In the second part of Arctic Ice Hockey’s look at the Winnipeg Jets’ prospects under the age of 25, we are moving onto to those that should be considered closest to being National Hockey League ready….since they were the ones that played last season for the Manitoba Moose of the American Hockey League.
In case you missed the first article of our Prospects’ Review, you can check it out on the link below:
Winnipeg’s minor league AHL affiliate had a total of 12 players in my Prospects’ category, including 6 forwards, 4 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders. The draft levels vary from two 1st rounders (Lambert/Lucius), three 2nd rounders (Chibrikov/Lundmark/Salomonsson), a 3rd rounder (Zhilkin), two 5th rounders (Phillips/Milic), two 6th rounders (Bauer/Wagner), a 7th rounder (DiVincentiis), and one undrafted player (Ford).
However, before we get to reviewing each prospect’s performance in the 2024-25 campaign, I think it is important to set the scenario and outline how the Manitoba Moose’s season went as a team. With the influx of prospects from our NHL franchise making the leap to the minor leagues over the past two seasons, GM Craig Heisinger was forced to get rid of some veteran AHLers who played key roles such as forwards Jeff Malott, Kristian Reichel, Alex Limoges, Jeffrey Viel, Jansen Harkins, Wyatt Bongiovanni, Cole Maier, and defensemen Kyle Capobianco, & Leon Gawanke. Over the last two campaigns, that is an average of 44.3 points per season gone with each of those player’s exits.
So Manitoba was looking for their higher end prospects like Brad Lambert, Chaz Lucius, Nikita Chibrikov, & Elias Salomonsson to make up for that loss of offense, alongside some of the more veteran players they brought on board for the 2024-25 season (Shaw/Coghlan). Unfortunately, things started off poorly right off the bat for the mini Jets when defensemen Ville Heinola & Logan Stanley sustained injuries during Winnipeg’s training camp, ultimately robbing the Moose of their expected top defensive pairing of Haydn Fleury & Dylan Coghlan when they remained up with the Winnipeg Jets. Then to add to their woes, the expected starting goalie for Manitoba was suddenly not available due to the Colorado Avalanche claiming Kaapo Kahkonen off waivers. That left the Moose coaching staff with the task of beginning the season with two inexperienced goalies under the age of 22, Thomas Milic & Dominic DiVincentiis, a forward group filled with youth except off-season addition Mason Shaw (who was coming off two years of limited hockey due to knee issues), and a defensive core that definitely lacked experience. Manitoba started off the year battling though, pulling off a .500 record after 10 games….but then the injury bug started to kick in.
Surprisingly, it was only Mason Shaw, coming off a year where he was limited to 30 games, who was the only Moose player to dress for all 72 regular season games. All the important players missed time due to injuries in the AHL or ones in the NHL that resulted in players being called up, constantly leaving Manitoba short-handed in the talent department. If you just looked at 7 key players like Lambert, Lucius, Chibrikov, Salomonsson, Coghlan, Parker Ford, & Jaret Anderson-Dolan, you would discover that they combined to miss 207 games in 2024-25. That is almost 30 games per player…..nearly half the season.
The loss of so many top six forwards ultimately hurt the offense badly and when you combine that with an inexperienced defense & goaltending tandem, you were left with a very bad AHL team. In my opinion, my telling you that the Manitoba Moose finished the campaign with the 2nd worst record in the league doesn’t do enough to express how poorly the team played. Perhaps if I added that the club only managed 56 points on the season, 14 points out of the Central’s last wildcard spot, it might help project the depths the team sunk to. Yet even then I feel the need to pile more on….such as the fact that the Moose managed to score 56 less goals than the previous season!! That is a huge drop in offense which made it very tough for me to watch the mini-Jets play this past season. I have to admit the squad being stuck in their own end for most contests led to me skipping more than a few, especially after injuries to so many players left Lambert & Salomonsson as the last non-goalie prospects standing in the second half of the year.
Below I outlined how Manitoba’s youth movement has impacted the franchise’s performance, so we can keep their struggles in mind when we look at how the individual players did in the 2024-25 season.
