The Winnipeg Jets will be playing their 4th and final exhibition game of the National Hockey League’s 2026-27 season on Friday night. Things only started up a little over a week ago, it flew by so quickly….guess that is what happens when there are 2 less contests to schedule. Despite the apparent rush to get to the regular season games…our own hockey team will actually have to wait a full week before they kick things off by hosting the Boston Bruins at the Canada Life Centre on October 2nd.
Therefore tonight is the last opportunity against official opposition for some of the players remaining in the True North training camp to impress the coaching staff enough to solidify a spot on the NHL roster. Others will be focusing on locking up their spots on the depth chart or gaining chemistry with their linemates. Winnipeg will be visiting the Colorado Avalanche at the Ball Arena in Denver (7:30 pm CST) for their final warm up and therefore it is expected that the Jets will be icing a roster that should be fairly close to what we see when the games that matter begin. Yet the Avs have a double header on Friday & Saturday, so the home club will probably be less veteran heavy.
While Winnipeg will be finished with the exhibition games, they actually don’t have to trim down the roster to the maximum 23 players until Monday, September 28th at 4:00 pm CST. The True North franchise has decided to linger in Denver after the game for a day or two for team building activities, so we really might not see who is among the final cuts until then.
And that brings us to the question….who will actually be on the roster for our Jets when the season opens up on Oct 2nd? Besides the whole Connor Hellebuyck fiasco, this season offers an unusual site for the fans, as it is pretty much a guarantee that 3 different prospects will enter their first full NHL season with Isak Rosen, Brad Lambert, & Elias Salomonsson ready to don a Winnipeg jersey permanently in 26-27. From the buzz around camp & a look at the current roster, that figure could increase to 5 if the coaching staff decides that newly drafted Viggo Bjorck & prospect Brayden Yager have shown enough to make the squad. Finally, if the Jets decide not to make a waiver claim or trade before the season kicks off, then it could even go as high as 6 with one of Thomas Milic or Dominic DiVincentiis backing up Stuart Skinner.
Tomorrow’s line up may give us a hint at who has an inside track on roster & line up spots…but since I am writing this on Thursday evening, that will have to wait until. I do expect that we will see the top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, & Cole Perfetti, as well as the Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry, & Lambert checking line….whether Bjorck gets another shot alongside Rosen & Gabriel Vilardi, I am less sure, but hoping so.
Since only time will solve that puzzle, let us dive a bit deeper into the 34 players the Winnipeg Jets still have at training camp in the meantime. Unfortunately, 3 of those guys are currently injured*, so for the time being forward Walker Duehr and defensemen Salomonsson & Garrett Brown probably will go on Injured Reserve and not count towards the 23 player maximum until they are healthy. The young Swede is the only one that will stick around with Winnipeg after that, with the others bound for the Manitoba Moose. Here is the full list that head coach Scott Arniel has opted to keep around for further assessment:
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G (3): Stuart Skinner, Thomas Milic, Domenic DiVincentiis.
D (12): Josh Morrissey, Dylan Samberg, Dylan DeMelo, Neal Pionk, Mario Ferraro, Elias Salomonsson*, Jack St. Ivany, Henry Thrun, Haydn Fleury, Tyrel Bauer, Isaak Phillips, Garrett Brown*.
F (19): Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry, Viggo Björck, Isak Rosén, Brad Lambert, Brayden Yager, Morgan Barron, Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Iafallo, Cole Koepke, Noah Gregor, Danny Zhilkin, Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, Walker Duehr*.
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The True Northers are a team in transition, so I guess it is unsurprising that there are decisions to be made at all three general positions. To me it would seem that the DEFENSE is the most set, with the top six going to be Josh Morrissey–Dylan DeMelo, Dylan Samberg–Neal Pionk, & Mario Ferraro–Elias Salomonsson. With Salo still recovering from off-season shoulder surgery, that will essentially open up 2 spots on the NHL for the opening games. After everyone is at full health, then only one of Jack St. Ivany, Henry Thrun, Haydn Fleury, Tyrel Bauer, & Isaak Phillips will get to stay in the NHL (since I see the Jets keeping 14 forwards).
If you look at Winnipeg’s top six defenders, you will see their strengths are basically evenly split into the offensive (Morrissey, Pionk, Salomonsson) & defensive categories (DeMelo, Samberg, Ferraro). Then when you peer at the 5 guys fighting for that 7th defenseman role, you will also see that they are split the same way. Both Thrun & Fleury have the skating abilities to jump into a rush or skate the puck out of danger, while St. Ivany & Bauer shine more often in their own end. I am not exactly sure what category to put Phillips in, as he can skate well enough to be active while also being consistent defensively.
The fact that Ferraro is able to play on either side gives the coaching staff a bit of flexibility when choosing a 7th/8th d-men and coming into camp I would have put Fleury & St. Ivany in those spots. From the little of Thrun that I’ve seen in camp, plus his AHL season with the Toronto Marlies last year, I personally would slot him above the known quantity of Fleury based on potential alone….but don’t really expect the coaching staff to follow suit on that. I thought St. Ivany handled the constant pressure from Edmonton well enough in the opening pre-season game, but the number of turnovers in his game vs Colorado was less impressive. I love Bauer to death after watching him with the Moose for many years and the steps he made in his defensive numbers were massive last season…but just don’t think he has the wheels to be a permanent NHLer. Still undecided whether Phillips is only an NHL-AHL tweener, but I don’t think he’ll get the chance to start with the Jets.
