Pittsburgh Penguins’ forward Connar Dewar celebrates a goal against the Utah Mammoth.
Tenei koutou katoa, It’s your tenacious Kiwi limpet, back for another number crunch.
If you missed the first article, True Value: An Apples vs Apples Scouting Tool, it goes into detail about how I went about creating the True Value metric, so please click the link to give it a read.
Last week, I thought my True Value (TV) metric found a gem in Alex Newhook, who I wrongly assumed was undervalued. Turns out MTL has him on their 2nd line, according to Daily Faceoff, as LW, so his value is probably more than I originally anticipated. And in my opinion, he’s at the right level for his talent.
This got me thinking about possible tiers of forwards. There are four lines on a team, each has about 100 players across the league (32 x 3 =96). However, it’s actually like a pyramid in terms of players who can play on those lines.
Last year the league used 940 players. I know because I trawled through all their TOI statistics, so you will never have to…
1ST LINE: TV = 30 plus points.
TOI: 18-23 mins approx.
Worth: Multiple first round picks.
Let’s say there are 80-120 1st line ready players in the league. Sadly, it’s not spread evenly with 3 each, but good teams stockpile 4 or 5 and bad teams have 1-2, we arguably have 2, plus Vilardi.
2ND LINE: TV = 24-30 points.
TOI: 15-18 mins approx.
Worth: Approximately a first round pick.
Now we go to the 2nd line. lets say there are 100-150 talents ready for the 2nd line. We have 1-2 Cole Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi. Although, that’s dubious as TV slightly prefers Adam Lowry and Morgan Barron because of their doghouse PK minutes.
3RD LINE: TV = 18-25 points.
TOI: 11-15 mins approx.
Worth: a 3rd-5th round pick.
Now this is the departure point. There are probably 200-300 3rd liners in the league, AHL, overseas or amongst ascending young talents. Alex Iafallo is a tweener on the cusp with TV of 19.2 pts.
Plenty of these to pick from. Which is why the likes of Iafallo, Vladislav Namestnikov and Nino Niederreiter are now expendable. Might as well chance your arm on a young player with more potential upside, since they’re so plentiful.
4TH LINE: TV = 12-20.
TOI: 8-11 mins approx.
Worth: 6th-7th round pick.
There are probably 500+ guys who could fill roles here, and that’s the distinction. Teams fit players that fill their overall deficiencies in even strength and special teams, such as large size, good defenders, fast skaters, etc. Or players that suit the style of hockey that occurs in the playoffs. 3rd and 4th liners are common and you get them to fill roles such as PK, shutting down other teams’ top 6’s, fighter, etc. in an attempt to repair team faults.
Which brings me to TVs most useful usage: I think it’s finding 2nd liners.
Any idiot can see a 1st liner, you can see them from space, but trawling through 3rd and 4th liners looking for those gems that could step up is the sweet spot. So that’s what I’ve been doing, looking for undervalued, before they get promoted. It’s not hard as bottom liners get the worst shifts, which plays into the metric and masks their true potential.
Now that I have 120+ specially screened and carefully selected forwards, you can see who is scoring around Vilardi (TV 23.3), peak Perfetti (TV 21.3), peak Lowry (TV 25.6 pts), Barron (TV 24 pts), then get out and actually scout them.
They hopefully cost a 3rd-line price, but if they can be a 2nd liner they’ll instantly double or triple in value.
Keep trading for these types, and at worst you’ve bought and paid for solid 3rd liners. And lord knows we could have used some of them last season, when only our 1st line were troubling the opposing goaltenders.
Also, these underrated 3rd and 4th liners, have usually been playing PK, which means on ES they’re probably decent defensively. Move them up to 2nd line, take them off PK and possibly put them on PP2 and presto you’ve augmented their output. Boost their minutes to the 2nd line norm, and there’s your 50 point 2nd line player.
Mostly because I finally figured out how, but also to assist in this article, I used the data set to make a few new metrics. TV takes the player down to ES which is great for comparing apples for apples. But what happens if we want to shine up the apples to see if we can find a gold one. Enter KPV, KP18 amd KPe. Variations on the basic idea of switching PK mins to PP mins. Something more like a 2nd liners profile.
Kill Power Value not only sounds kick-ass, but also conveniently shortens to KPV. A metric that takes a players PK minutes and converts them to PP mins, something that took quite a bit of time with a calculator, and was too hard to guestimate. It’s showing the potential of the player on a different team, where they would be valued higher. Good for looking at 3rd and 4th line worker bees with potential.
To that end, Kill Power 18 (KP18) normalises KPV to 18 mins for an approximate 2nd Line role. Thus the points typically go down for the 1st Liners and up for the 3rd and 4ths. KP18 allows you to compare everyone against each other as a 2nd liner.
Kill Power Equivalency (KPe) is KPV expressed with the standard NHLe goal and assist values. Basically its the expected NHLe rating after switching PK and PP times. With the exact same TOI they had this season. So wrong in my eyes, but it will still show who could improve from switching special teams. For example: Brandon Hagel from my earlier article, and actual hockey, now has an adjusted NHLe of 107.1pts in 2025, and 123.9pts NHLe in 2026.
