I have fired up my BigOl’JetAirliner to do a recon of each and every team the Winnipeg Jets will have to face in the upcoming campaign. When the wheels eventually touch back down in good ol’ River Heights, I hope to have a good idea of our competition’s key players/prospects, their strengths & weaknesses, and the overall depth of each franchise. To assist with that last topic, I opted to use the projected line ups provided by DailyFaceOff.com but since the visual display of the lines was better on PuckPedia, I ended up using that site to create the graphics included in the articles. Thanks to both of those helpful sites.
As I finished up in Denver, according to the alphabet I should have been heading to Ohio to check in on the state of the Columbus Blue Jackets. However, due to the tragic loss of their star forward Johnny Gaudreau on August 29th, I think how the Jackets’ roster looks is the farthest thing from the fans’ minds. Stay strong Columbus!!
Therefore out of respect, I moved onto the D’s and directed my jet towards the state of Texas to check in on one of the Winnipeg Jets’ division rivals.
DALLAS STARS:
The Stars’ 52-21-9 win-loss record gave them 113 pts last season, the second highest total in the franchise’s 56 year existence (including 26 yrs in Minnesota). In 1998-99, Dallas ended the regular season with 114 pts and went on to lift the Stanley Cup for the first and only time that year. Unfortunately for the team’s fans, 2023-24 didn’t go as well as Texas’ hockey team bowed out in the Conference Finals for the second straight year. The Dallas Stars were elite offensively & defensively last season, finishing in the top 10 in both goals for (3rd w/ 298) and goals against (8th w/ 234) categories.
Making the playoffs in 5 out of the last 6 NHL campaigns, the Dallas Stars ended up losing trade deadline acquisition Chris Tanev to free agency. The franchise also did take a hit when 40 yr old Joe Pavelski retired after putting up 67 pts in his final campaign. Other than that, there wasn’t a whole lot of meaningful departures (Craig Smith, Scott Wedgewood, etc).
Looking back to the past regular season, Dallas had six players with more than 60 pts and nine with more than 50 pts. And the graphic below from ESPN doesn’t even include 23 yr old defenseman Thomas Harley’s impressive rookie season (47 pts in 79 gms).
Harley is also the most important thing remaining on GM Jim Nill’s Off-Season To Do List, as the left hand defender is an RFA who is due a substantial raise over his ELC contract ($863k/yr). As you will see from PuckPedia’s graphic below, Dallas still needs to sign at least one more forward and defenseman to round out the roster. The Stars currently have $6,243,759 in space to get the job done, which might not be enough to lock up a promising young defenseman like Harley long-term, so a 1 or 2 yr contract is the most likely outcome. His signing will also alter the defensive lineup below, as the 6’3″ American will definitely take over one of the top 4 LHD spots.
The Dallas Stars’ top line is surprisingly young (avg of 24.3 yrs) for the amount of NHL success the trio have had. An early 2nd round pick of the 2017 draft, Jason Robertson, has been a hit since he was a rookie putting up 45 pts in 51 games. The 6’3″ Californian has since put up 79, 109, & 80 pt seasons so the 25 yr old is always a threat to opposing defenses. On the lineup above, Robertson will be joined by the veteran, 27 yr old Roope Hintz, and the youngster of the line, 21 yr old Wyatt Johnston. Hintz is another 2nd round draft pick who has panned out well for the Stars, as he has averaged around 70 pts/yr over the past three seasons. A 23rd overall selection of Dallas’ in the 2021 Entry Draft, the 6’1″ Johnston put up 24 goals & 41 points in his rookie campaign before increasing his production to 32 goals & 65 points last year.
The 2nd line has a lot more experience, with 33 yr old Matt Duchene, 32 yr old Tyler Seguin, & 29 yr old Mason Marchment filling the spots. The former 2nd overall draft pick Seguin is clearly on the downslope of his career, but is still capable of producing in the 50 pt range. While Duchene is slightly older, he has seen a resurgence of his play over the past few seasons that resulted in his 2nd (86 pts) & 4th (65 pts) best point totals of his career.
