While the Winnipeg Jets weren’t officially facing elimination on Tuesday evening in Game 4 when they squared off with the Dallas Stars, the franchise’s odds of moving on in the NHL Playoffs would decrease greatly if they happened to lose their 5th straight road game in the 2024-25 post-season. So, did head coach Scott Arniel and his team come up with a plan to flip the switch on that narrative?
GAME RECAP
**to be completely honest, my SI joint flared up badly last night so I didn’t watch the entire game. The following recap is based on the little I did see, the highlights on the sport shows this morning, and what the statistics said about the contest.**
When the puck dropped to kick off the match, the Jets & Stars both showed up to play so the early portions of the 1st period was evenly contested. Eight minutes in, a holding penalty to defenseman Dylan DeMelo ended up sending Dallas to the first powerplay of the game, giving the hometown club a 2 minute man-advantage to work with. Winnipeg immediately lost the draw, allowing the Stars to send a shot on net via a Mikael Granlund wrister from 30 feet out, which unfortunately slipped through Jets’ goalie Connor Hellebuyck’s equipment. DAL 1-0. The True Northers tried their best to press for the equalizer for the rest of the period, outshooting the opposition 10-5 but had a difficult time breaking down Dallas’ defensive structure to really test their tender.
A late holding penalty by the Stars carried over into the 2nd period, allowing the Jets to control the puck early in the frame. While Winnipeg couldn’t capitalize with the extra skater, they did manage to set up Nikolaj Ehlers for a low danger angle shot from the right face-off circle just 2 seconds after. The puck somehow managed to slip through Jake Oettinger’s equipment, likely one he would like back. TIE 1-1. With the game knotted, the Jets quickly had a chance to go back on the powerplay to try and use the momentum to take a lead, but an uninspired man-advantage didn’t test the Stars’ goalie very much. Once again Winnipeg outshot Dallas, this time with a smaller 10-8 advantage, yet they couldn’t grab their best opportunity of the period when Kyle Connor got stoned on a breakaway. That would have been fine if the Jets escaped the frame unscathed, but a second goal from Dallas’ Granlund from the right face-off dot didn’t give Bucky much of a chance and the Jets found themselves trailing with 2 minutes to play. DAL 2-1.
With the True Northers down a goal going into the final period, they quickly shot themselves in the foot when defender Haydn Fleury got nabbed for a highsticking penalty that drew blood. Typically for the kind of luck Winnipeg has had this year in the playoffs, they came within 3 seconds of killing off the 4 minute infraction, but Granlund completed his hat-trick with another powerplay goal from the right face-off dot. DAL 3-1. With less than 13 minutes remaining, the True Northers needed a pair of goals to extend the contest but Dallas did a fine job of playing shutdown hockey until the final horn sounded. Even a last minute Stars’ penalty and Bucky on the bench for the extra attacker couldn’t help the Jets solve Oettinger for a second time.
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FINAL SCORE: DALLAS STARS 3 WINNIPEG JETS 1
FINAL STATS
Shots: 32-24 WPG / Hits: 43-30 WPG / Face-Offs: 51.1% WPG / x Goals: 3.00 WPG – 2.24 DAL /
MoneyPuck’s Deserve to Win: 55.1% WPG / High-Medium Danger Scoring Chances: 14 to 11 DAL
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SCORING SUMMARY from ESPN
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SHOT CHART from MoneyPuck
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ADVANCED SKATER STATS from MoneyPuck
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GOALIE STATS from ESPN & MoneyPuck
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If you would like to dive deeper into the game’s stats, follow the links below to the game pages:
MoneyPuck: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars – Tuesday May 13 2025 – MoneyPuck.com
NaturalStatTrick: Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars, 2025-05-13
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BOJA’s Observations:
- Overall, this might have been the Winnipeg Jets’ best showing on the road in the NHL playoffs. Yet that doesn’t mean much when you still walk away with the loss. At least that is what the statistics are saying, but I will have to confirm that with the eye-test when I watch the entire game this afternoon. The opposition couldn’t manage a high danger shot attempt against the Jets’ goalie all night, while Winnipeg had a couple against the Stars’ net. The True Northers won the expected goals battles overall (3.00-2.24) and even strength (2.16-1.70). All good signs that didn’t end up paying off on Tuesday.
- Another very stoppable goal allowed by goaltender Connor Hellebuyck in the post-season ended up giving a good Dallas Stars team an unnecessary lead early in the game. Another sub-.900 save percentage, another negative Goals Saved Above Expected rating. Sigh. It is clear that Bucky is putting too much pressure on himself to play perfectly in the post-season, yet the results are that he ends up playing worse than he normally does in times of less pressure. Now, can this be solely cured by a good sports psychologist? Or does it also show some underlying mistrust of his teammates ability to do their part to get Winnipeg wins in the playoffs, making Hellebuyck feel that he must be superhuman to get that done?
- Continuing the above thread of thought….obviously the Jets only problem isn’t their starting goaltender, as the lack of offensive output has played a role in the team’s undoing too. The NHL’s league leading powerplay in the regular season has dried up in the playoffs and while Winnipeg’s 5 on 5 play has produced expected goals at a decent pace, the actual goals have been much more difficult to come by.
- As AIH Member Skalla pointed out in the game thread, there has to be something wrong with defenseman Dylan DeMelo in the playoffs. He had a particularly rough outing last night and was the only Jet player with less than 50% of the expected goals at even strength (28.3%). And that is not just a one time off game, as DeMelo is tied for the team worst On Ice Expected Goals % at 36.2% with Haydn Fleury for the entire playoffs. The biggest difference between the two is that Fleury has actually been on the ice for 66.7% of goals scored, while DeMelo is closer to what the stats suggested (38.5%).
- The Dallas Stars’ Mikael Granlund had an expected goals (xG) rating of 0.22 last night….yet walked away with a hattrick. Winnipeg had 5 skaters with more xG’s than that, but none of Kyle Connor (0.51), Mark Scheifele (0.43), Alex Iafallo (0.37), & Gabriel Vilardi (0.23) could find the back of the net. At least Nikolaj Ehlers (0.24) lit the lamp once.
- That makes me think that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff probably shouldn’t totally focus his attention on improving the Winnipeg Jets’ defense, as it has been their lack of scoring that has cost them more in the playoffs. Yes, Hellebuyck’s poor play has been a factor, but the lack of production from the powerplay and even strength play has been just as devastating.
Alright, time to make some breakfast and get ready to watch a game I already know my team will lose. Not the most exciting plan for the day, but at least it will let me lie on the couch & rest my faulty sacroiliac joint.
The odds are pretty low for the True Northers to mount a comeback in their series versus Dallas. Down 3-1 and facing elimination, the Winnipeg Jets will need to win 3 games in a row for the first time this post-season. They will also need to win their first road game of the year, if they can use the Canada Life Centre crowd to propel them to victory in Game 5. Finally, the Winnipeg-Atlanta franchise has a 2-8 record when facing elimination in the playoffs……yet one of those did come in the opening round. So maybe their is a chance? Well, anything can happen…..but don’t go betting large on it.
UP NEXT: Dallas Stars @ Winnipeg Jets – Thursday, May 15th @ 8:30 pm CST
