The entire fandom of the True North franchise was likely elated when word came out that defenseman Dylan Samberg shed the non-contact jersey in practice, signaling to one & all that Winnipeg’s best defensive player will be back in the line up for the next game. Last year the American was in the top 10 of many defensive categories, so with Sammy slipping into the 2nd pairing along side Neal Pionk…..there has to be hope that some of the Jets’ miscues will be remedied with the big guy patrolling our zone.
Other notable news on the injury front is that Gustav Nyquist is also ready to return to action after missing a handful of contests, while fellow forwards Morgan Barron & Cole Koepke are now considered day-to-day…meaning they will be available for coach Scott Arniel to deploy within the week. The only negative for the coaching staff is that Haydn Fleury appears to have taken a high hit during yesterday’s win over the Canucks, sustaining what is being deemed an “upper body” injury.
So what does this all mean for a Winnipeg Jets club that has managed to pick up 10 wins in their first 16 games despite missing some key guys from the start of the year. Perhaps the returns of Adam Lowry & Cole Perfetti are already paying dividends, if you judge the team’s effort during last night’s improved performance against Vancouver. Not that those 60 minutes were perfect….as we still witnessed the Nucks get plenty of prime scoring chances as they rolled along to over 4 Expected Goals in the contest.
Through the first 5.125% of the NHL season, Winnipeg has been a pale comparison to the squad they were during last season’s President’s Trophy run. If you projected the Jets goals for & against for the entire season, the 2025-26 campaign would see about 8.5 less goals scored by our team, yet allow 25.25 more against the Jets. The Expected Goals stats help explain why that is, with the True Northers having a 43.89% On Ice Expected Goals Percentage at 5 on 5 play this season. That 31st in the NHL ranking is a far cry from the 7th position they held last year (52.9%) or even the 13th spot Winnipeg ended up in the prior season (51.36%).
So why doesn’t the Jets’ record represent the level of play they have had to start the year? Well, a huge portion of that is on the shoulders of Connor Hellebuyck….and a lesser extent to backup Eric Comrie, who has played well this season. But Bucky has been fantastic with a +12.9 Goals Saved Above Expected through 12 starts, which has him sitting in 3rd in the NHL at this point. To put that rating into perspective somewhat, last year when Hellebuyck was picking up his second consecutive Vezina Trophy he finished the entire campaign (63 starts) with a +39.6 rating. If you projected a 60 game season for Connor at this point, he would end up with a +64.5…an unheard of rating since only two goalies since the 2008-09 season have finished over +40 (NSH Saros 46.7 & BOS Thomas 42.4 in 22-23). Another reason is Winnipeg’s shooting has been very good once again, with the snipers’ firing at a 11.95% rate (7th in NHL), a ratio comparable to last season (11.87% for 3rd). Of course, that has helped the top forward unit of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, & Gabriel Vilardi combine for an impressive 24 goals in 16 games (1.5 per gm). Guess you could throw in the performance of the special teams too, as the powerplay has been good while the penalty kill has been excellent (top 5 in NHL).
Okay, so now that we’ve established the Winnipeg Jets are kind of fortunate to be where they are in the standings….how impactful can the returns of some injured players be? Well, when it comes to a player like Samberg, we got a glimpse of that last year when our club played their worst hockey (just about .500) when Dylan was out for 11 contests. But I will rely on MoneyPuck to help drive the point home by showing just how great the Minnesotan has been at even strength the past 3 seasons.
DYLAN SAMBERG
The bottom two seasons were when Samberg was deployed on the 3rd pairing, but his numbers didn’t take a dip when he faced tougher competition on the 2nd duo last year. And that is playing with Pionk, who has only finished above the 50% mark for On Ice Expected Goals once in his career, which just happened to be when he was paired with Sammy. The American’s return will allow Winnipeg’s coaching staff the ability to thankfully drop Logan Stanley down to the 3rd pairing while giving the Jets a top 4 that should give the club a shot at squaring off against the NHL’s toughest lines. Big Stan has received more than his share of criticism from me in the past, but to be honest his play this season has actually been up to par with what a 3rd pairing guy should do. So hopefully he can keep that up….it might be difficult paired with Luke Schenn though (ranked 228 out of 229 d-men in On Ice xG%). That should result in the True Northers spending less time in the defensive zone on its own….
Yet Winnipeg will also be getting Nyquist back on the ice when they face the Seattle Kraken on Thursday. While a lot of fans may say that the veteran Swede’s impact has been less than hoped for, his underlying numbers are the best on the team (via MoneyPuck):
GUSTAV NYQUIST
Offensively, Gustav has chipped in 5 points in 11 matches, with 3 of those coming at even strength. While that may not be eye popping on its own, the veteran winger is the only Jets’ forward that has an On Ice Expected Goals rating above 50%. Interestingly, Dylan DeMelo is the only other Winnipegger to do that this season (51.4%). Nyquist is also the only forward who has been on the ice for more shot attempts & shots on goal for the Jets than the opposition managed. At worst, Arniel gets another bottom sixer that is defensively responsible to use….at best, the Swede picks up his offensive output if he is deployed with Perfetti & Jonathan Toews on the 2nd line. It is possible that he starts off on the 4th line, as Vladislav Namestnikov has been producing in the top six and might keep his spot until that begins to peter off.
Speaking of the 4th line, the news that Barron could be back in a Jets’ jersey soon will also help Winnipeg limit scoring chances against, as the defensively adept center provides size and will increase the unit’s forechecking abilities. The Bear also began the year on a bit of a scoring streak, so some more depth scoring will always help the Jets out as their schedule gets more difficult in December, January, & February. Plus another penalty killer and face off taker is never a bad thing.
Now, my predicted improvements in the Winnipeg Jets’ play might not come immediately, as it took Lowry a couple of games to look more like himself. Yet I will remain optimistic that us fans are about to watch some better hockey from our club in the near future. It will be needed with the level of parity in the NHL at an all time high, with 29 or 30 teams still grasping onto playoff hopes as we near American Thanksgiving.
BOJA’s Predicted Line Up When Healthy
CONNOR / SCHEIFELE / VILARDI
NAMESTNIKOV / TOEWS / PERFETTI
NIEDERREITER / LOWRY / NYQUIST
?????? / BARRON / IAFALLO
PEARSON / KOEPKE (undecided who goes in)
***
MORRISSEY / DEMELO
SAMBERG / PIONK
STANLEY / MILLER
FLEURY / SCHENN
Let me hear what you think is in the future for the True North franchise in the Comment section…..can our team begin to play like the juggernauts they were last season? What line combinations would you like to see when everyone is healthy? Who gets sent down to the minors & who will be wearing suits in the press box?