MASSIVE DISCLAIMER: I have never knowingly watched these players before they popped up on my TV charts. Maths watched them and maths liked them. Furthermore, the list was compiled with only 2026 stats in mind. Only afterwards did I decide to chart a second earlier year. I imagine, a proper scouting department would have years of these types of scores charted.
Connor Dewar (TV 38.3 & 34.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line centre for Penguins.
Age: 27 years-old, born in Gilbert Plains, Manitoba.
Height/Weight: 5ft 10in, 187lb.
Contract: 2 x $2.25m
2024-25: 17 games, 4 goals, 3 assists.
2025-26: 78 games, 20 goals, 22 assists.
One that got away? Local lad Dewar had himself a breakout year at the Penguins.
He is one of the two big finds from the metric. His 34.2 pt TV score is just behind another Connor I’ve never seen play, Connor McDavid (TV 37.1), and Nathan Mackinnon (TV 34.4), who sadly I have seen too much of. He’s also one above Macklin Celebrini (TV 32.8).
Dewar is one who really benefits from changing PK to PP with an expected extra 3.7 goals and 11.4 pts total. That makes him a defensively sound 53pt centre. Now up his minutes from 13.9 to 18 and he’s an 80pt centre who defends.
Are his numbers an anomaly? There are 2 strong years, although, 2025 was a small sample size.
It doesn’t matter that much, he put up top 10 player in the league numbers. Even if he regresses 30%, you have a 50pt player at centre, who defends, and is from your hometown.
He seems to be a better goal scorer than passer by the looks. Great to me, but maybe not to a coach. Also, despite being an inch taller and 6 pounds heavier than wee Viggo, he is on the small side. Don’t know if he’s “short. but plays big“, or even what that means. Bring him home! He can pick up Jonah Woo on the way.
(KP18: 80.9 pts & 80.9 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 85%
Parker Kelly (TV 15.7 & 31 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Avs
Age: 27.5 years-old, Born in Lakelands, Minnesota
Height/Weight: 6ft 2in, 205lb.
Contract: 4 x $1.7m
2024-25: 80 games, 8 goals, 11 assists.
2025-26: 82 games, 21 goals, 14 assists.
This is the other big one. He stands out like a sore thumb. A 4th liner putting up 1st liner numbers.
Defensive LW had a FREAKISH breakout year with 35 points, including 21 goals, in only 12:42 mins/secs per game.
Led his team win hits with 177 hits, and 52 blocked shots. In 2025, it was 100 hits and 72 blocked shots. He’s more of a gamble, but the downside is a big, physical 3rd liner putting up 35 points and making hits left right and centre.
A punt I’d take, depending on the price. The aim is to find there guys while their org still thinks the breakout was a blip. Getting a guy like this as a throw in, in a bigger deal is a good way to disguise your unbridled interest. He’s basically a Winnipeg boy, bring him home!
(KP18: 38.8 pts & 70.7 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 65%
Ryan McLeod (TV 29.7 pts & 22.1 pts)
POS: 2nd or 3rd line centre for Sabres
Age: 27.4 years-old, born in Mississauga, Ontario.
Height/Weight: 6ft 3in, 207lb.
Contract: 4 x $5m
2024-25: 79 games, 22 goals, 33 assists.
2025-26: 81 games, 14 goals, 40 assists.
This guy could actually be gettable, and soon.
He could be the centrepiece of a Helly deal and I’m all for it. Weirdly scored 5 short-handed goals last season, easily the most in the league.
Was even better last year with TV of 29.7. Changing PK to PP in 2025 results in an expected extra 3.2 goals and 8.3 pts total. Or 3.5 goals and 9.1 pts total in 2026.
Tall, fast skater and a decent defender just not overly physical, more finesse – I heard somewhere. He ticks a lot of our boxes though. Hopefully a key piece in a Helly trade. Easy 2C for me. Already is. Despite the lower TV in 2026 (lack of goals), his KP18 is still 64pts.
(KP18: 70.7 pts & 63.8 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 95%
Bobby McMann (TV 28.9 & 28.4 = 25.8 30.7 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Penguins
Age: 30.1 years-old, born in Wainwright, Alberta.
Height/Weight: 6ft 2in, 217lb.
Contract: 1 x $1.5m
2024-25: 74 games, 20 goals, 13 assists.
2025-26: 78 games, 29 goals, 17 assists.
2025-26 (TOR): 60 games, 19 goals, 13 assists
2025-26 (SEA): 18 games, 10 goals, 4 assists
Another big journeyman. This one’s stats show maybe some growth, but more importantly plenty of stability. He’s older though, which also likely makes him easier to acquire.
Again, if the skating and defending checks out, I don’t see why not. Big body wing putting up 60 pts? Going, going gone! Sold, to the team over there with a bunch of midgets.
At the beginning of the month, I would have been all over him, but Chevy has the Midas touch at the moment, and I believe he can do, if not better, then younger at least.
