Game 3’s are pretty important in an NHL playoff series, since the winners typically have about a 70% chance of moving onto the next round. So when the action gets underway at the American Airlines Center, both franchises should be hungry….now lets find out how things went.
GAME RECAP
The Winnipeg Jets started the game off poorly when Nino Niederreiter’s stick caught a Dallas Stars’ player up high on the opening shift. That ended up leading to a deflection goal from the bumper position, giving the hometown Texans an early lead. DAL 1-0. The True Northers were able to respond 7 minutes later when a Kyle Connor wrap around attempt allowed him to net his 5th goal of the playoffs. TIE 1-1. Despite the shots being fairly equal (10-8 DAL), it was in the medium-high danger scoring chances that you noticed how badly Dallas was outplaying Winnipeg (7-0 DAL). This pressure paid off for the Stars late in the first when the Jets got scrambly in their own end, losing coverages and leaving Thomas Harley wide open in the slot for a wrister that beat Connor Hellebuyck’s glove. DAL 2-1.
The middle frame saw Winnipeg’s players pick up the pace and the Jets had the better of the play as they outshot Dallas 10-8. Yet, the True Northers were still having problems getting looks from the dangerous areas of the ice and it wasn’t until a great individual effort by Josh Morrissey that the Jets created a quality chance. With the puck at the blueline, the defenseman danced around the Stars’ forward covering him, allowing Josh to step up and find a cross-ice passing lane to Niederreiter for a 1 timer from the low left face-off circle. TIE 2-2. The franchises went to the second intermission deadlocked after the middle period, yet Dallas was still in control of the stats (2.29-1.47 xG & 12-3 in med-high danger attempts).
Unfortunately, the 3rd period witnessed the True Northers self destruct, with some assistance from the officials and NHL Call Centre in Toronto. About 4 minutes in, a Dallas player kicked a rebound towards the front of the net, sending the puck deflecting off Hellebuyck’s goal stick and into the net. The refs huddled and watched video for a really long time, seeing that the Stars’ player clearly kicked the puck….yet they seemed to determined to avoid calling the goal back and eventually decided on the lame conclusion that since the puck went in off Bucky, it wasn’t a kicked in goal. Which is clearly incorrect, as it should be treated like a high-stick infraction and if that happens & a goal goes in off the tender…it’s no goal. But in the end, the NHL lamely took the view that Hellebuyck “played” the puck into his own net. DAL 3-2. That was all it took for the fragile confidence of the Winnipeg Jets to collapse, as they let in another two goals quickly, putting the game out of reach.
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FINAL SCORE: DALLAS STARS 5 WINNIPEG JETS 2
FINAL STATS
Shots: 26-25 DAL / Hits: 42-41 DAL / Face-Offs: 51.9% WPG / x Goals: 3.95 DAL – 1.75 WPG /
MoneyPuck’s Deserve to Win: 73.0% DAL / High-Medium Danger Scoring Chances: 16 to 3 DAL
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SCORING SUMMARY from ESPN
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SHOT CHART from MoneyPuck
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ADVANCED SKATER STATS from MoneyPuck
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GOALIE STATS from ESPN & MoneyPuck
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If you would like to dive deeper into the game’s stats, follow the links below to the game pages:
MoneyPuck: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars – Sunday May 11 2025 – MoneyPuck.com
NaturalStatTrick: Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars, 2025-05-11
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BOJA’s Observations:
- Still in holiday mode….so going to enjoy the lake & sunshine rather than bore you all with too many of my thoughts on the game.
- Not a lot of good things to take from Game 3. The Winnipeg Jets had so many problems finding a way through the Dallas Stars’ defensive structure last night, while also giving up more quality looks against than normal (16-3 DAL in med-high danger looks).
- Rough outings by a lot of the True Northers, but these players are the ones that caught my eye: Connor Hellebuyck (has to stop one of the two 1st period goals and finished with a -1.74 Goals Saved Above Expected), the second line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Vladislav Namestnikov, & Cole Perfetti were invisible last night (28% xG), the 4th line of Brandon Tanev, Morgan Barron, & Alex Iafallo were on for 2 of the goals against, and the defensive duo of Dylan Samberg & Neal Pionk were not their best (47.7% xG, but allowed 2 GAs).
Well, coach Scott Arniel and the rest of the staff have to go back to the drawing board if they want to come up with a plan to come away with a very important win in Game 4. The Winnipeg Jets have been pretty good at bouncing back this season, so they will have to do it once again if they want to make this series interesting.
UP NEXT: Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars – Tuesday, May 13th @ 7:00 pm CST
