My apologies for the delayed recap report…..Friday was a bit crazy for me and I couldn’t get around to putting the final touches on the article until this morning. Thanks for your patience.
The Winnipeg Jets were up two games after winning both contests at the Canada Life Centre in Manitoba and now the series was switching to the St. Louis Blues’ home arena. The True Northers’ opposition had won 12 straight games at the Enterprise Center, while the Jets had beaten St. Louis in 4 straight matches. Something had to give on Thursday in Game 3…..
GAME RECAP
The hometown Blues started the contest at a high tempo, as St. Louis out-forechecked, out-worked, out-shot (15-7), & out-hit (30-13) Winnipeg in the 1st period. While the Jets’ players may have been expecting their rivals to play their best game of the series, they certainly weren’t ready to match the energy & physical play in the opening frame and this allowed the Blues to take total control with a flurry of goals. Pavel Buchnevich scored on his first shift on an odd play where he kicked the puck towards the net, but also got a stick on the biscuit before it crossed the goalline to beat Connor Hellebuyck. Things got worse when Winnipeg took a penalty, giving up yet another powerplay marker this playoffs as Buchnevich added a 2nd goal of the game less than 4 minutes in. The Jets were able to weather the Blues’ onslaught for a while, but eventually Alex Iafallo allowed defenseman Cam Fowler to beat him to the slot on a St. Louis rush for a third goal by the home club.
The game was pretty much over from this point on, though the stats will say that Winnipeg evened up the game from this point on in terms of shots, hits, & expected goals. That really doesn’t matter because St. Louis knew they would have to totally collapse to allow a comeback, thus eased their foot on the gas pedal. The Jets might have been able to make things a bit more interesting if the NHL’s Review Center could have used a little imagination to determine the circumference of the puck in Jordan Binnington’s glove as it was partially viewable through the meshing. To my eyes and pretty much everyone on the broadcast, Cole Perfetti’s 1 timer was caught across the goalline but due to “inconclusive evidence” the officials didn’t overturn the “no goal” on ice call. At the end of the 2nd, St. Louis was still very much in control with a 3-0 lead on the scoreboard, as well as 21-14 in shots, 49-40 in hits, & 2.32-1.51 in expected goals.
The final frame saw Winnipeg’s David Gustafsson score to slightly pull up the hopes of the White Out fans, but St. Louis immediately snuffed those out with a Robert Thomas response. After that, the Blues added a couple more powerplay goals and breezed to an easy victory to avoid going down 3-0 in the series.
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FINAL SCORE: ST. LOUIS BLUES 7 WINNIPEG JETS 2
FINAL STATS
Shots: 28-19 STL / Hits: 59-54 WPG / Face-Offs: 57.4% STL / x Goals: 3.13 STL – 2.25 WPG /
MoneyPuck’s Deserve to Win: 63.2% STL / High-Medium Danger Scoring Chances: 12 to 8 STL
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SCORING SUMMARY from ESPN
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SHOT CHART from MoneyPuck
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ADVANCED SKATER STATS from MoneyPuck
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GOALIE STATS from ESPN & MoneyPuck
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If you would like to dive deeper into the game’s stats, follow the links below to the game pages:
MoneyPuck: Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues – Thursday April 24 2025 – MoneyPuck.com
NaturalStatTrick: Winnipeg Jets @ St Louis Blues, 2025-04-24
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BOJA’s Observations:
- Well, I am kind of glad that I had to wait a long time before writing up my observations. If I had done them right after the game, I am certain that there would be a more “doom & gloom” feeling to most of my bulletins. Not that I have anything positive to say about the Winnipeg Jets’ performance in Game 3 upon further contemplation, but the extra time has allowed me to see 4 out of 5 franchises fail to grasp the opportunity to go up 3-0 in their series.
