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Manitoba Moose: Season Forecast

Apr 18, 2024; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets forward Nikita Chibrikov (90) celebrates his first NHL goal against the Vancouver Canucks during the third period at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: Terrence Lee-USA TODAY Sports

I figured that since I spent some time looking at what the Winnipeg Jets’ season might look like in the article below, I decided (with a slight nudge by Pembina Puck Hog) to do the same for their minor league affiliate, the Manitoba Moose.

The American Hockey League franchise is currently being run by General Manager Craig Heisinger, who has a long history with the Winnipeg Jets/Manitoba Moose. Quite the story from starting out as an Equipment Manager for the original Jets in the late 1980’s and continuing in that capacity until 1998, when he had his most prominent international role by being selected to perform those duties for Team Canada at the Japan Olympics. After that, Heisinger was promoted to the Assistant General Manager for Manitoba (still in the IHL & not affiliated with Winnipeg) under Randy Carlyle and eventually took over when Carlyle returned to the NHL. The Moose GM has continued in that role to date, even after the AHL franchise became a part of the Winnipeg Jets organization when they relocated from Atlanta in 2011.

Behind the bench we find head coach Mark Morrison, who also has a long history with the Winnipeg Jets’ franchise. Morrison started his career in 2006 as the top coach of the Victoria Salmon Kings in the ECHL and eventually got the offer to become the Assistant Coach of the AHL’s St. John’s IceCaps in 2011. After six campaigns in that role, the coach moved to an assistant position with the NHL’s Anaheim Ducks (4 yrs). Since the 2021-22 season, Morrison has been the head coach of the Manitoba Moose with a record of 112-84-20. The assistant coaches for the AHL franchise are Eric Dubois, Morgan Klimchuk, Drew MacIntyre (goalies), & Vaughan Rody (face-offs).

The Manitoba Moose are coming off a year where they barely snuck into the post-season with a 34-35-3 record (good enough for the AHL Central’s wildcard spot). The roster had turned over greatly from the season before and with a bounty of youth on the squad, the down year was somewhat expected. Once again for the 2024-25 season, the minor league team will have to deal with departing players (Jeff Malott, Kyle Capobianco, Jeffrey Viel, Kristian Reichel, & Jimmy Oligny). I believe they are better prepared for the roster turnover since most of the young players now have one year of professional hockey under their belts. If/when every Winnipeg Jet is healthy, the Manitoba Moose could have up to 11 forwards, 6 defensemen, & 3 goaltenders signed to contracts with the big club.

F: Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, Chaz Lucius, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Parker Ford, Mason Shaw, Dominic Toninato, Danny Zhilkin, Daniel Torgersson, & Henri Nikkanen

D: Elias Salomonsson, Simon Lundmark, Dylan Coghlan, Haydn Fleury, Dmitry Kuzmin, & Tyrel Bauer

G: Thomas Milic, Dominic DiVincentiis, and one of Eric Comrie or Kaapo Kahkonen

For Simon Lundmark, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Dominic Toninato, & Mason Shaw, whether they join Manitoba’s training camp tomorrow will depend on whether or not they are claimed on waivers by any other NHL team. Of the 4, I think Lundmark represents the biggest potential loss for the Winnipeg Jets, but the other three will go a long way to ensuring the Moose are competitive this season. So lets hope they all clear. When you include the players the AHL franchise has signed themselves, you add 6 forwards & 4 defensemen to the training camp mix:

F: CJ Suess, Ben King, Ryan Chyzowski, Tyson Empey, Mark Liwiski, & Kevin Conley

D: Ashton Sautner, Dylan Anhorn, Dawson Barteaux, & Benjamin Zloty

Of course, not all of those players will remain with the Manitoba Moose all season, as some players may be called up to the NHL to fill in for injuries and others going to the ECHL’s Norfolk Admirals to get more playing time. With the Jets’ loss of Ville Heinola & Logan Stanley’s services for a month or so, those kind of decisions will come right off the back as two of the defenders listed below will remain with the big club to start the year. To assist us in determining who those players may be, lets take a look at what the Moose’s depth chart looks like. Players with a * behind their names are signed to contracts with Manitoba and the ???? in the goaltender position is whomever loses that battle to back up Connor Hellebuyck (CJ Suess should have a * behind his name).