*****
The decrease in goals scored by Manitoba this year has certainly made it harder for me to judge how the individual players performed. Maybe if I was a professional hockey scout or had access to the AHL’s advanced statistics, I would be able to accurately assess how the prospects’ development is truly going. But as it is, that dip in offense kind of makes it pointless to follow my Part One path of comparing current Jets’ players time in the minors to the crop of prospects on the Moose this year. It would be like comparing apples to oranges.
Therefore, I have opted to go a different route and rely a lot more on what my “eye test” told me about the player’s performance this season. I will speckle in some stats as well when I can and hopefully those things combined with DobberProspects.com’s PNHLe charts for each prospect will give us an idea of what these young men could become in the future.
So, lets get started by working our way through the Winnipeg Jets’ prospects under the age of 25 by the position they play….
FORWARDS: (6 prospects)
BRAD LAMBERT – 1st round (30th overall), 21 yrs old, 6′ 183 lbs, RW/C
It was just five seasons ago when Brad Lambert first emerged as a potential high end prospect at the age of 16, as he suited up in Finland’s second highest men’s league. The fact that the young lad still almost hit the .500 pts/gm plateau had the scouts thinking he could be a decent NHL player eventually. During Brad’s pre-draft season, the Finns probably didn’t do him any favours when they bounced him around between the country’s top two leagues. As a result, his point production took a bit of a hit, dropping Lambert from being a sure-fire 1st rounder and opening up the opportunity for the Winnipeg Jets to grab him with the 30th overall pick in the 2022 Entry Draft.
The True North franchise continued to try and develop the 18 yr old with the Manitoba Moose the following season, but eventually they realized it might be best for the kid if he played against others his own age. When he joined the WHL with the Seattle Thunderbirds, the missing offense from Lambert’s game was rediscovered as he put up a points per game rate (1.32) similar to what Mark Scheifele did in the OHL at the same age. Another key was the move to becoming a centerman, as that allowed the young Finn to use his speed more effectively through the neutral zone. That fantastic year made the scouting community put Brad back into the potential 2nd line NHLer category after his draft year saw him projected as a bottom sixer. The next season Lambert made the jump to the AHL for a full season with the Moose (while Scheifele was still playing in the OHL at the same age) and the young Finnish center didn’t disappoint. His numbers that year were very comparable to what Kyle Connor did in the minors at the same age, making the scouts say that the kid’s ceiling might be the 1st line after all.
With expectations high, Lambert entered the 2024-25 campaign as Manitoba’s top center and his point production was good to start the season….6 pts in the first 6 games (1.000%) & 11 pts in the opening 15 (.733%) even though the Moose had a 6-9-0 record at that point. As I went into earlier, the squad was already missing important defensemen and now the injuries to the forward corps began to really impact the club’s effectiveness. In the end, Brad finished the season with 14 less goals & 6 less assists to finish with 35 points, good enough for 3rd on Manitoba in total points & points per game. Lambert started the year off in a bit of a sniping slump (1 goal in first 13 games) and then the team’s problems on the powerplay (15.9% hit rate, 5.2% less effective than last yr) helped explain the lack of goals in his 2nd AHL season.
*****
According to DobberProspects.com’s PNHLe chart, the drop in scoring has sunk Brad Lambert back into the realm of a future NHL 2nd liner and I have no problem with that ranking. The ultimate potential ceiling for Lambo may be as a top liner in the NHL, but I believe it is more likely that he ends up in the scoring 2nd liner category. The 21 yr old forward has a lot of strengths that will translate to the big leagues, like good skating skills that will allow him to transition the puck through the neutral zone & gain the offensive zone for the Jets. While equally fast, Lambert can’t dazzle like Nikolaj Ehlers by dancing around with the puck on his stick, yet he has the quickness to cycle the opposition’s net to allow his teammates the opportunity to find open space for a pass. That speed will also allow him to get the occasional breakaway and a 50% shoot out conversion rate in the AHL shows that he has the hands to capitalize on them often enough. I believe he also has a NHL level shot, in particular a wrist shot that has been effective at beating tenders from as far out as the top of the face-off circles. The Finn will increase Winnipeg’s powerplay effectiveness with his good passing abilities, to go along with the additional boost of adding another talented right shot to the PP units.
