You know the pickings are very dry when I’m even happy to read the ridiculous rumour about the Winnipeg Jets making the rounds. At least there was some news about my hockey team to keep me occupied.
One of those knowledgeable hockey insiders was “pretty sure” that Winnipeg’s management was willing to trade Cole Perfetti, Rutger McGroarty, and a pick to obtain Martin Necas from the Carolina Hurricanes. While some of you will have no problem believing Kevin Cheveldayoff would be stupid enough to make that awful of a trade, I failed to see how he would consider trading two prospects with ceilings similar to the one player he would be acquiring. Chevy may have flaws as a General Manager, but his trading record has been pretty solid throughout his time in the Peg in my opinion.
So obviously Seravalli’s story never made sense to me therefore I was not surprised when Winnipeg’s local media clarified the situation a few days later by issuing a report stating that the rumoured package was what the Canes were asking for…not what Winnipeg was willing to part with. A fairly important distinction to a Jets’ fan. Especially with the franchise on what appears to be the cusp of slowly overturning their roster with an influx of youth, it didn’t make a lot of sense to rid yourself of some of the teams’ higher potential prospects at this time. I don’t think it is a stretch at all to suggest that the Jets will have at least one rookie on their squad in each of the next three seasons since they currently have about 7 to 9 players in the pipeline projected to push for NHL time in that span.
With the Canes’ trade rumour in the rear view mirror, Chevy & Perfetti’s agent will continue to struggle through their Shakespearian drama over the next month (To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question). In the meantime, I figured I would embrace Head Coach Scott Arniel’s stated openness to analytics by looking at a couple the newly improved analytics department might use: Individual Point Percentage (IPP) and Individual Expected Goals (ixG). Arctic Ice Hockey members will know that my personal go-to stat category is undoubtedly the expected goals (xG) group of stats, but I am often mentioning others like Corsi (shot attempts) and Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) as well. These new additions will give us a couple more tools to track how the team has been performing.
As a backdrop to our review of these statistics, we will be using data mainly from the 2023-24 regular season. The Winnipeg Jets were excellent last year at full strength, using their strong 5 on 5 play to vault them to their 2nd best season Win/Loss record since relocating from Atlanta. Rick Bowness’ version of the Jets allowed the least amount of goals against in 82 games (199) while Winnipeg was also the NHL’s best team in 5 on 5 situations by scoring almost 60% of goals. The following chart from Natural Stat Trick outlines the top 27 franchises, sorted by the GF% (actual Goals For Percentage) statistic. If you like, you can compare that number to the xGF% (expected Goals For Percentage) category to see how they match up.
While the Jets were the NHL’s cream when it came to actual goals scored, their dominance at 5v5 wasn’t as clear in the expected goals category (finished 12th in the NHL). It was interesting to see the Florida Panthers allowed the least amount of goals at 5v5 last season (119 to the Jets’ 121), but the Stanley Cup Champs’ offense wasn’t nearly as good as Winnipeg’s in those situations (Jets scored 23 more goals). It was the Toronto Maple Leafs who ended up scoring the most 5v5 goals last season (200), but teams like the Colorado Avalanche (196), Edmonton Oilers (193), and Dallas Stars (192) were also elite even strength offenses.
A bigger perspective observation could possibly confirm how important 5 on 5 play is for an NHL team’s success, with 14 of the 16 playoff teams finishing in the top half of the league in the GF% category. Only the Tampa Bay Lightning (47.37%) and the Washington Capitals (44.97%) managed to qualify for the post-season while allowing more goals than they scored during 5v5 play. So while the Winnipeg Jets will be hoping for improvement from their powerplay in 2024-25, their overall success will depend more on how they handle situations when no one is in the penalty box.
I previously mentioned the Jets as a team did well at even strength, but they also had a few players that excelled beyond the majority of their peers. The Rodney “I Don’t Get No Respect” Dangerfield of Winnipeg’s hockey team, Nikolaj Ehlers tried to draw attention to his talents by tying for 15th in 5v5 points last season (47 pts). Notably, in the list below you might pick up that Fly had the 2nd least amount of ice-time of the NHL’s top 22 even strength scorers too. The Jets weren’t done there, as they also had Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey (tied for 36th with 42 pts) in the top 50. Although a couple other teams likely out-shone the Winnipeg Jets, since the Toronto Maple Leafs had 4 forwards in the top 50 (Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, & Max Domi) and the Edmonton Oilers had 3 forwards in the top 10 (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, & Zach Hyman). Morrissey’s year was pretty impressive though, as he was the 2nd highest scoring defenseman at 5v5 and one of three d-men in the top 50 (1 pt behind Quinn Hughes & 1 pt up on Roman Josi).
