If you ever get the opportunity to talk to an advanced stats guru about how one should go about using the numbers to predict who will lift the Stanley Cup next….they will often say that 5 on 5 play is the best indicator of how a team will actually perform in the playoffs. They will mention that having a consistently successful powerplay unit is also important, but they will tell you to key in on the regular season stats if you want to see which squad should have the best chance of success.
Two good measuring sticks for even strength play are the Goals % statistic (a team’s percentage of actual goals scored) and the xGoals % stat (a team’s percentage of expected goals). These two categories are best used in conjunction with each other, but I will wait until after we look at the graphic below to explain exactly why. To try and reinforce the stance of the Stats Geniuses, the chart shows the NHL’s top 5 franchises in xGoals % from last season (2023-24):
Perhaps you will notice that it includes the Stanley Cup Champions (Florida in 5th), the runner ups (Edmonton in 1st), the Western Conference finalists (Dallas in 4th), a winner of one post-season round (Carolina in 2nd), and one franchise that lost in the opening round (Los Angeles in 3rd).
The Cup finalist Oilers & Panthers were also in the top 5 in the Goals % category last season, so as noted above, both of the stats can be good indicators of potential playoff success. However, you will be warned not to trust the Goals % number on it’s own, because if it is not supported by a similar xGoals % rating then it might be a sign that squad is overperforming expectations. One example of this is last year’s Winnipeg Jets, who finished with the best Goals % in the league, but were closer to middle of the pack in the xGoals % stat (13th). The reason for that is the play of Connor Hellebuyck and his ability to mask real deficiencies that can be exposed in the playoffs. Besides goaltending, another reason for a difference in the two stats is because a team is scoring at a rate way higher than the stats suggest they should…and that is an issue because probability says that won’t likely continue forever.
Now that we have established that the Goals % and xGoals % stats can be pretty handy, lets move on to a look at what NHL squads have excelled in those categories in 2024-25. The charts below should tell us which fanbases have a reasonable chance at witnessing some post-season heroics from their teams.
The first thing that pops out to me from the above graphic is the talent level on the 10 franchises involved. I would have no issues believing that the next team name to be inscribed on Lord Stanley is up there somewhere. There are a couple of surprises in there too, with non-playoff teams like the Philadelphia Flyers & Utah Hockey Club performing well in the expected goal categories. It seems that subpar goaltending is partly the culprit for those two franchises missing out on the league’s second season.
Once again, the Winnipeg Jets are sitting atop the NHL with the highest actual goals percentage, though the Los Angeles Kings are right at their heels and could pass them over the final stretch. The positive note for fans of the True North franchise is that our club is also in the top 10 in the expected goals category this season (tied for 6th with COL). So maybe we can expect a better fate than last year?
Admittedly, I am not an expert….but I think the small differences between the 2 key stats for the Kings, Panthers, Avalanche, & Knights suggest that they could be top contenders this season. There definitely could be a case made for the Hurricanes and Oilers though, as both squads are scoring at a lower rate than expected and could become more dangerous if they can live up to the xGoals % stats they earn with their play and their tenders start making some big stops. Our Jets are possibly in that 2nd group with Carolina & Edmonton because they rely on the play of Bucky quite a bit to help their actual goals be better than expected. Washington is another example of the goalies doing more than their fair share of the heavy lifting, but Winnipeg is a bit better at creating offense (according to xG stats) so should have a slight edge on their fellow President Trophy contender.
You might be wondering where good teams like the Stars, Lightning, & Maple Leafs sit? Well, Dallas is 14th for xGoals %, while Tampa Bay is slightly ahead in 12th, and Toronto is holding onto 15th. All three of those franchises are getting more actual goals (in top 10) than expected and once again stellar goaltending (Stolarz, Vasilevskiy, Oettinger) is playing a role in that.
Before I wrap this up, I thought I would recognize the unbelievable second half of the season the St. Louis Blues have had. A 12 game winning streak with the Jets & Oilers up next on their schedule….but does their late charge put them in the Cup Contender category? Well, to try and find out, below is the xGoal % chart for the last 20 games played so lets check out the NHL’s top 10 hottest teams (expected goals-wise).
Eight out of the 10 teams from our year-long chart made it once again, but Washington & Edmonton fell out and were replaced by Columbus & surging St. Louis. The Oilers drop can easily be explained by the lack of Connor McDavid & Leon Draisaitl, while the Capitals struggles are more related to the team’s goaltending having issues due to injuries late in the year.
To me, the above graphic reinforces the feeling that the East’s top two contenders are the Carolina Hurricanes & Florida Panthers, while the West is full of solid squads like the Los Angeles Kings, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, & Winnipeg Jets. But since the 4 Nations Face-Off, the red-hot St. Louis Blues have to be included in that group too.
Now I am sure more than one of you are wondering again where the 3rd place Dallas Stars are in all this. Well, while the Texans are 5th in the actual goals percentage over the entire season, they drop to 14th in the expected goal percentage. However, over the past 20 contests that gap has gotten worse, with the Stars in 8th for Goals % but all the way down to 29th in xGoals %. Dallas’ Fenwick (unblocked shots) numbers are even worse (43.7%) to put them as the 2nd worst club in the NHL over their recent contests. Despite those statistical troubles, the Stars have managed to go 16-4-3 thanks to great goaltending, but this has to be a worrying sign for the team as the playoffs approach. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a similar situation to Dallas, where their Goals % is very good over the entire season (5th) at 54.51%, but the xGoals % (15th) is less impressive at 50.16%. According to the numbers, both teams will need their goalies to keep up their stellar play if they want to make a run.
Let me hear in the Comment section whether you found this article informative. For me, it was a fun way to kill a Sunday afternoon and it has made me feel slightly better about the Jets’ chances come playoff time.
