That time of the year is upon us once again….the start of the National Hockey League playoffs is finally kicking off on Saturday. For the involved fanbases, a feeling of anticipation is in the air with 16 franchises’ hopes of a Stanley Cup trophy on the line. Some of those fans are still basking in the glow of last year’s Cup win (FLA), others saw their squads fall just short of the Holy Grail & are hoping this is their teams’ time (EDM/DAL), while more than a few fanbases are looking for their clubs to overcome that troublesome 1st round hurdle (TOR/LA/WPG).
I can’t claim to know what every teams’ fans are feeling as the post-season is about the begin but from my browsing of the various websites’ comment sections, I have seen confidence from some of them (COL/VEG/CAR), nerves from others (DAL/NJ), and a general happiness to have their clubs still playing (MTL/OTT) mixed with cautious optimism.
When it comes to the Winnipeg Jets’ fans, I think we encompass all of the emotions noted above as our club prepares to take on the St. Louis Blues in the opening round. While the True Northers didn’t lift Lord Stanley’s Cup last season, there are some out there just as confident as those cheering for the Florida Panthers based on Winnipeg’s excellent 2024-25 President Trophy winning season. There is a much larger contingent that falls in the category of just wanting/needing to see the Jets win the first round and then feel anything could happen after that. Others, buoyed by the regular & advanced stats, could almost admit to being confident that the Manitobans will be successful in the NHL’s second season, if it wasn’t for the scars left from the drubbing the Colorado Avalanche handed our team last year. Finally, there are those that believe Winnipeg doesn’t have a chance to win a seven game series, whether that is because they believe in something like the “Hellebuyck sucks in the playoffs” narrative or just a way to avoid getting their hopes too high & avoid some pain if the worst does come to bear.
After finishing the season with the NHL’s best record & the top seed in the Western Conference, the Winnipeg Jets (56-22-4) earned the right to play the 8th seeded St. Louis Blues (44-30-8) in the opening round. With 20 points separating the clubs in the standings, it isn’t surprising that the Jets (3-1-0) held the advantage in the season series over the Blues (1-2-1). Here is the schedule for Winnipeg & St. Louis’ first round series:
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The two NHL clubs have had quite different seasons in 2024-25, with the Jets starting the season off with a historical 15-1-0 start and never really cooling off during the entire campaign and the Blues beginning the year roughly before a coaching change sparked them to a charge in the second half.
Using this season’s stats, I have greatly expanded Arctic Ice Hockey’s Match Up graphic to include 13 more statistical categories to assist us in taking a deeper dive into how the two franchises compare. When you are perusing the graphic below, you will probably pick up that Winnipeg has the advantage in most categories, though there are a couple areas where St. Louis has an edge.
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What I glean from the above chart is that both the Jets & Blues play similar styles of hockey, though our team has been better at deploying that strategy consistently throughout the entire regular season. They also share well-structured defensive systems that try to limit dangerous scoring chances against (low shots against numbers), disciplined players that make their opponents take more penalties than they do (WPG/STL less than 50% of PIMs), and skaters with the ability to hit their targets (top 10 shooting % in NHL).
Winnipeg has an advantage in special teams over St. Louis, though the loss of Gabriel Vilardi has made the Jets’ powerplay less effective recently. The good news is that our club might get Gabe back for the start of the playoffs, but that is looking less likely for another important forward in Nikolaj Ehlers. The Blues aren’t without injury woes of their own, as they are missing key center Dylan Holloway, who like Fly is considered week-to-week.
Some areas where St. Louis could cause Winnipeg problems is with their advantage at the face-off dot and their ability to score well at even strength (70% of Blues goals at 5 on 5, compared to 61.8% for the Jets). Both clubs have received above average goaltending this year, though the True Northers have had the league’s best tending, as their second straight William Jennings Trophy win indicates. If you want to dig deeper into the masked me, check out ESPN & MoneyPuck’s graphics below:
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Before I finish off our preview of the Winnipeg Jets & St. Louis Blues series, here are the teams’ top offensive players this season, courtesy of ESPN:
Jets:
St. Louis:
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Alright, you now have plenty of data to go through to distract you from any nerves about the upcoming game…or at least save those fingernails from being gnawed at while you read the article? Maybe some of the numbers will make you feel more positive about the Winnipeg Jets’ chances? Possibly there is nothing other than 4 Jets’ wins to make those butterflies go away?
In any case, I hope you take the time to enjoy the upcoming White Out. It has been an amazing season with so many highlights already for our True Northers, why couldn’t it get even better in the playoffs? If I was head coach Scott Arniel, I would be stressing the importance of playing the style of hockey that led to the Winnipeg Jets having their best season in franchise history. Abandoning that structure could lead to another nightmare like last year and none of us wants to go through that again.
Lets hear your thoughts about the upcoming game/series in the Comment section below. What is the confidence level like for our AIH members? Enjoy your long weekend everybody.
Go Winnipeg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
***16 exclamation marks for the 16 wins the Jets need to lift the Cup.***
