The Winnipeg Jets probably stole another game last night in Saint Paul…which is getting to be quite the habit for our hockey club. Through 10 contests, last year’s President’s Trophy winners have been outshot in 9 games. Yet, despite the high level of rubber heading at their goaltenders, the True Northers have somehow managed to walk away with a 7-3-0 record.
Tuesday’s action started off with some wide open hockey in the 1st period, where the two teams combined for 26 shots. Some good eye-hand coordination paid off for Winnipeg though, when Gabriel Vilardi knocked a rebound out of the air to open the scoring and then Vladislav Namestnikov deflected another shortly after. The Jets allowed Minnesota to storm back in the 2nd period, where getting outplayed is becoming the norm (shots 13-5 for the Wild). Things looked bleak early in the 3rd period when a powerplay marker gave the opposition their first lead of the contest, but the new checking line of Morgan Barron, Nino Niederreiter, & Gustav Nyquist tied things up shortly after the midway mark. That led to some extra hockey and once Winnipeg was able to get the puck in OT, superstars Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, & Kyle Connor went to work to score the walk off goal.
Head coach Scott Arniel was not happy after the Jets’ effort in the last game, I don’t think he will be thrilled with tonight’s performance either. Especially after he stressed the importance of playing a full 60 minutes only to have another mid-game “nap” occur for the NHL’s oldest team.
Logan Stanley…..with a pair of assists last night, Big Stan now has 5 even strength points, which is good enough for a tie for 2nd on the Jets – only trailing Scheifele’s 6. The defenseman also has an On Ice Goals % (5 on 5) of 57.1% this season, which puts him in tie for 82nd for defenders with over 10 minutes of ice-time. However, the underlying numbers are still very poor, with his On Ice Expected Goals % of 36.3% putting him in 223rd place for d-men (7th defenseman territory).
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Okay, so the Winnipeg Jets are now 10 games into the NHL’s 2025-26 campaign….and of course when 12.19512195% of a season is in the books, it is time to dive into the stats to see what the numbers can tell us. Lets ease in with some of the highlights:
- Tied for 7th in the NHL with 14 pts.
- Tied for 12th in Goals For (34)
- 3rd in the NHL in Goals Against (25)
- Tied for 4th in Goals Differential (+9)
- Tied for 3rd in Regulation Wins (6)
- Tied for 7th in Power Play conversion (28.1%)
- 3rd best Penalty Kill in the NHL (92.1%)
Then the True Northers’ star players are playing like it:
- Mark Scheifele: Tied for 4th in Goals / Tied for 6th in Points
- Kyle Connor: Tied for 21st in Goals / Tied for 22nd in Points
- Connor Hellebuyck: 6th in GAA (2.16) / 5th in Save% (.926) / 4th in GSAE (+8.7)
- Josh Morrissey: Tied for 7th in defensemen points (8) / Tied for 17th in On Ice Goals %
All good things up until now….but the 5 on 5 data is not so uplifting. When playing at even strength, Winnipeg has managed a 50% Actual Goals Percentage through the opening 10 matches, so that means the Jets are relying on special teams to find the extra goals needed to win games. That break-even ratio puts them in a tie for 17th in the NHL in that category, which isn’t what you expect from a playoff team.
Sadly, the shooting & chance creation stats make the above ranking look good. When it comes to shot attempts (Corsi) and unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick), the True Northers have ratings in the 41-42% range and the Expected Goals number is 42.81%. Those are what you expect from a franchise hoping to draft Gavin McKenna with the 1st overall draft pick next summer (31st & 32nd in NHL)…not the defending best regular season team.
In the end, we are left with a fairly conflicting view of things. Winnipeg’s actual 7-3-0 record puts them in the top 4 in the Western Conference. Yet they have played a mere 3 clubs that qualified for the playoffs last year and only beat one of them (MIN). Maybe the eye-test tells you the Jets are doing as good as can be expected without missing players like Dylan Samberg, Adam Lowry, & Cole Perfetti? But are they really playing okay…or possibly just thriving on an easy schedule? Then the shot & scoring production stats are downright pathetic. What is a fan to think?
I wish that I had the answer. In all honesty, we all knew how important Samberg was after the Jets played closer to .500 hockey when he was out last year. I still don’t remember Winnipeg giving up all these high quality scoring chances then though. Maybe it is captain Lowry that is that other missing factor? The guy is the heart & soul of the roster and often can drag the boys into the fight…something that surely could have been used many times these past 10 games. Then I can’t forget young Perfetti’s impact too. Another top 6 scorer back in the line up, the ability for the coaching staff to deploy the lines they mapped out in training camp, another threat for the powerplay, etc….how much of a difference can that account for?
Well, the next 3 weeks should give us the opportunity to find out….if no one else gets hurt in the meantime (fingers crossed). Fortunately the reinforcements won’t all take that long to return to the ice, as the captain just shed the no contact jersey and participated in a full practice. Word on the streets indicates that Lowry could return as early as next game (CHI), though conservative estimates say it might wait until the next match (PIT). It will likely be Cole who is next back in a Jets’ uniform after that, as he is skating on his own already after sustaining a high ankle sprain. Some sites are predicting a mid-November return for the young winger, which would have him miss another 7 games. Finally, the key cog of Winnipeg’s shutdown defense is the farthest from making his debut this year. On the positive side, Samberg has been skating throughout his recovery…so once that bone heals enough for contact, the wait shouldn’t be long. ESPN is suggesting a November 23rd return for a rematch with the Minnesota Wild, leaving the fans & Jets’ goalies to suffer another 10 games.
After the team has some games under their belt to gel with a full healthy roster for the coaching staff to play with, maybe sometime in early December, will we really be able to answer the question the title of this article posed…who are the Winnipeg Jets?
If I was forced to answer right now…..I would have to say the True Northers are a sheep in wolf’s clothing. Pretty scary record, but not much there to back the win-loss column up. Fortunately, there are some positives to draw on, like the special teams play and goaltending, so if the missing players can fix the 5 on 5 play, our Jets just might become factors in the post-season.
