that Elias Salomonsson could make the jump from SHL to the NHL (though its more likely he patrols the blueline for the Moose). The next closest is probably another right-hander in Simon Lundmark, but I think both he and fellow RHD Tyrel Bauer could use more seasoning in the minors. That would give Manitoba an interesting trio of prospects along the right, but with only Dmitri Kuzmin as a signed lefty the team could be active in free agency to add more options (though they will have Moose mainstay Jimmy Oligny for depth & they could sign Ashton Sautner to a minor league contract). It is doubtful that Artemi Kniazev returns to North America after last season’s disaster and with Garrett Brown missing most of his college year with an injury, he is also likely to stay in the NCAA and see if he can help Denver repeat as champions.

While there are decisions to be made in the crease, I think both the Winnipeg Jets & Manitoba Moose have their starters locked up in Connor Hellebuyck and Thomas Milic. Both of those goalies have shown they can carry the load at their respective levels and they each will have their own respective motivations for the upcoming year. Hellebuyck will certainly want to rid himself of the stink his playoff performance left, but it will take more than another Vezina-worthy regular season for it to completely go away so the veteran will have to be patient. Milic stole the top role in the AHL after blowing up the ECHL early in the season and will be trying to show management that he has the talent to play at a high level on a consistent basis.

Since there are no goaltender prospects obviously ready to make the jump to the big league, it’s fairly impossible to predict who will be filling in for Laurent Brossoit next season. The back up was so solid in 2023-24, I have no doubt that Brossoit will make more money in free agency than the Jets can afford. Certainly not a suggestion on my part, but I did happen to see that Eric Comrie is also set to hit free agency after his time in Buffalo and it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility the team goes to a familiar face. Dom DiVincentiis will be looking to regain his confidence after losing the starting spot in his last season of juniors, but I definitely expect him to be playing in either the AHL or ECHL come October. The level Dom plays at will likely depend on whether Chevy decides to keep RFA Oskari Salminen or UFA Collin Delia in the fold. Since I don’t think the team is ready for Milic to be 3rd on the depth chart behind Bucky and whomever the new back up is, I do expect them to add some experience to the roster.

Moving onto a look at the salary cap….with the assistance of CapFriendly…here is what the situation looks like for the forward position.

Since only Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Adam Lowry, & Nino Niederreiter are signed beyond next season, let’s assume that those players will be in a Winnipeg uniform next season. Personally, I would consider keeping upcoming UFA Nikolaj Ehlers over Connor if the Dane would re-up for an equal or lesser cap hit than KFC ($7.142M), but the NHL trade-mill appears to believe that Fly’s days in the Peg are numbered. Regardless, if either is moved the Jets would have Scheifele & Connor/Ehlers as clear top six options to go along with Gabriel Vilardi. After that, there would be a bit of a drop off to RFA Cole Perfetti and upcoming UFA Sean Monahan, but there is no real clear sixth option. Is it Niederreiter or young Lambert? Or does the GM add top-end talent through free agency or via trade?

The bottom six is quite crowded with Lowry and possibly Nino leading the way, but also veteran options like Alex Iafallo, Mason Appleton, & Vladislav Namestnikov in the fold. Then you have 24-25 yr old “prospects” like Morgan Barron, Rasmus Kupari, and RFA David Gustafsson to fill the maximum 8 slots (bottom six + 2 pressbox forwards). Since all those players and Axel Jonsson-Fjallby are required to clear waivers, the potential for a lot of movement between the NHL & AHL next season seems low (barring longer term injuries or Chevy making some moves this summer to free up spots).

As we speak, the Winnipeg Jets are spending $42,847,024 of the salary cap on the top 11 players (48.9%) and will likely be able to only afford to carry 13 forwards next year. I am really not sure what Monahan will cost ($5.5-6M?), but I do think they might be able to whittle Perfetti down to around $2M on a one year deal. I am not sure the team could round out the defensive side of things with the remaining money (approx. $6.5M), but let’s take a look at CapFriendly’s view of the Jets’ defense.

