For the first time since the National Hockey League’s 2021-22 campaign, the Winnipeg Jets are advancing past the first round of the playoffs….and they did it in a once in a lifetime fashion as they stormed back to score two goals in the final minutes of the game to tie things up before cashing in the winner in double overtime. Quite the Game 7 memories for the White Out crowd at the Canada Life Centre and for those watching around the world.
While the True North franchise was fortunate to get a two day break before their second round series kicks off, I am sure the coaching staff has fully moved on to planning out their attack against their next playoff opponents…the rival Dallas Stars. Somewhat surprisingly, the two Central Division foes have never actually squared off in the post-season. Yet that doesn’t mean that the two franchises aren’t very familiar with each other, as the Jets, Stars, & Colorado Avalanche have been fighting for Central dominance over the past three seasons.
The Manitobans & Texans typically play 4 regular season games each year and over Winnipeg’s second reincarnation, Dallas has a slight advantage with a 33-27-0 record (Jets are 27-27-6). Both franchises are coming off strong regular seasons, with our club walking away with the most points (116) and the President’s Trophy while the Stars finished with the 5th best total (106).
However, this season it was Winnipeg with the edge in the regular season series, picking up 3 wins over 4 contests. It all started way back on Nov 9th when the Jets used the powerplay to pocket a pair of goals as they breezed to a 4-1 win at the Canada Life Centre (allowed a late goal to break shutout bid). Less than a month later the two clubs were back at it, this time in Dallas when Winnipeg opened up the scoring early only to allow the Stars to tie it up in the 1st frame. A tightly fought battle was decided in the mid-3rd when the Texans notched the goal ahead goal before adding an empty netter to win 3-1. Game 3 was on March 14th when the Jets hosted the contest in the Peg and once against shot out to an early lead (2 goals in 1st) before allowing another late goal to ruin a shutout bid (4-1 final). The final clash of the year was less than a month ago at the American Airlines Center (Apr 10th) when Winnipeg put on one of their better performances of the year to walk away with a 4-0 shutout. So the Jets out-scored the Stars 13 to 5 in the regular season, which hopefully is a sign of how the upcoming series will play out.
Despite having solid seasons, both Jets’ GM Kevin Cheveldayoff & Stars’ GM Jim Nill were looking to add to their squads when the trade deadline rolled around. It was the latter who took the biggest swing when the opportunity to acquire Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes popped into Nill’s lap…and he happily traded a sizeable chunk of Dallas’ future for the chance to sign the big power forward to a long-term deal. The Stars’ top dog also did some work a month before the deadline, adding an important piece in forward Mikael Granlund from the San Jose Sharks. It was rumoured that Chevy was involved in all kinds of failed attempts to add significant pieces to his top six forward group, but in the end the costs & trade protections limited Winnipeg to bringing in physical depth pieces like defenseman Luke Schenn & forward Brandon Tanev.
Since we have been discussing the two clubs’ regular seasons, let’s find out how the rival Central Division squads compare based on those stats in the graphic below:
In the regular season, both Winnipeg & Dallas were amongst the NHL’s best teams and the stats above tell us that they are very equally matched for the most part. There are some areas where one club might have an advantage over the other, such as the Stars’ face-off percentage & penalty killing efficiency and the Jets’ powerplay conversion rate & overall team defense. Both sets of goaltenders had quality regular season campaigns as the #1 & #2 rankings would indicate, so goals could be difficult to come by.
I probably should pour over the numbers a bit more to look for clues about the eventual winner since the advanced stats gurus tell us that regular season performance is the best indicator of post-season play…..but since our club tends to not carry over their regular season style into the playoffs, I think we should also dig into how the Winnipeg Jets & Dallas Stars have performed after Round 1:
The post-season numbers do provide us with a few more differences between Winnipeg & Dallas, although the smaller sample size (7 gms) makes them statistically less valuable. The Jets & Stars have been pretty similar in the goals for/against categories after round 1, but the True Northers have done a much better job at suppressing shots against (23.7 to 34.4/gm).
Bodychecking is one of the areas where Winnipeg has a large advantage, throwing 322 bodychecks to Dallas’ 208 in the opening round. While it was probably the St. Louis Blues that dictated the physicality of the Jets’ first playoff series, our club didn’t shy away and shouldn’t have any difficulties matching up with what the Stars can bring in that regard. According to the data, the Jets are throwing 51.69% of the hits in the playoffs, while Dallas had dealt 42.36% of checks in their series.
The opposition in Round 2 has received much better goaltending in the post-season, with Jake Oettinger playing a large role in their win over the Avalanche, who routinely outshot his team. Jets’ tender Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff struggles are starting to become one of the universe’s great mysteries, but getting the win in a pivotal Game 7 may be enough for the return of the calm & confident brick wall of a goalie that we are used to in the regular season. Dallas’ special teams play will also be a concern for Arniel & his staff, because they have deadly powerplay & penalty killing units.
Winnipeg has been the better team at creating “expected” offense, but it is their rivals that are more adept at capitalizing on the chances they do get. According to MoneyPuck’s data, Dallas is up near the top of the NHL in high danger chances created (1st) and allowed (2nd), while the Jets have allowed the 6th most high danger opportunities against and sent the 5th most looks towards opposing goalies.