The construction of Dallas’ 3rd line above gives the team an experienced veteran in 35 yr old Jamie Benn to help out two of the Stars’ promising young forwards. With 15 NHL seasons under his belt, Benn looked like his production was going to keep dropping as he sustained three seasons with lower than normal points (35-46), but the Canadian has rebounded well over the most recent two campaigns (78 & 60 pts). Yet another 2nd round draft pick, 21 yr old Logan Stankoven offers an intriguing package of talents in his 5’8″ frame. After filling the scoresheets with Kamloops in the WHL, the right handed forward put 57 pts in 47 games with the AHL’s Texas Stars in his first professional season. Dallas’ 30th pick of the 2020 draft also netted them an under-sized talented forward in 5’10” Mavrik Bourque. Making his debut with the Texas Stars in 2022-23, the Quebec-born forward impressed with 20 goals & 47 points in 70 AHL games. Building on that last year, Bourque eclipsed the point per game rate as he scored 26 goals & 77 points in 71 AHL contests.
If I had to pick the Dallas Stars three best defensemen, they would include the unsigned Harley, 25 yr old Miro Heiskanen, & 30 yr old Esa Lindell. The 6’1″ Heiskanen was the 3rd overall selection in 2017 and the Finn took a huge step forward in 2022-23 when he put up 73 pts in 79 games. He didn’t produce as well last season, but 54 pts in 71 games with a 53.2 Goals For % (GF%) was still in the elite echelon for defensemen. Completing his 8th NHL season in 2023-24, the 6’3″ Lindell isn’t exactly known for his points (career-high of 32), however the Finn provides solid defensive play (only lost the GF% battle twice). The young Harley only has his 47 pt campaign under his belt, so we will see if he continues an upward trajectory as coach Pete DeBoer puts him in tougher situations.
Rounding out the defensive core, Dallas has a couple veteran RHD’s in 30 yr olds Matt Dumba & Ilya Lyubushkin, along with 35 yr old LHD Brendan Smith. None of those defenders bring much offense potential, but 24 yr old Nils Lundkvist might be able to if given the chance. A 28th overall selection of the NY Rangers in 2018, the 5’10” Swede is entering his third season with the Stars (averaged 17.5 pts & 59.5 gms). Former Manitoba Moose defenseman Kyle Capobianco will also be in the mix on the back end after signing a deal with the Texas franchise in the off-season.
In the crease, the 25 yr old Jake Oettinger will undoubtedly be Dallas’ starter next year. The Minnesotan is coming off his worst season of his four year professional career, however since a .905 save % isn’t really that bad it does show the pedigree the young tender has shown to this point. The Stars will have a new backup goaltender this campaign, with 33 yr old Casey DeSmith joining the franchise. The veteran is coming off a career-worst season with the Vancouver Canucks (.896%), but his history shows that he should be able to deliver above average tending (career .909%).
PROBABLE FATE:
The defending Central Division champions will be hoping for a repeat of that feat in 2024-25, though franchises like the Colorado Avalanche, Nashville Predators, & Winnipeg Jets will try to make that very difficult for the Dallas Stars. Once management finishes their summer work by getting Harley’s name on a contract, I think the lack of significant off-season losses combined with the expected improved performance by goalie Oettinger will definitely give Dallas a shot at it though.
A nice mix of experience and youth throughout the Stars’ roster will help the team weather the ups & downs of an NHL season. This is something the Jets’ management should take heed of…a team that is planning on competing for a Stanley Cup, yet still smartly incorporates young prospects into their lineup.
The Stars will require continued growth from their youth (Harley, Stankoven, & Mavrik) if they want their top 9 forwards & top 4 defensemen to be among the NHL best, but only awful injury luck could derail Dallas’ playoff hopes in the upcoming campaign.
So if the post-season isn’t in doubt, then Dallas Star fans will get to enjoy the regular season while waiting to see if their boys can hold off what looks like a dangerous Avalanche squad for the division title. Then the challenge will become making it by the Conference Finals for the franchises’ 6th Stanley Cup Final appearance (3 w/ DAL & 2 w/ MIN to date).
UP NEXT: The Detroit Red Wings…..
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