The American Hockey League took advantage of the sleepy summer news-less period on the hockey calendar to announce the upcoming schedule for the league’s 32 franchises. And this article is a sure sign outlining just how little the media has been talking about our Winnipeg Jets….since I have nothing to write about other than the release of the Manitoba Moose’s 2025-26 schedule. Well, I don’t want to completely avoid the big league club, so here is a quick summary of the Jets’ situation at this point of the off-season.
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Winnipeg’s General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff still has plenty of work to do over the summer, with key Restricted Free Agents like Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan Samberg, & Morgan Barron in need of new contracts. Since all the RFAs opted to file for arbitration, us fans won’t have to wait longer than 4 weeks to find out what their new contracts will look like (Aug 4th, at the latest). I assume that management will want to avoid going through the entire arbitration process with any of their players, since that would limit Winnipeg to 1 or 2 year contracts. With Samberg & Barron one season away from Unrestricted Free Agency, the Jets would have to settle with the longer option only eating 1 UFA campaign. When it comes to Vilardi, any arbitration enforced deal would make Chevy opt for the 1 year option and hope that he can get the winger to re-up in his final RFA off-season next summer.
Then the GM also is able to start negotiating new extensions for upcoming free agents like Kyle Connor, Cole Perfetti, & Adam Lowry. All that while paying attention to the Jets’ trade board in the hopes that he will be able to add a top six level forward to his club. When it comes to Perfetti, Winnipeg has time on its side because the young forward is still 3 NHL campaigns away from unrestricted free agency. Therefore I think any new deal for Fetts is probably on Cheveldayoff’s backburner at this point, since upcoming UFAs Connor & Lowry represent more pressing matters. Maybe I am misreading the current Jets’ captain’s loyalty to the True North organization, but I don’t see letting Lowry play out the final year of his contract would be a huge roadblock to getting him signed in the upcoming off-season. The same can’t be said about Connor’s decision, in my mind. After watching Nikolaj Ehlers walk in free agency, I don’t think the fans have the stomach to go through that again. There is no way that management can use the same “own rental” argument to go into the 2025-26 season with an un-extended Connor on Winnipeg’s roster. The loss of the potential assets gained by trading a star player before you lose them would set the franchise’s future back in a big way if it happened in consecutive seasons. So…..if negotiations aren’t close by mid-August, I would be hitting the phones to see what kind of package I could potentially get for KFC. Losing a goal scorer like Connor would hurt whether it was via trade or free agency, but at least in the former scenario Winnipeg’s future is given a boost.
When it comes to any rumours about any of the current & upcoming Jets’ free agents, I really haven’t read anything about where Connor or Vilardi stand. When it comes to the big unsigned defenseman, at least there is an unconfirmed report that Samberg is looking for a long-term deal. Since the American turned down the chance to accept offer sheets by opting for arbitration, that appears to be great news since that suggests Sammy wants that long contract with the Winnipeg Jets. Cheveldayoff has over $19M to work with, so the money should be there to get everything done….the only question is how much will be left to help improve the Jets’ roster this year?
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Hey, weren’t you supposed to be talking about the minors?
Switching back to the Manitoba Moose, the minor league affiliate is coming off their worst season in their 17 year history. Their 25-41-3-3 record (.389 win %) gave them a measly 56 points and if it wasn’t for the 15 win Bridgeport Islanders, the Moose would have finished right on the floor of the basement.
So Cheveldayoff & Manitoba GM Craig Heisinger had their work cut out for them if they hoped to provide their prospects with a better environment to continue their development. The Moose will still be mainly filled up with young players this season, with a projected 12 drafted Winnipeg Jets’ prospects under the age of 25 likely to be on the Manitoba Moose. That includes three forwards becoming full-time professional hockey players for the first time, with Brayden Yager, Colby Barlow, & Jacob Julien making the leap from the Junior leagues. Like Yager & Barlow, former 1st rounder Brad Lambert will draw a lot of attention from Jets’ fans this season, as will former 2nd rounders Elias Salomonsson & Nikita Chibrikov. While training camp is still months away, it is likely that all of those prospects will spend at least some time in the AHL this year.
But what else changed for the Moose?
Manitoba ended up losing their top 2 point producers from last year, with defenseman Dylan Coghlan (.78 pts/gm – Golden Knights) and forward Dominic Toninato (.60 pts/gm – Blackhawks) moving elsewhere. Yet management did a good job replacing that production with the signings of forward Samuel Fagemo (.69 pts/gm – Reign) and defender Kale Clague (.57 pts/gm – Americans). To try to ensure the Moose don’t have the same troubles scoring goals, they also brought in another forward in Walker Duehr and he averaged .78 points per game playing with the Calgary Wranglers & the San Jose Barracudas.