When you consider that 5 players at 32 NHL teams equals a total of 160 players making up the top units, it was a feat for Winnipeg to have 5 regulars and 2 part-timers in the top skaters. Some of the year-long Jets were the already discussed Ehlers, Scheifele, & Morrissey. While the others included forward Kyle Connor (tied for 112th with the likes of Martin Necas and mid-season acquisitions Sean Monahan & Tyler Toffoli) and defenseman Dylan DeMelo (tied for 132nd with the likes of Erik Karlsson & Pierre-Luc Dubois).
Now that we’ve seen how important 5 on 5 play is to a team’s playoff hopes, lets see what that data shows us in the form of the Individual Point Percentage. The IPP shows how frequently a player was awarded a point in the event his team (a) scored a goal and (b) the player was on the ice. To give you an idea of what numbers to expect, on average forwards typically receive a point on about 68% of goals scored when they are on the ice, while that number drops to about 30% for defensemen.
This statistic isn’t trying to tell you anything about a player’s overall game…it is purely about the offense. To illustrate this point, you will notice if you look at the chart below that Nikita Chibrikov and Brad Lambert managed to have the IPP stats’ highest rating in their one NHL game by both being involved in their team’s only goal while they were on the ice. However, they also could have allowed 3 goals against during the same span and still walk away with that 100% IPP rating. So when you are browsing the data, keep in mind this is all about the player’s impact & involvement on actual goals scored. Alright, lets see how Winnipeg’s players did in 2023-24…here are the Jets’ stats for 5 on 5 play during the regular season via Natural Stat Trick (forwards & defensemen in separate charts):
Surprise, surprise…look who’s on top in this category for Winnipeg Jets’ regular forwards. Once again it’s the Great Dane, Nik Ehlers, leading the way with a 75.81% IPP, which is good for 60th by NHL forwards. The upcoming UFA finished with the 3rd most ice-time @ 5v5 for Jets’ forwards last season, but he would have been much lower if Connor & Gabriel Vilardi hadn’t missed so many games due to injury.
There is quite a variety of players in front of Ehlers, but here are a couple notable examples: Connor Bedard – CHI (91.89%), Wyatt Johnson – DAL (86.54%), Andrei Svechnikov – CAR (83.78%), Nikita Kucherov – TB (82.72%), Connor McDavid – EDM (80%), Nathan MacKinnon – COL (79%), & Mark Stone – VEG (76.32%). When it comes to defensemen with more than 320 minutes, Morrissey held onto 20th in the NHL with his 50.6% rating and Dylan Samberg was knotted with Blue Jacket prospect David Jiricek in 40th place with 44.44%.
Focusing solely on Winnipeg, the Jets had 6 regular forwards finish above the average mark (68%) and 5 out of 6 starting defenders match that feat (above 30%). It is not surprising seeing a trigger man like Connor or a set up man like Scheifele up near the top of the chart, but key components of the Grind Line are there too, with Adam Lowry & Nino Niederreiter slightly above average. Fourth liners Axel Jonsson-Fjallby & David Gustafsson weren’t on the ice for many Winnipeg goals, but when they were they ended up getting on the scoresheet more times than not. On the negative side for forwards, the team would probably like to see younger top six players like Vilardi & Perfetti getting involved in a higher percentage of on-ice goals. With only Nate Schmidt finishing slightly below the league average for Jets’ defenders, there is no doubt the team received good offensive support from the backend in 2023-24. This stat supported my belief that Colin Miller did very little in his 5 regular season games with Winnipeg after being traded for, but since he looked so good in his one playoff contest we might as well look at the IPP for the past post-season as well (5v5 data).
Since the data set the above charts are based on is so small, I am not sure you can really see anything hugely important in the numbers. In terms of the IPP stat, Ehlers, Niederreiter, Toffoli, & Miller all got a point when a goal or goals were scored while they were on the ice, while Monahan & Samberg had the chance to get on the scoresheet but failed to be involved in a Winnipeg goal. Perfetti and AJF were the only Jet players to not be on the ice for a 5v5 goal scored against the Avs, though they only played one post-season game each.
Over the five playoff games, the Jets managed a total of 10 even strength goals for an average of 2 per contest. It is impressive that Connor was on the ice for six of those, but only managed to get a goal or assist on four of the markers. Vilardi, Scheifele, & Brenden Dillon were in similar situations with 3 five on five points while being on the ice for 5 Winnipeg goals. For the defensemen in the post-season, it was Neal Pionk & Morrissey who were under the league average and it was the bottom 4 defenders who impacted the offense more.