Josh Morrissey is the only defender signed long-term, with all of Nate Schmidt, Neal Pionk, & Dylan Samberg entering the final years of their contracts. Since Samberg will be an RFA next summer, I think it’s safe to say that he will remain a Jet in 2024-25. The other two defensemen’s futures are less secure since Pionk’s & Schmidt’s near $6M contracts are eating up a lot of space, especially given the level of their play.

At this point, Winnipeg is only spending 22.2% of the cap on defensemen ($19,475,000), but I’m not sure how much of the available $14M in cap space they will be able to allot to the address an obvious weakness. Sure, buyouts are an option for both Pionk & Schmidt but I am not sure they provide enough wiggle room to adequately fill the spots. Second pairing NHL d-men do not come that cheap unless you can find them young, so the extra space gained by trading one or both of the players would allow Chevy the ability to tempt a UFA over the summer. Even if it costs a bit of future draft capital, trading them may be the best option if the Jets intend to compete.

It will be interesting to see how things play out, because I think Winnipeg needs to add at least two top 4 defensemen (either 2LD/1RD or 1RD/2RD). Re-upping DeMelo in the $4.5 to $5.5M range might solve one of the issues, but replacing Pionk and/or Dillon will be a bit more difficult. Speaking of Dillon, it seems they are predicting him to cost less than $3M on his next deal, which is not bad value for what he brings. I think Colin Miller would cost around $2M, but that may be too much for a 6/7 defenseman unless Chevy completely blows up Winnipeg’s right side. The final two in-house options should both cost around $1M in Ville Heinola & Logan Stanley, so neither will break the bank. The question is whether either is good enough to give the Jets consistent bottom pairing minutes? To be blunt, I think Stanley is a 7th defender at best currently and that spot could possibly be filled by someone better. When it comes to Heinola, I am much more optimistic. A recent article took a shot at the Jets’ organization for not giving Ville a shot in the NHL this season, but to be fair I don’t think the lefty really re-found his top-level game until very late in the season. For the Finn to be successful as a 3rd pairing defenseman, he needs to be teamed with a physical RHD and also get some quality time on the powerplay.

I said that Winnipeg would have approximately $6.5M to fill out the defensive core and the Jets would have have just enough if DeMelo gives the franchise a bit of a break (likely for more term). Lets say $4.5M for him and $1M a piece for Stanley/Heinola would squeeze the team under the cap, but I don’t think you would say they improved their roster. If the team’s GM hopes to make a bigger step, it will certainly involve him working the phones and making some moves.

Moving onto the goaltending situation, where CapFriendly shows us that the Winnipeg Jets have only one masked man under contract.

Connor Hellebuyck’s new contract is taking up 9.7% of the salary cap, while Blake Wheeler’s $2.75M buyout penalty eats up 3.1%. My prior cap gymnastics had provided enough players to fill out the forward & defense positions, but they failed to address the backup spot and I’m not sure even a league minimum contract would fit under.

That shows how difficult it will be for Chevy to afford to bring back a player like Dillon or even get Monahan or DeMelo to re-up at a reasonable rate. Even if he takes a conservative approach, there is no way to make the money work to roll back with last year’s entire team. Cuts will have to be made and this could be a pivotal off-season in Kevin Cheveldayoff’s long career.

Here is an approximate outlook of the Winnipeg Jets’ cap situation as of June 4th, though it does include Jonsson-Fjallby’s $775k contract that will most likely be in the minors (or claimed by another team when he is put on waivers) so it is really just above the $14M mark.

Well, I think that ends our long look at the team’s situation prior to the NHL Entry Draft in late June. Won’t bother trying to predict what Chevy ends up doing cause it would be just a shot in the dark….though I think the cap situation will finally make the GM get a bit more aggressive this summer.

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