While Brad did hit the 20 goal plateau in his 1st full AHL season, I think it will be in the passing department that he ends up being most impactful at the NHL level. Even though the Moose scored 56 less goals this year, Lambert only finished with 6 less assists than his rookie campaign, so he was still setting up around the same amount of goals. The Finn still has things to work on too, like bulking up that 6′ frame so that he can be more effective along the offensive boards or battling in the crease. Face-offs are also not a strength, so if Lambo can’t improve that along with his 2-way play (which isn’t bad), he may end up as a right winger with the Winnipeg Jets.
Now, I know lots of people are anxious to get Brad’s NHL career started…..and I was right there with them after last season’s strong performance. Now, I am less sure. Using the NHLe calculator on his two AHL campaigns, it suggests that he would have scored between 27 & 38 points if he had been playing versus NHL talent. Which isn’t that bad if you are filling a bottom six role, but with the way the Jets are constructed, they end up playing their 3rd line against the oppositions’ best…thus limiting opportunities for rookies mainly to the 4th line in the bottom six, not an ideal place to get the required ice-time to keep on developing a young player. Now if Winnipeg had more size in their top six, then I could see them giving Lambert a shot up there, but I just don’t see a Ehlers-Lambert-Cole Perfetti line being all that effective when the going gets tough.
The loss of Adam Lowry for the early part of next season and the departure of Rasmus Kupari open up some NHL forward slots, so a good training camp could allow the young Finn the opportunity to start the 2025-26 campaign with Winnipeg. Whether it is with the Jets or the Moose, I really want to see Lambert take that next step in becoming more of a puck possession threat. I know that I will be re-upping my AHL subscription just in case Manitoba gets to feature a one-two punch of Lambert & Brayden Yager next season.
*****
NIKITA CHIBRIKOV – 2nd round (50th overall), 22 yrs old, 5’10” 172 lbs, RW/LW
Our look at Nikita Chibrikov’s hockey journey begins when he was a 16 yr old playing in Russia’s 2nd best league (0.5 pts/gm), yet it was in International competition against his own age group that he really shined (1.15 pts/gm). The following year, the winger got bounced around all three of Russia’s leagues but really stood out at the World Junior Championship (1.86 pts/gm) leading to the Winnipeg Jets selecting him in the 2nd round of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft.
Another two seasons overseas at various levels led to Nikita opting to make the jump across the pond to join the Manitoba Moose last year. The small, but feisty forward impressed as a rookie, scoring 17 goals and putting up 47 pts (.671 pts/gm). Gritty on the forecheck and a threat with the puck on his stick, Chibrikov can maintain puck possession in the offensive zone to allow his teammates the time to open up passing options or drive to the net for a potential rebound. He was also relatively healthy as a rookie, suiting up for 70 of 72 AHL contests and only missing those 2 because he was recalled by the Jets. The scouts at this point gave the Russian his highest potential ceiling in the PNHLe rating, saying that he could turn out to be a middle of the pack 2nd liner in the big leagues.
So another player with high expectations heading into the 2024-25 campaign, yet Nikita didn’t let that change the way he played. The Moose were at their most competitive prior to the 22 yr old’s season ending injury because they hadn’t lost too many players at that point, yet the Russian’s loss was felt heavily by the squad since he was often one of Manitoba’s skaters that drove the puck into the opponent’s zone. Now you might be thinking that it isn’t surprising that a small 5’10” forward would get injured, but the 22 yr old was really unlucky to miss more than half of the season due to a non-contact situation where his skate got caught in a rut and forced his leg into an unnatural position.
At least before Chibrikov was hurt the Russian got the opportunity to show what he could do at the NHL level, suiting up for 4 games (3 pts) with the Winnipeg Jets and his production making the club’s fans want to see him on the NHL club’s roster when next season rolls around.
*****
DobberProspects.com’s PNHLe chart still has Nikita Chibrikov’s potential ceiling in the 2nd line range and ideally he might be deployed as a high end 3rd liner that could add offense from the bottom six. I very much enjoy watching the 22 yr old play, as he isn’t afraid to get involved in the physical play and won’t back down during a scrum even though he is often facing a bigger opponent. When the puck is on his stick, he could remind you of Nikolaj Ehlers at times as he dangles his way through a few defenders before setting up a teammate for a scoring chance. Good skating helps Nikita with zone exits & entries, plus gives him a better chance at avoiding big bodychecks with a last second change of direction.