I have been focusing on team play up until now, but we will switch things up a bit by looking at how some of the individual skaters are doing for the Jets & Stars. To assist with this, let’s briefly check out the top 10 point getters for both clubs after the opening round.
WINNIPEG JETS ———— Play Off Stats ———— DALLAS STARS
Comparing the two clubs top scorers, it almost shows an identical breakdown of the scoring levels at the upper echelon of the lineups, though it could be said that the True Northers are relying a bit more on their depth. For the most part, the star players for both teams have been producing in the opening round of the playoffs, though Dallas’ slew of negative plus/minus ratings tells us they didn’t excel at even strength against Colorado. The Stars’ Mikko Rantanen & the Jets’ Kyle Connor are tied for the NHL point scoring lead after the opening round, while Dallas’ Roope Hintz & Wyatt Johnston and Winnipeg’s Mark Schefeile & Cole Perfetti have supplied secondary scoring. A couple good offensive defensemen also chipping in regularly when Thomas Harley & Neal Pionk join rushes or create havoc with screened point shots.
Perhaps the biggest surprise for Winnipeg fans is the sight of Mason Appleton up near the top of Jets’ point getters (6). The 3rd line winger hasn’t registered a goal yet, but has 6 helpers and a +4 plus/minus rating that ties him for the club lead. Apples also has the team high for On Ice Goals % with a whopping 75% during 5 on 5 play. One thing I will concede to his many critics is that Mason rarely creates a high danger scoring look for himself, with only Dylan DeMelo getting less quality chances in the playoffs.
KEYS TO A TRUE NORTH VICTORY:
- Hellebuyck: There is no doubt that Connor Hellebuyck needs to be much better if the Jets hope to advance. He showed flashes of his regular excellence in the later parts of Game 7 and the whole city of Winnipeg hopes that has relight the spark that makes him a multiple Vezina winning goalie. I have to admit, before yesterday’s heroics, I had a whole article idea sprouting and was finally ready to stop defending his post-season struggles as being more a sign of a team-wide issue…but the comeback has hopefully put that story permanently on hold.
- Scott Arniel: Winnipeg’s’ head coach will be important in Round 2, especially when it comes to finding the right line combinations while/if some of the regular starters are out of the lineup. The Jets largely avoided injuries to the top 9 forwards in the regular season, allowing the units to be among the most used trios in the NHL. But that might have made it harder for the staff to adjust to huge lost games from players like Gabriel Vilardi, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, & Mark Scheifele. Coach Arniel also has to find out the proper way to motivate his players so that they can start playoff contests off strong and not have to dig themselves out of an early hole. The Jets need to define how the game is played and not totally capitulate to the other team’s plans like they did with the hit-fest in the opening round.
- Ride the White Out: In seasons past, the sea of white at the Canada Life Centre has delivered the atmosphere for greatness, but the team has failed to live up to those expectations. This year though, the home ice advantage seems real as the Winnipeg Jets are a perfect 4-0 in the province of Manitoba. If the True Northers want to have success in this series and beyond, they need to pick up wins in their own barn. As one Arctic Ice Hockey commenter once said, the Presidents Trophy win gives the Jets the chance to win 16 home games to eventually lift the Cup. Hopefully they won’t continue to lose every road contest, but the ultimate success starts with doing the right things at the CLC.
- Injuries: The Dallas Stars have been without two star players for the entire opening round of the playoffs, but there is an expectation that both Jason Robertson & Miro Heiskanen will make an appearance at some point in Round 2. Getting their top defenseman and a great goal scorer back in the lineup will make the Texans all the more dangerous, so it might be best for the Jets to start the series off on the right foot. The Winnipeg Jets have two key injuries as well, with both Mark Scheifele & Josh Morrissey banged up in recent games. The team’s top center has already missed the final 2 contests of the Blues series, but has started to skate on his own so his much-needed return should come at some point versus Dallas. Morrissey was injured in the most recent game on Sunday and I haven’t heard any news about his status or potential availability for Wednesday’s series opening game.
Well, I think that is plenty of data & information for us to pour over while we await the beginning of the Winnipeg Jets & Dallas Stars series. So that you can plan the upcoming two weeks around your club’s schedule, check out the NHL’s plan for the True Northers below:
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The people over there at MoneyPuck are saying the Winnipeg Jets have a 52.3% chance of advancing to the 3rd round of the playoffs, which is the 3rd best odds in the NHL behind the Vegas Golden Knights (55.8%) and Carolina Hurricanes (55.3%). Which of course means that the Toronto Maple Leafs – Florida Panthers match up is being deemed the closest series of Round 2. The same site has the True Northers with the 5th best odds to win the Stanley Cup this year (13.6%) but they are tied for 3rd for the highest likelihood to make an appearance in the Finals (27.5%).
As usual, I encourage anyone to share their thoughts about the article, the upcoming playoff series, or anything hockey related in the Comment section below. Did the numbers in the article make you feel better or worse about the Jets’ chances? Do you feel that Winnipeg matches up well against Dallas…or would you have rather had a rematch with Colorado? According to a post from a Stars’ fan that I saw, their squad has not won a playoff series where they didn’t have home ice advantage going all the way back to 2008. So that might give Winnipeg a small edge….
Go Winnipeg!!!!!!!!!!!!
***12 exclamation marks for the 12 wins the Jets need to lift the Cup.***