The Jets’ AHL club also lost another long time player in the speedy Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (.42 pts/gm) when he opted to return to his native Sweden to continue his career. Yet Winnipeg bringing in forward Phillip Di Giuseppe has the potential to more than make up for that, as he scored at a .30 points per game pace in the NHL last year (Canucks) and at an impressive .86 points per game in his last 30+ game AHL season.
23 yr old Ben King just signed with the Toronto Marlies after scoring at a .41 points per game pace last year with Manitoba. While rookie Yager won’t replace what King’s 6’3″ frame brought, Brayden’s AHLe statistic suggests that his point production this season could make up for that loss in production. By the way, the AHLe is supposed to predict how a player in a lower league (i.e. Junior/NCAA) will do at the AHL level by using last season’s points. That stat could tell a couple of stories for fellow 1st rounder Barlow if you wanted….if you used Colby’s production during his final Junior regular season, then it suggests that he could score 18 pts (.25 pts/gm)….yet if you used Barlow’s playoff numbers to formulate the estimate, the AHLe said he could get closer to the point every 2nd game range as a rookie.
Finally, goaltender Chris Driedger wasn’t with Manitoba for the full season (5 gms/3.30 GAA/.872%), yet the veteran goaltender opted to leave his hometown for the KHL. In his place, the Jets have brought in 23 yr old Isaac Poulter, another Winnipeg-born tender who is coming off a good year with the Utica Comets. The Moose also added a young goalie of their own, with undrafted 20 yr old Alex Worthington joining the squad after finishing his Junior career with the Edmonton Oil Kings (2.99 GAA/.902%).
Who do you think the team could lose to a waiver claim?
Well, that is difficult to project without knowing who will make the Winnipeg Jets’ starting roster this year and which players won’t clear waivers on route to the Manitoba Moose due to a rash of injuries during training camp making openings on NHL rosters. At this moment, the True North franchise has 19 forwards and 12 defensemen that will require waivers to be sent to the minors. If I had to guess Winnipeg’s intentions for the breakdown of their roster, I would go with a 13 F – 8 D – 2 G set up, similar to last season. It is possible that the Jets go with the more standard 14 F – 7 D – 2 G route too, but as it stands they appear to be destined to lose a defenseman that they would rather not even if they go with eight.
I think it is safe to say that coach Scott Arniel probably won’t be risking any of these 13 forwards at the start of the season:
While some of you may note that Koepke & Pearson’s $1M salaries can be fully buried in the minors, I don’t expect that to come to pass unless their play with the Jets is bad. Tanner hasn’t suited up in the AHL for over 10 years and as long as he can perform passably well defensively, his scoring touch might be required in Winnipeg’s bottom six. So that could potentially fill up all the NHL slots if the club decides to go with only 1 extra forward….but with Lowry expected to miss at least part, if not all, of October that could open up an opportunity for one of the potential Manitoba Moose forwards.
That would leave these 6 forwards as potential waiver claims as training camp draws to a close:
I certainly won’t claim to know who & who wouldn’t pass through waivers in late September/early October, but I believe that each of these players have a good shot at clearing. Everyone other than David Gustafsson has recently dressed for an AHL team and with the youngest being 25 yrs old already, they can hardly be considered high demand prospects. In my Manitoba Moose depth chart graphic below, I left out the Gus Bus from the AHL club but his return to the antlers would certainly be a valuable addition.
It will be interesting to see if veteran newcomers like Fagemo or Duehr will be the coaching staffs’ choice to fill in for the recovering Lowry….or will the club use the opportunity to see what one of the prospects like Lambert, Chibrikov, or Yager can do at the NHL level. Gustafsson is also an option for that spot too, so his demotion to the minors isn’t a guaranteed thing at this point.
Moving onto the defensemen, these 6 players are guaranteed not to be sent to the AHL:
I can’t imagine there being much disagreement with that list, but this group also earn more than the maximum amount that can be stashed in the minors without a penalty to the NHL’s salary cap situation…so that also helps them. The real work begins when you start trying to figure out who should fill out the final 1 or 2 NHL spots, who Chevy should consider trading, and who should be sent through waivers to the Moose?