(KP18: 62.9 pts & 61.8 = 51.4 & 71.1 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 65%
Justin Brazeau (TV 16.1 & 27.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Penguins
Age: 28.6 years-old, born in New Liskeard, Ontario.
Height/Weight: 6ft 6in, 232lb.
Contract: 1 x $1.5m
2024-25: 57 games, 10 goals, 10 assists.
2025-26: 64 games, 17 goals, 17 assists.
Big journeyman, who I guess parks the bus and gets greasy goals. That ticks a few boxes, but he seems injury plagued and maybe not the best skater? Again a guess. I’ve never seen him, and if I did, I would probably cross the street.
Still, a healthy season of 50pts and some intimidation wouldn’t go amiss.
(KP18: 40 pts & 61.8 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 35%
A.J. Greer (TV 16.5 & 27.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Panthers.
Age: 29.6 years-old, born in Joliette, Quebec.
Height/Weight: 6ft 3in, 224lb.
Contract: 1 x $1.5m
2024-25: 81 games, 6 goals, 11 assists.
2025-26: 78 games, 17 goals, 15 assists.
Another big journeyman.
Late bloomer or anomaly? That’s the argument the scout needs to sort out for most of these guys. As with almost everything, it’s probably a cross between the two. I err in favour of, if you’ve done something once you maybe do it again. Do it twice and it’s probably do it again.
(KP18: 34.1 pts & 54.3 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 25%
Ryan Poehling (TV 24.9 & 24.2 pts) – 3rd line centre for Anaheim
Age: 27.5 years-old, born in Lakelands, Minnesota.
Height/Weight: 6ft 2in, 205lb.
Contract: 3x $3.75m
2024-25: 68 games, 12 goals, 19 assists.
2025-26: 75 games, 11 goals, 25 assists.
Was a former first round pick I just found out, so that sucks… but 25th overall, so not even lottery. Youngish, biggish, fingers-crossed quickish, and he’s from Winnipeg-ish.
He scores lower in TV because his points are mostly assists. But that doesn’t bother you, he’s fine. His NHLe normalised to 18 mins is 71.6 pts and 74.9 pts respectively.
For some reason, the Ducks could do with some cap relief. I see a cheeky Danny Zhilkin, Brad Lambert, or even Brayden Yager trade?
(KP18: 62 pts & 59.8 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 65%
Mathieu Olivier (TV 22.3 & 26.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line centre for Columbus
Age: 29.3 years-old, born in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Height/Weight: 6ft 1in, 231lb.
Contract: 4 x $3m
2024-25: 82 games, 18 goals, 14 assists.
2025-26: 61 games, 15 goals, 11 assists.
Another big journeyman, same concerns about skating and age as most of the others. Note: I have deliberately steered away from those under 25, due to them being more coveted than thir actual worth. It’s like a probably losing lotto ticket is worth more to the holder than last week’s losing ticket.
Also, not a lot of PK time, so probably a marginal defender.
A low-end 2C, there for his shot-stopping stockiness. Id take him as a make-weight in a bigger trade, but wouldn’t rush to the bat-phone to get him in.
(KP18: 47 pts & 51.7 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 35%
*****
NOT MY RECOMENDATIONS: Possible Sabre targets in a Helly trade.
Jack Quinn (TV 18.8 & 23 pts)
POS: 2nd or 3rd line right wing for Sabres
Age: 24.8 years-old, born in Ontario.
Height/Weight: 5ft 11in, 185lb.
Contract: 2 x $3.75m
2024-25: 74 games, 15 goals, 24 assists.
2025-26: 81 games, 14 goals, 40 assists.
Young Perfetti-sized winger, his twin basically. Same height, same weight, same age-ish, same Ontario origin, same TV score. Could also be a piece in a Helly trade.
He’s like Perfetti-brand box of chocolates. You never know what you’ll get, but odds are one of them has to be to our taste. Overall, Quinn profiles as a 60 pt player with meh defence. I suspect most 2nd lines carry one of these guys .
(KP18 62 pts & 56.2 pts) Perf25=54.9pts
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 90%
Noah Ostlund (TV 20.7 pts)
POS: 3rd line centre/winger for Sabres
Age: 22.3 years-old, Born in Stockholm, Sweden
Height/Weight: 5ft 11in, 180lb.
Contract: ELC
2025-26: 60 games, 11 goals, 16 assists.
Promising with a 36.9 NHLe in his first season in NHL. If he adds weight, he could be good.
Didn’t play PK, so don’t know about his defence. But again could be a part of a Helly deal. Got a team leading plus-20 in the AHL, the year before.
(KP18: 45.4 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 35%
Honourable Mentions:
Kailer Yamamoto (TV 25.3), Adam Gaudette (TV 23.2 pts), Tye Kartye (TV 22.8 pts).
Thanks all for taking the time to read, I hope you’re not all having flashbacks to traumatic maths classes of the past. Let me hear it in the Comment section about what you think of these potential targets….should the Winnipeg Jets actively pursue any of them?
Next up, I believe BOJA will be looking at some of these same players from a different statistical perspective, and adding value with different filters. Should be interesting to see what the metrics he uses say about the 13 players.
