The playoff picture for the five Central Division franchises remains unclear despite them having only 2 to 4 games left in the regular season. We do know that the Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, & Colorado Avalanche have officially stamped their tickets to the big show, while the Minnesota Wild & St. Louis Blues are very close to doing so. What is left to be determined is who exactly will be playing whom when the playoffs begin.
At this point, our Jets have a magic number of 2.5 to guarantee the top spot in the Central over the Stars and the two franchises each have 4 contests remaining. The Avalanche are most likely stuck in the 3rd place position, so that leaves us with another race between the Wild & Blues for the 7th & 8th wildcard spots. As of today, Minnesota & St. Louis are tied up with 93 pts on the campaign, but the Wild hold a key advantage with a game in hand as well as a 2 win lead in the first tie-breaker (regulation wins). Minny just got star forwards Kiril Kaprizov & Joel Eriksson-Ek back from injury and they will hope to lock up the 7th Western Conference playoff berth when the play the Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks, & Anaheim Ducks to finish off their year. While St. Louis will be hoping their division rivals slip up and allow them to overtake the Wild by picking up wins versus the Seattle Kraken & Utah Hockey Club. The prize for this final race isn’t all that great though, as the winner will most likely get the chance to play the Vegas Golden Knights in the opening round of the post-season while the loser will have to square off against the Winnipeg Jets or Dallas Stars.
And that brings us to Thursday’s match up featuring the True Northers & their Texan rivals, which will play an oversized role in determining who sits atop the Central at the end of the regular season schedule. The two clubs have met three times this season and our Jets won both games at the Canada Life Centre (4-1 wins), while the Stars came away with a 3-1 victory at the American Airlines Center. With a magic number of 2.5, Winnipeg cannot officially secure the title with a regulation win this evening…but they can come very, very close.
The Winnipeg Jets (53-21-4) have been rotating wins & losses over their past four contests and will be hoping to break that cycle by picking up a 2nd straight victory. The True Northers do have injury concerns, with Gabriel Vilardi & Rasmus Kupari definitely on the shelf for Thursday’s game. The team did get defensemen Neal Pionk & Colin Miller back at practice yesterday, but speedy Dane Nikolaj Ehlers and monster defenseman Luke Schenn did not participate (game-time decisions). So who knows if the lineup will look like it does below or whether Winnipeg will get an influx of new players.
The Dallas Stars (50-22-6) had been on a 7 game heater, but most recently have dropped 3 straight contests to fall 4 points behind the Jets. The Texans have some injury issues of their own, with defenseman Nils Lundkvist banged up, forward Tyler Seguin nearing a return after missing a significant span of hockey, and then a still-healing star defenseman in Miro Heiskanen.
Here is how PuckPedia is predicting the coaching staffs to line up the skaters tonight:
Looking at the Match Up & ESPN’s Goaltender Comparison graphics below, the numbers suggest that these are two very evenly matched hockey teams. The regular season data tell us that both the Jets & Stars can score goals at a good clip, play a style of hockey that limits high danger looks against, have quality special teams, and their options in net are playing at an above average level in 2024-25.
That being said, the advanced stats from the past 10 games tell a different story. Here is a brief comparison of how Winnipeg & Dallas have done in that span:
xG%: WPG 58.86% (1st in NHL) vs DAL 43.23% (29th in NHL)
Corsi%: WPG 52.95% (8th in NHL) vs DAL 43.49% (31st in NHL)
Fenwick%: WPG 53.67% (6th in NHL) vs DAL 41.28% (32nd in NHL)
Though the Stars are 7-1-2 in that span, while the Jets are 6-4-0. So winning the stats doesn’t always result in that team walking away with points in the standings too.
The chance to pretty much lock up the division title with a regulation win by the Jets on Thursday, which could allow them the opportunity to rest up a few players over their remaining 3 matches before the playoffs kick off.
Alright, now that you have all the information needed….lets hear your thoughts on how the game will play out when the puck drops at 7 pm Central. Winnipeg has done a good job of rising to the occasion this year…so hopefully they continue to do so as they prep to run the gauntlet in the NHL playoffs.
Go Winnipeg!!!!!!!