Barring injuries in trading camp, Winnipeg will have to risk at least one of Logan Stanley, Haydn Fleury, or Ville Heinola….all three who have a higher than average chance of being claimed on route to Manitoba’s roster. Based on past usage, that firmly puts a target on the 24 yr old Finn to draw the short straw. I still believe that Ville can be a 3rd pairing offensive defenseman at the highest level, but his injury troubles and playing time over the past couple of seasons has stopped him from reaching his full potential. Perhaps he will go the route of Jonathan Kovacevic & Declan Chisholm and get the chance to prove it with another NHL club…but his return to the Moose would infinitely improve the team’s outlook. I know all of us would be glad if Stanley ended up as the odd man out, yet I think that is unfortunately unlikely.
Isaak Phillips & Kale Clague have some experience at the big league level, but I think they are fairly safe to be sent down near the end of training camp, while Tyrel Bauer should have no issues slipping through waivers unclaimed.
So what could Manitoba’s depth chart look like next year?
I guess I wanted to take a pessimistic view of things, since I kind of left Heinola & Gustafsson in limbo….whether it is through a waiver claim or a trade, I didn’t include them below. Here is how I am currently predicting the depth chart to look like to start the 2025-26 AHL campaign.
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Has Chevy & company done enough to improve Manitoba’s outlook for the upcoming season?
I think management did a good job of ensuring that the Moose are more competitive offensively next year. I like the additions of veteran point producers such as Duehr, Fagemo, & Clague and the new rookies Barlow & Yager should help the club field a competitive top 9. If lady luck is smiling on them and they end up with Heinola & Gustafsson too, then Manitoba could have a surprisingly potent offense.
Defensively the outlook isn’t as promising. Manitoba did try to replace the loss of Coghlan with Clague, but the former was quite the game changer in the half of the year he did play with the Moose. That leaves Clague with some big shoes to fill. Cheveldayoff let former 2nd rounder Simon Lundmark walk after not making a qualifying offer and to date, no move has been made to fill that RD void. While the Swede might not end up as an NHL defenseman, he still was the 2nd best RD on the squad. Moose-signed players like Benjamin Zloty & Dylan Anhorn could help out in the top 4, but having 3 out of 4 of the top defenders being left-handed isn’t ideal. Hopefully the improved offense will help the club spend less time in their own end, thus making the defense’s job much easier. I still wouldn’t mind the addition of one more RD with top 4 potential though.
In net, I believe that Dominic DiVincentiis (2.91 GAA/.905%) and Poulter (2.75 GAA/.902%) will split the duties in Manitoba’s crease. With Thomas Milic (3.44 GAA/.877%) looking to rebound from a rough sophomore campaign and young Worthington manning the pipes with the Norfolk Admirals of the ECHL, I think there is reason for hope that depth can provide better than league average tending for the Moose.
Didn’t we start this whole thing by talking about the AHL schedule?
Thanks for the reminder…because there are some very nice things I noticed about this season’s Manitoba Moose schedule. Other than starting off the year by hosting the AHL-equivalent of the Presidents’ Trophy winning Laval Rocket for a two game set, the mini-Jets have little to complain about when it comes to the beginning of the 2025-26 campaign.
After that rough opening, the Moose get to finish October up with 6 games versus AHL clubs that finished in the bottom half of the standings last season. November starts off tough as well with 3 matches against division rival Texas (2nd best in Central), but concludes with 9 contests against the bottom half of the league. The good fortunes for Manitoba continue into December as they take on last year’s 4th, 5th, & 6th Central Division teams before capping off the calendar with a New Year’s Eve game against the defending Calder Cup champion Abbotsford Canucks. At this point, only 25% of the Moose’s matches were against the AHL’s top half from last year.
Amazingly, January projects to be even easier, with 8 of 10 games against the league’s bottom half, putting Manitoba at 76.3% for games against that group at that point. What a fantastic opportunity to have a great start to a season and it continues beyond the midway point of the campaign!!
Unsurprisingly, things start to get worse in February where 5 of 9 contests will be against the better clubs (still only 29.8% vs top half going into March). The going looks to be rough as the Moose’s AHL season concludes over the final two months (15 of 24 vs top half). In the end, Manitoba is set to play 40.9% of their games this year against the AHL’s better half….so hopefully a return to the post-season is on the horizon.
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You got anything else to add?
I think I took enough of your time talking about the minor league roster….but I am very much looking forward to getting the opportunity to watch Yager & Barlow play regularly. Hopefully improved play from the Manitoba Moose will make it easier to see where prospects like Lambert, Chibrikov, & Salomonsson are in their development as well.
Will we see those young men have breakout seasons? I know I’ve got my FloHockey subscription for next year and can’t wait until October 10th rolls around. Enjoy the summer everyone!!