Moving onto our second “new” stat, Individual expected goals (ixG). I have often in the past quoted the expected goals for the Winnipeg Jets as a team or the numbers for a specific forward line or defensive unit. However, the ixG statistic tries to whittle that information even more specifically to show how many goals a single player was expected to score due to his own performance. So lets check out Natural Stat Trick‘s chart sorted by the ixG category…to get full enlightenment from this diagram, you might want to compare the expected 5v5 goals to the actual goal category for each player (5th column from left).
Before I get to taking a more in-depth look at how the Winnipeg Jets did in this category, lets see how the teams’ top performers stood up to the rest of the NHL. For forwards with more than 300 minutes of ice-time last season, Niederreiter landed in the 25th spot with a 17.44 ixG and Lowry finished in 30th with a 16.84 ixG. When it came to defensemen, Morrissey had the 5th best ixG at even strength with 7.29 ixG (Josi, Ekholm, & Werenski were in the 8.1 to 8.79 range). The Oilers Zach Hyman (31.18) was the NHL’s best, with players like Auston Matthews (27.08), Anders Lee (25.04), & Brady Tkachuk (23.69) just behind.
When I focus on the Jets the lack of a deadly team offense is notable, with only Connor (14.63 ixG=22 actual), Ehlers (14.04 ixG=20 actual), & Dillon (2.68 ixG=8 actual) significantly scoring more goals than the expected goal stat would suggest. Yes, players like Vilardi (10.47=12), Perfetti (10.04=11), & Scheifele (12.87=13) did net slightly more tallies than predicted by the data, but those players will need to capitalize a bit more often if Winnipeg hopes to be a more than average goal scoring squad in 2024-25.
The ixG stat also shows the down-side of Lowry’s checking line….while they do control the puck and create scoring chances when they are on the ice, unfortunately Niederreiter (17.5 ixG=12 actual) and Lowry (16.84 ixG=9 actual) didn’t light as many lamps as they should have. Mason Appleton was a bit better at finishing his chances (10.98 ixG=10 actual), but the 3rd line as a whole need to provide more consistent offense if they continue to see as much ice-time as they have in the past. Vladislav Namestnikov is another Winnipeg player who is good at creating offense (10.2 ixG @ 5v5) but doesn’t capitalize on as many chances as they should (6 actual goals).
In my mind, I think the Jets’ best “play drivers” are Ehlers, Lowry, Niederreiter, & Namestnikov, so it would behoove the coaching staff to spread them throughout the lineup in their search for four quality NHL forward lines. Of course, the biggest hurdle in that quest is the apparent need to have Scheifele & Connor playing on the same line….but even that is not something the magical elixir called Ehlers can’t overcome if they would just give him 1st line minutes.
I know I will probably take some slack for this, but here is my current forward lineup wish for next season:
Connor/Scheifele/Ehlers
Perfetti/Lowry/Vilardi
Barron/Lambert/Niederreiter
Iaffalo/Namestnikov/Appleton
Gustafsson/Kupari
Alright…let me have it in the comments section for putting Lowry so high in the lineup. 🙂
Before I wrap up this trip through the Winnipeg Jets’ last season stats, I thought I would take a look at how our squad was shooting last season. There is a reason why a powerplay is supposed to be a huge advantage in the NHL and that is clearly because goals are supposed to be easier to score. The Shooting Percentage statistic is adept at displaying this when you compare our teams’ shooting at 5v5 versus when they have a man advantage. Check out Natural Stat Trick‘s two charts below showing how a player’s scoring odds typically go up when the opposition is sitting in the sin bin.
Shooting Percentage (5v5)
Shooting Percentage (PP)
As suggested, almost every Winnipeg player saw their percentage improve on the powerplay with the exception of two key forwards. Despite having the 3rd most PP ice-time last season, Ehlers was unable to score any goals on 29 shots so his 0% shooting is obviously well below his 5 on 5 rate (10.36%). At least Fly still was able to make an impact with 7 assists, including 5 of the primary variety. The other player to see their shooting prowess drop on the powerplay was Connor, with a 13.92% at 5v5 sinking to 10.64% on the PP. Just a guess, but the reason for that might be because everyone and their dog knows that Winnipeg’s PP is trying to set up KFC for a shot so they are prepared for it more often than not. Too lazy to do a huge review of other NHL players to confirm that, but I did see that Connor McDavid’s shooting percentage only raised slightly from 5v5 versus the PP (10.8% to 11.11%). At least he has Leon Draisaitl to draw attention (he scored 21 of his 41 goals with a man advantage and his shooting percentage from 5v5 to PP jumped from 13% to 24%).