A big chunk of the Winnipeg Jets’ fanbase is currently hoping that 20 yr old Brad Lambert sticks with the NHL club to start the season and I will say that he is probably the only forward listed above that really has any chance of doing that this year. As I have stated previously, I am torn on the decision the Jets’ coaching staff has to make because I can see a benefit for whatever way the coin falls. Yes, Lambo will make Winnipeg more exciting to watch and he could have a significant impact on the offense. But one more year of sharpening his 2-way game, while continuing to build his offensive game with 20+ minutes on Manitoba’s top line would put him in a great position to break out as a rookie in 2025-26. Even if the Finnish center doesn’t start the season with the Jets, I am fairly certain he will end up getting in at least 20 NHL contests this year. Other Moose forwards like AJF, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Nikita Chibrikov, & Parker Ford could also be potential call ups by Winnipeg throughout the season, depending on injury luck and the level of their play this year.

In past seasons, Manitoba has struggled to have more than 2 effective offensive lines and I believe this year has the potential to provide way more goal scoring throughout the 4 lines. When you consider Chaz Lucius and the other potential top six skaters listed above, I think there is quite a good chance to win the puck possession battle consistently. Last season, all six players averaged between .57 & .86 points per game rate, so the Moose should be able to put way more pucks in nets in 2024-25.

The bottom six above is a good mix of veteran AHLers like Toninato, Shaw, & CJ Suess and younger Winnipeg prospects like 20 yr old Danny Zhilkin, 22 yr old Daniel Torgersson, & 23 yr old Henri Nikkanen. The big Swede Torgersson impressed with his play at the Young Stars Classic and I am hopeful he can finally discover enough offense at the AHL to justify his 2nd round draft pick status. The Finnish Nikkanen is the Moose’s version of Adam Lowry, a big center that plays a good responsible game but squeezes his stick too hard whenever he finds himself in a scoring position. Zhilkin is coming off his first taste of professional hockey and should still be expected to take a step forward despite the forward missing the 2nd half of the season due to injury. With a potential high-end of being similar to Andrew Copp, the 6’1″ center will be hoping to put up a bit more offense in his sophomore campaign.

When the defense is healthy and looks like it does in the graphic above, I really like Manitoba’s chances of keeping the goals against down. Yes, the Moose lost a lot of offense from the back end with Heinola & Capobianco’s production moving elsewhere and I don’t think they fully replaced that. Smooth skating d-men like Dylan Anhorn & 21 yr old Dmitry Kuzmin will help somewhat, but I think they can make up for the rest by playing much better in their own zone. Veterans like Haydn Fleury & Dylan Coghlan will combine with stay-at-home Jets’ prospects 20 yr old Elias Salomonsson & 23 yr old Simon Lundmark to keep a lot more rubber away from Moose goaltenders in 2024-25. The depth beyond the starting six defensemen includes the physical presence that is 22 yr old Tyrel Bauer, a veteran defender in Ashton Sautner, and a couple puck moving back-enders in Dawson Barteaux & Benjamin Zloty.

As I mentioned above, Manitoba’s goaltending situation isn’t exactly set but I don’t think there is any doubt that 21 yr old Thomas Milic will get the chance to secure the starter’s position out of the gate. His 2.72 GAA and .905 save percentage with the Moose after being promoted from Norfolk played a huge role in the campaign turning around and the late successful charge to make the playoffs. While the AHL doesn’t have roster restrictions like the NHL (max of 23 players), it seems unlikely that Winnipeg’s minor league team will keep three goalies for the entire season. With the way the schedule works, it is mainly filled of weeks with 2 games in a back-to-back situation….hardly ideal for getting three tenders into the action regularly. So once the ECHL season gets underway, I very much expect that 20 yr old Dominic DiVincentiis will find himself in a fight for the starter spot with the Norfolk Admirals. Whomever loses the battle for the Jets’ backup role, Eric Comrie or Kaapo Kahkonen will still need to provide quality starts for Manitoba since the coaching staff won’t play the masked men in back-to-back situations very often.