- Only the Toronto Maple Leafs were successful with a tightly contested overtime win over the Ottawa Senators, while the New Jersey Devils also required OT to avoid losing three straight to the Carolina Hurricanes and the Edmonton Oilers pulled away late in the final period to avoid the same fate against the Los Angeles Kings. In the only other series with an outcome similar to our Jets, the Washington Capitals weren’t ready to handle the intensity of the Bell Centre & the Montreal Canadiens and got seriously outplayed (xG 4.49 MTL – 1.81 WSH) as they dropped their first game of the series. The last NHL club with a chance to go up 3-0 in the first round is the Florida Panthers, who just began their match against the Tampa Bay Lightning, so we will see if that 20% number drops or rises later today.
- So all that is not really meant to give Winnipeg an excuse for their poor performance on Thursday, but rather to highlight how difficult it is to keep the momentum when a series switches to the other team’s barn. For sure I would have rather seen the Jets drop a tightly fought affair, but it is not like a blowout in the playoffs immediately eliminates any chances of further success in their runs. Last year’s Cup winners (FLA) dropped a couple of lop-sided affairs on route to the ultimate success (6-3 L to TB & 8-1 L to EDM), as did the two prior Stanley Cup champions (VEG had a pair of 5-1 losses & COL had a 6-2 loss).
- My biggest concern about the play of the True Northers continues to be on the penalty killing units, as they had another horrific outing by allowing three PPGs versus St. Louis on Thursday. That makes it 5 on the series, in only 18 minutes of penalty time and puts Winnipeg as the 2nd worst NHL club in the playoffs (EDM 6 PPG allowed in 14 mins). Before Saturday’s NHL games, only 7 teams have allowed at least 3 powerplay goals against and only the Jets & Capitals (3 GA) are up in their series. So poor penalty killing is not an omen for success in the post-season, therefore the coaching staff needs to figure something out. Yes, the late loss of Dylan DeMelo to an illness made things worse for the PKers last game, but even with the veteran in the lineup the Jets need to do much better if they have any hopes of winning a round or two.
- On the other side of the same coin, the majority of the squads that are doing very well on the powerplay are also walking away with victories more frequently. The NHL’s top three clubs, Los Angeles (58.3%), Toronto (55.6%), & Florida (50%) have had early success with their series in their favour 2-1, 3-0, & 2-0 respectively.
- Head coach Scott Arniel has had a pretty solid season behind the bench for Winnipeg, but his lack of experience may have shown up a bit in Game 3. I know the players are grown adults and professional athletes to boot, but you would hope that the coaching staff could have better prepared the Jets for the difficult task of handling the St. Louis Blues’ home arena environment and expected pushback. Basically, the Manitobans got punched in the mouth early on and never really recovered. Thankfully, it was far from a knock out punch, so it is imperative the the True Northers make the necessary adjustments to better counter-act the opposition’s plan for the rest of the series.
- I could go on about other things like the piss poor outing by Connor Hellebuyck or other Jets players who struggled last game, but instead I will focus on the few players that finished with positive expected goals ratings on Thursday:
- The biggest thing I took from this diagram is only one of Winnipeg’s “top players” is on the list, with a solid statistical outing by Mark Scheifele. That is disappointing, as you need your big players to show up in the big games. Maybe even more worrisome for the Jets is that 50% of the above players are typically watching games from the press box (Gus, JAD, & Miller)….not exactly the guys you would expect to rise to the occasion.
White Out nation will be on pins & needles over the weekend as they wait to find out which version of the Winnipeg Jets will show up for a pivotal Game 4 match up. Split the series on the road….and you give your franchise a big opportunity to seal things at the Canada Life Centre in Game 5. No words, data, or past historical comparisons is going to change the way us fans feel, so I guess we will just have to wait to see how things play out on Sunday.
Perhaps the extra break between games will allow Gabriel Vilardi to shed the non-contact jersey and give the home club a bit of a spark? I will be monitoring the news from the Jets’ practice reports and will provide any updates in the Comments section. Have a great weekend…enjoy the sun!!
UP NEXT: St. Louis Blues @ Winnipeg Jets – Sunday, April 27th @ noon CST