The winger’s To Do list for the summer probably looks a lot like Lambert’s, with building strength and watching film to improve their defensive games sitting at the top. I think he should be watching his ideal role model playing in the Stanley Cup Finals, as Brad Marchand has shown that a little guy can be effective in the NHL….during the regular season & in the playoffs.
If Winnipeg is able to retain all their key free agents (Ehlers/Vilardi/Samberg), then I fully expect Chibrikov to get a good shot at making the Jets’ bottom six. I can see a potential fit as a Mason Appleton replacement to add some more offensive potential to the club’s shutdown trio, with the bonus that Nikita would give coach Scott Arniel another scoring option for the 2nd powerplay unit. Even if Fly walks, I think the Russian stands a chance of out-performing any inexpensive & experienced veterans the team brings into compete with him. And if I am wrong, then the Manitoba Moose have one more weapon in their top six to help out prospects like Colby Barlow et al.
*****
PARKER FORD – Undrafted, 24 yrs old, 5’9″ 181 lbs, RW/C
I won’t go into as much detail about Parker Ford, since I might be stretching things to include him as one of the Jets’ prospects. A month away from turning 25 yrs old, the Rhode Islander had a couple NCAA seasons where his PNHLe rating suggested he could be a low level 2nd liner in the NHL, yet the small forward might have been overlooked by the GMs due to his lack of size and he went undrafted.
Back when the Jets had great scouts able to identify overaged players to draft, they were able to add players like Mason Appleton, Andrew Copp, & Jonathan Kovacevic in the later rounds. More recently, Winnipeg hasn’t been as adept at identifying those players or finding good undrafted players to bring into the organization. Ford is the exception to that rule though, as he has the style of play that fits ideally as a 4th line grinder that has a modicum of scoring touch.
The right winger has been very consistent since he joined the Manitoba Moose, always averaging around the .500 points per game mark. Parker has bounced around the lineup due to injuries, but for the most part has suited up in a middle six role in the minors. After just falling short of the 20 goal plateau in his first full AHL season (18), Ford was well on pace to out-do that (14 goals in 41 games) when he sustained an upper body injury that required surgery and thus ended his year prematurely. But that was not before the 24 yr old got to live out his childhood dream of playing in an NHL game, dressing for 3 of them and pocketing his first ever big league goal. For a top six already without Lucius & Chibrikov, this injury really sunk the club’s year and it couldn’t have happened at a worse time for Ford, who had put up 12 pts in his last 14 games (.857 pts/gm).
*****
Unlike a lot of prospects’ DobberProspects.com’s PNHLe charts, Parker Ford’s has been fairly consistent throughout his development. Pretty much always seemingly destined for the bottom six in the NHL, I think the current restricted free agent will get a legit look by the Jets’ coaching staff in the upcoming training camp. With the potential of cap space being minimal next season, it will be important for the squad to find players making less than $1M per year and the feisty winger fits the bill. I believe that he could make that leap and provide a replacement for Brandon Tanev’s energy on the 4th line with a lower price tag. Perhaps the American could be the True North franchise’s next Mikey Eyssimont? The style of play is pretty similar. However, I recall previously looking up how often NHL teams with multiple rookies made the playoffs and the numbers weren’t great…so I am not sure how the Jets’ risk averse front office will handle the off-season.
Some of the things Ford has working against him is Winnipeg’s tendency to favour veterans over younger players and the fact that he does not require waivers to move between the big club & the minors. If Parker does start the year off with Manitoba, at least the exempt status will make him easy to recall and his addition to the Moose’s top six would provide a valuable linemate for the team’s young high end prospects.
FABIAN WAGNER – 6th round (175th overall), 21 yrs old, 6′ 176 lbs, LW/C
The Winnipeg Jets selected Fabian Wagner in the draft after he put up a decent amount of points playing in Sweden’s under 20 league, then the forward followed that up with a slight increase in production the following year against the same opposition. However, once the 21 yr old was bumped up to the SHL his offense dried up and eventually led to him joining the Manitoba Moose in the middle of the season after starting the campaign off pointless in 16 Swedish contests.
The change in scenery didn’t do anything good for his scoring abilities, as Wagner went pointless in his first 10 games and goalless in his first 31. The young Swede did show a couple bursts in his rookie season, including a stretch of 8 games where he netted 7 goals and Fabian also finished the year off well with 3 points in the last 4 contests.