Talk about thriving in a new environment, as Monahan went from 12.5% shooting with the Montreal Canadiens to 19.4% with the Winnipeg Jets. He was firing a crazy 18.75% with Winnipeg at 5 on 5 and that would have given him the 11th best shooting percentage in the NHL if he did that for the entire season. In the end when you combined his results with Montreal, Monahan ended up with 12.73% for the entire season in all situations, good for 97th in the NHL (more than 300 mins played). The Jets other best players shooting-wise were Vilardi (44th) and Connor (75th). Dillon’s 10.53% was tied for 6th for defensemen with more than 200 mins, beating players like Adam Fox (10.34%) and Charlie McAvoy (9.28%).
I think Morgan Barron‘s 11.25% shooting percentage at 5 on 5 supports the need to put him in a place where he will get more opportunities to direct pucks on goaltenders, ergo my advocating for his promotion to the 3rd line next season. Also in my lines above, having Lowry surrounded by good or decent shooters (Vilardi 15.5% & Perfetti 10.19%) would hopefully result in more red lights being turned on if the trio could maintain puck dominance.
Probably could take a whole lot more from those charts, however I want to dig even deeper into the Winnipeg Jets shooting to not only see how frequently they are scoring goals at 5 on 5 but also try to grasp how often the players are firing pucks on goaltenders. It’s all fine & nice to have a shooting percentage above 10%, but it’s much less exciting if too much time passes between shots. The result was the chart I created below, outlining every Jets’ even strength minutes and shots, allowing me to determine exactly how much 5v5 ice-time each player needed to get one shot on net (on average).
Shot Frequency (5v5)
I’m not sure what I was hoping to get out of this exercise, but there are some things that pop out to me when I scan the above information. The first is just how infrequently NHL players get to direct a shot on opposing goaltenders at 5 on 5. It is pretty crazy when elite superstars like Matthews & MacKinnon only get 1 shot every 5 or 6 shifts and average NHLers have to wait 12 to 16 near minute-long outings between pucks on net. A second is that it is hardly surprising that Winnipeg snipers like Connor (6:20) & Toffoli (6:20) are putting the puck on the net frequently. Their numbers are fairly close to some of the NHL best goal scorers like Matthews, Pastrnak, MacKinnon, & Kucherov (5:01-6:28). While I expected Ehlers to be up there (5:35), I didn’t think he would once again be the best of Winnipeg’s regular forwards.
I get that Scheifele views himself as a playmaker and I’ll admit that he is very good in that role, but his 11:25 minute average between shots really needs to be reduced in 2024-25 if he wants to get the most out of his game. The Jets’ top center has proven that he can pile up the goals in the NHL when he takes a more “shoot first” attitude. I am not suggesting he abandon the pass entirely, but rather that he opt for the shot about 10% more often than last season. Winnipeg could drop into the bottom 16 in goals scored next year, so more goals from Scheifele will be much needed if the franchise wants to avoid the race for a wildcard spot.
Otherwise, I am fairly happy with the frequency players like Perfetti, Vilardi, & Niederreiter were shooting the puck last year, however I guess Namestnikov & Gustafsson could also try to focus on directing pucks on goalies more often.
A very early assessment of the Central Division suggests that the Nashville Predators & Utah hockey club improved their rosters, while the Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, & Colorado Avalanche have all taken small steps backwards. Should be an interesting season…..
Since I felt I hadn’t done enough diving into the stats, I also thought I would break down scoring by NHL forwards to try and determine what the expected point ranges should be for 1st liners (top 96 scorers), 2nd liners (next 96), 3rd liners (next 96), 4th liners (next 96), and then the remainder of forwards. It was quite the surprising little exercise…check it out:
I have to say that I found it a bit shocking to see that the range of points for “second liners” was in the 35 to 55 pt range. Obviously bottom six NHL forwards don’t impact the scoresheet as much as us common fans think with a range of 10 to 35 pt output on average.
Since the NHL increased from 30 to 32 teams, I don’t really see any reduction in the point ranges due to “watering down” of the talent pool. It has resulted in all lines actually slightly increasing their offensive output, though it is most noticeable in the top six. Looking at the Jets’ top scorers from last season, four of the forwards finished in the 1st line category: Scheifele (72 pts), Connor (61), Ehlers (61), & Monahan (59). They also had six players in the 2nd line category: Toffoli (55 pts), Perfetti (38), Namestnikov (37), Vilardi (36), Appleton (36), & Lowry (35). Two Jets ended up in the 3rd line category: Niederreiter (34 pts) and Iafallo (27).
Would love to hear any feedback or observations on the article….even my suggestion of putting Lowry at the 2C spot. Fortunately, I can sluff off responsibility by suggesting that Garrett Hohl of The Five Hohl first put the thought into my head. Or maybe you have your own lineup suggestion for 2024/25? While I tried to point out anything I found interesting in the plethora of data I included, I likely only skimmed the surface of what can be gleaned from the Winnipeg Jets’ 5 on 5 play last season. So if I missed something that you find pertinent, please leave a comment below.