Overall, I am impressed with the depth the Manitoba Moose will have this year…especially if none of the waiver-required players get grabbed when they are sent down to the minors. Equally as intriguing is the fact that the club may be able to boost its ‘ post-season chances with late season additions like F Brayden Yager, F Colby Barlow, F Jacob Julien, F Connor Levis, & D Alfons Freij (after their seasons in the WHL/OHL/SHL end). That could make up the loss of offense from Lambert possibly getting called up for a playoff run with the Winnipeg Jets.

Outlook for Manitoba Moose in 2024-25??

After dropping out of the top 3 AHL Central Division franchises last season, the team will be looking to get back into the race for the division title. Here are the squads the Moose will have to face the most often in 2024-25, courtesy of TheAHL.com:

In the minor league, it is fairly easily to qualify for the post-season, as is fitting for a developmental league that wants to expose its’ prospects to as many high intensity games as they can. The AHL is also odd in that there are different qualifying rules for each of its’ divisions, but we will focus on the Manitoba Moose’s. In the Central Division 5 out of 7 teams qualify for the playoffs, so that should give Winnipeg’s minor league team a good chance to get in again.

The rivals include the Texas Stars (Dallas), Milwaukee Admirals (Nashville), Chicago Wolves (Carolina), Iowa Wild (Minnesota), Grand Rapids Griffins (Detroit), and Rockford IceHogs (Chicago). Recent news from the Blackhawks indicates that high end prospects Frank Nazar & Kevin Korchinski both will be heading to the IceHogs…and those are just some of the great prospects Manitoba will have to go up against this year. While it is so hard to judge how AHL teams are going to do year-to-year because of the usual large roster turnovers, the Stars & Admirals have consistently been among the division’s best of the past few seasons. The Detroit Red Wings have selected a lot of players in recent drafts and that eventually makes their minor league squad that much better. After a year of being un-affiliated, the Wolves are back to being aligned with the Hurricanes, so that will give them a bigger player pool to select from.

When it comes down to the Manitoba Moose, once again it is hard to predict without knowing how many games (if any) Lambert will play in the AHL or if the defensive injury replacements will have to stay up longer than expected. With that excuse for being incorrect firmly planted in your mind, I will go out on a limb by saying that the Moose will most definitely make another post-season and in fact, will challenge for the division title.

If the top six of the graphic way above is in place for the majority of the Moose season, I could see all of them passing the 50 point mark…a feat that only Lambert managed to do last year. That increased offense will combine with an above average defense to give the Manitoba Moose a much better goal differential than 2023-24 (-18). I expect Milic & the other Manitoba goalies will face less prolonged periods of defending in the upcoming campaign, so their jobs should be easier than the workload Collin Delia, Oskari Salminen, & Milic faced on route to a 5th place finish.

I like their chances and really think they could challenge for the division title if Lucius can stay healthy, as I believe he will be the next Winnipeg Jets’ forward prospect to break out. Manitoba would be happy ending up anywhere in the top 3 of the Central, but getting the bonus of hosting a couple playoff games will make the #1 & 2 spots the most coveted.

I will most definitely be taking full advantage of my FloHockey subscription to watch all the Manitoba Moose games this year. Can’t wait to keep witnessing how prospects like Lambert, Chibrikov, Lucius, Salomonsson, and Lundmark develop this season. Should be quite the enjoyable campaign….and you can always get some cheap tickets to watch those future Winnipeg Jets in action at the Canada Life Centre!! If a night out to an NHL game is too much of a financial hit, the Moose can deliver close to the same bang without reducing the weight of your wallet too much.

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