With only 9 games left on the National Hockey League’s schedule, the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars find themselves in a sprint to the finish line that truly has the potential to come down to the wire before a winner is declared. Even though Winnipeg has held on to the top spot of the Central Division for most of the regular season, the race for the title has heated up since the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament concluded. When Team Canada lifted the championship trophy in late February, our franchise held a 9 point lead (81 pts) over Dallas (72 pts)…but over the past 5 weeks that gap has now shrunk to 4 points.
The Jets have played 17 games since the 4 Nations, accumulating a 11-5-1 record while coming out victorious versus some strong clubs like the Edmonton Oilers, Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, and of course a win over their Texan rivals. The Stars have been piling up the W’s since the break too, with a 13-3-2 record including victories against the Los Angeles Kings, Edmonton Oilers, & New Jersey Devils.
Of course, the trade deadline fell in the above period and both franchises’ General Managers did some things to help their squads. Winnipeg’s Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t take a big swing and stuck to adding some depth in Brandon Tanev & Luke Schenn, while Dallas’ Jim Nill went for the homerun when he picked up Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes.
Here are ESPN’s standings, showing the top 5 of the Central Division before any of Sunday’s slate of games kicked off:
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With a winning percentage of 71.2% on the 2024-25 season, Winnipeg has been slightly less effective since the break (67.6%) while Dallas has roared to an impressive 77.8% win rate in their 18 contests. So it might be easy to jump to the conclusion that the Jets have been performing below their usual standard, while the Stars are playing lights out.
Well, despite what the win-loss columns are telling us, the level of play from both franchises over that stretch of time doesn’t really match their records….at least according to the Expected Goals (xG) statistics from MoneyPuck.
The chart below outlines how often the Winnipeg Jets won the xG Battle over their last 17 matches (5 on 5 play), indicating that the Manitobans have finished on top 70.6% of the time (12 out of 17). Maybe even more importantly, the True Northers have showed a decent level of consistency, never dipping below the 40% xG plateau.
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In comparison, the hot Dallas Stars’ xG statistics (5 on 5 play) show a roller coaster ride over their 18 games since the break, peaking over the 60% mark on four occasions but also dipping below the 40% line in 8 of their contests. The biggest thing I took from the graphic was that the Texans’ have only won the even strength xG Battle 44.4% of the time during their hot streak, which isn’t typically a sign of a strong playoff contender. Obviously, it is a smallish sample size and the Stars have other aspects they can lean on, as I will discuss more after you check out the chart below.
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The chart above for the Stars actually matches what a lot of fans are saying on affiliate Defending Big D, as the members’ comments often question whether the current level of play will result in playoff success. It seems a big key in a few of the recent victories was the goaltending play from Jake Oettinger & Casey DeSmith as Dallas found themselves on the wrong side of the possession battle, yet the offense is going well with at least 3 goals scored in 7 of their last 8 outings. Jason Robertson is playing a role in that, with 4 goals & 7 points in his last 3 games to hit the 75 point plateau on the season. More good news for Dallas…after a slow start in Texas, Mikko Rantanen has heated up with 7 points in the Finn’s last 4 matches to have 11 pts in 11 games since the trade. Another important factor will be Stars’ players coming back from long-term injuries…news has it that Tyler Seguin (20 pts in 19 gms) is very close to returning, but the timetable for star defender Miro Heiskanen (25 pts in 50 gms) might extend into the second round of the playoffs.
When it comes to the Jets, they have two important strengths in goaltending and team defense. Obviously, Connor Hellebuyck is going to give his team an advantage, leading the NHL in all four key goalie stats, but that won’t stop questions about the level of Bucky’s play come post-season time. The other boost the Peggers get is from the defensive system they play, allowing Winnipeg to be the 7th best team in the league when it comes to xG% (52.75%) compared to Dallas’ 14th best rating of 50.42%. Advanced stats gurus will tell you that a team’s play at 5 on 5 during the regular season is more telling about their playoff potential than past post-season performances. If so, the Jets could have a slight edge as they prep for a run at the Stanley Cup. The emergence of Dylan Samberg has taken some of the heat off top defender Josh Morrissey and the addition of Luke Schenn has added some important nastiness to the Jets back end. Injuries to Gabriel Vilardi & Neal Pionk have challenged Winnipeg’s depth recently, but it may just have helped the team re-focus on coach Scott Arniel’s system since they have done a good job of limiting high danger scoring chances against lately.
Two very good hockey clubs….it should be an entertaining finish in the race to avoid the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the post-season. Speaking of that, might as well check to see what is in store for both franchises in the final 9 games….
The Winnipeg Jets have won two impressive victories in a row but they will need to keep that going against the desperate Vancouver Canucks and Pacific Division juggernauts, the Los Angeles Kings & Vegas Golden Knights. Then it is a possible trap game against the Hockey Club formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes before a pair of huge Central Division games against the Stars & St. Louis Blues. The final stretch is easier, but still includes one final clash against the Edmonton Oilers. Check out the full schedule from ESPN below:
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The Dallas Stars certainly have the advantage when it comes to the remaining schedule and have a good opportunity to extend their current 5 game winning streak to 8 with their next three opponents. Things get a bit rougher for the Texans in their next three contests, including a key match up versus the Jets, before they get to finish their campaign with three more non-playoff teams. Check out the Stars’ schedule via ESPN below:
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Well, I am not sure all that will make anyone feel better or worse about the Winnipeg Jets’ chances of locking up the Central Division title….but I hope that you at least found it interesting.
As of Sunday, MoneyPuck has the Jets’ odds at 78.3% to lock up 1st place in their division while also predicting Winnipeg will end up with 115 points (tied w/ Washington). That leaves the Dallas Stars with a 21.7% chance to make the late charge successfully and outdo MoneyPuck’s estimated 111 pts finish to the season.
Feel free to share your thoughts in the Comment section….will the True Northers get it done? With a magic number of 7, will the title get decided before the Jets-Stars clash on April 10th? What is more important – locking up a 1st round match against a wildcard team or resting players like Hellebuyck, Morrissey, etc before the playoffs?