*****
DobberProspects.com’s PNHLe statistic has never been much a fan of Fabian Wagner’s NHL potential, projecting a ceiling of a bottom sixer at best. I certainly won’t disagree with them on that, though when the injuries to Manitoba forced the 21 yr old Swede to play higher up in the lineup he had some stretches where he showed that he could at least be an impactful player at the AHL level.
I am hoping that Manitoba will be much more competitive next season and then we might have a better idea if Wagner could eventually become an asset in the NHL. Personally, I always want to give the European prospects a full season to acclimate to the North American style of hockey, so will be keeping an eye on the young forward in the campaign to come.
DANNY ZHILKIN – 3rd round (77th overall), 21 yrs old, 6’2″ 200 lbs, C/LW
Born in Moscow, Danny Zhilkin moved to Canada in his youth and began his hockey journey in the OHL where a 0.833 pts/gm scoring rate led the Winnipeg Jets taking a shot on him in the 3rd round. The prototypically built forward saw a slight uptick in production the following Junior year before he made the leap the AHL last season.
Despite having good size & speed, the 21 yr old has failed to make an impact on the scoresheet with Manitoba over his two campaigns. Zhilkin only managed 1 point in his first 32 AHL games this year, yet when the injuries piled up for the Moose and his opportunities increased, the Russian had 9 pts in the last 21 contests (.429 pts/gm).
*****
Very much like Wagner, Danny Zhilkin remains a long shot to be a factor at the NHL level at this point, with DobberProspects.com’s PNHLe statistic indicating a ceiling as a 4th liner.
The forward does have some things working in his favour though, as he has the size & build that many teams want in their centermen. I don’t think skating speed is an issue either, so if Danny can find a way to maintain that late season offensive production while continuing to work on the defensive side of things, he might surprise some people. Despite those assets, it is extremely possible that he will end up more Rasmus Kupari than Adam Lowry.
With a lot of new prospects joining the Manitoba Moose next year, Zhilkin will have to work hard to carve out a role for himself in the bottom six. Should be interesting to see if he takes a step forward in 2025-26, but as of now the odds are slim of him becoming a factor for Winnipeg in the future.
CHAZ LUCIUS – 1st round (18th overall), 22 yrs old, 6’2″ 185 lbs, C
Before I switch over to the defensive side of things, I figured I would briefly rehash the sad tale of Chaz Lucius. The Kansas native scored at a 1.5 point per game pace in the USHL in his pre-draft season and the Jets were happy to snag him with the 18th pick in 2021 even though his year ended with an injury. The center made the jump to the NCAA the following season and was once again productive (1 pt/gm) before sustaining another year-ending injury.
Lucius opted to forego another college season and joined the Manitoba Moose for the 2022-23 campaign, put up 5 points in 12 games before Winnipeg moved him to the WHL for the rest of the season. The kid exploded with 5 goals & 15 points in 6 games (2.5 pts/gm) with the Portland Winterhawks before once again his year ended early due to a medical issue.
With a full off-season to prepare, hopes were high for Chaz this season…but it just wasn’t meant to be. After putting up 9 points in 25 AHL games, nagging injuries once again forced the young American from the lineup. This absence kept stretching and stretching until it was ultimately revealed that Lucius had been diagnosed with a degenerative condition that impacted the ligaments & joints. The 22 yr old painfully had to come to grips with the knowledge that his NHL dreams were out of reach and the Jets lost out on a prospect that I felt could develop into a Sean Monahan-type center.
Best of luck in the future, Chaz. Your Manitoba Moose bobblehead will always have its place with all my other Winnipeg Jets’ paraphernalia.
*****
Since I can’t seem to grasp being concise in my writings when talking about the Winnipeg Jets’ prospects, I believe it might be best to make our look at the young guns on the Manitoba Moose into two articles. I may end up regretting that though, since almost all of my hockey experience came at the forward position, so my insights into the defensive and goaltending prospects may end up being too short. I will take that risk to give my hands & your eyes a bit of a rest as I use the next couple of days to finish off Part Two.
As always, any comments about what you found interesting or which prospects you are most hopeful about are appreciated. Once I get the articles looking at the upcoming talent done, I plan on taking a look at the upcoming draft and who the Jets may have the chance to draft. So keep popping back in every now & then to see if anything new is up. Enjoy your summer!!