The GOALTENDING situation for Winnipeg is partial solved, as there is little doubt that Stuart Skinner will be in the crease when the Jets open up against Boston. Yes, it is possible that Hellebuyck decides to return to the club when he starts missing paychecks…but I think that is highly unlikely at this point. Even if he does, without a pre-season start I would still expect to hear the CLC crowd chant “STUUUU” when the Bruins come to town. After the starter’s role, everything is up in the air…..
The only other tenders in camp to start exhibition games had entirely different experiences, as Thomas Milic was peppered by a strong Edmonton squad (4 GA/.852 sv%) while Dominic DiVincentiis fared better in an more even rematch with the Oilers (2 GA/.913 sv%). Whether it is because Milic was drafted a season earlier or because of his championship pedigree, it appeared to me that the Jets’ coaches had him after Skinner on the depth chart…and I am not sure DiVincentiis’ performance in the pre-season was enough to unseat that preconception. I like Dom’s game a lot, as his bigger frame (6’2″ vs 6′) allows him to play a version of Hellebuyck’s calm game. The 22 yr old was absolutely lights out for Manitoba in the playoffs last year (1.43 GAA/.955 sv%), but both goalies might not be consistent enough to rely on for a NHL backup role.
So where does that leave Winnipeg? Before looking at potential options via trade, the waiver wire is the easiest way to add some depth to the position. The Jets let former Tampa Bay back up Jonas Johansson go unclaimed yesterday, but there is an option that might draw their interest today. We will have to wait until around noon to see, but the Ottawa Senators put Leevi Merilainen on waivers on Thursday. The 24 yr old tender hasn’t seen a ton of NHL success with the Sens (3.02 GAA/.885 sv%), but the former 3rd round draft pick’s play in the AHL with Belleville shows promise (2.51 GAA/.915 sv%). Add to that, he is built more like Dom than Thom, so he also has that going for him.
There still will be other goalie options expected to come up though, such as Eric Comrie, David Rittich, Colten Ellis or Alex Lyon, and Laurent Brossoit. Who will the Jets end up picking??? At this point, the people over at PuckPedia have this prediction as Winnipeg’ starting defense & goalies for opening day:
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At the FORWARD position, Arniel has 5 remaining cuts to whittle down to the expected 14 skaters…though the inclusion of the injured and AHL bound Walker Duehr really brings that down to 4. The most recent practice at the Hockey For All Centre indicated that we should expect the coaching staff to stick with the Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, & Cole Perfetti top trio for at least a while longer. It also suggested that the middle six will be filled by 3 players about to dress for their 1st NHL season opener, with youthful Isak Rosen & Viggo Bjorck once again slotted aside Gabriel Vilardi and 22 yr old Brad Lambert joining veterans Adam Lowry & Morgan Barron on a new-look checking line. Finally, the 4th line could end up being the Veteran Trio, as Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov, & Alex Iafallo have the inside track to hold off any challengers.
That leaves us with 6 players fighting for those 13th & 14th forward roles and while there was plenty of talk about Brayden Yager potentially making the jump to the big league, the hint the most recent practice has given suggests that Cole Koepke and Danny Zhilkin may be the eventual choices. Yager not being eligible for a waiver claim might have played a role, as well as the opportunity to play top 6 minutes for the Moose instead of 4th line ice time with the Jets. The 21 yr old center has shown that he can play a 2 way game at the NHL level, but I think in order to reach his ceiling the offensive impact needs to be improved. More minutes, a lower level of competition, and a higher role in the attack with Manitoba could end up serving both him and Winnipeg in the future. I think Koepke’s play stood out a bit more in the pre-season over Zhilkin’s, though each of them has the speed to get the Jets back to the high intensity & pressure team they were in the President Trophy winning campaign. Replacing three 30+ year olds (Toews, Nyquist, Pearson) with a bunch of young 20-somethings will hopefully pay dividends in what could be a challenging 2026-27 season.
If that all ends up being correct, then Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, & Noah Gregor will have to clear waivers before heading for Manitoba. Personally, I liked what I saw from Gregor in the pre-season and would have been fine with Winnipeg keeping him on the squad….though since he cleared waivers last year, it might be better to keep Zhilkin, who would have to pass through them for the first time at the young age of 22 years. That youth alone might make a club give the big & fast forward a shot, so it may be best to hold onto him in case he turns into a Jonathan Kovacevic, Declan Chisholm, or Mikey Eyssimont (players claimed off the Jets & then went on to play varying amounts of time in the NHL).
I am crossing my fingers that any players cut don’t end up getting claimed, as our AHL club needs to be much more competitive this season if they want to put Winnipeg’s prospects (like Kieron Walton & Kevin He) in the best scenario to succeed. Here is how PuckPedia is projecting the Jets opening night lineup to look like:
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Before I sign off and ask you all to share your thoughts on how the Winnipeg Jets should set up their lines, I thought I would briefly discuss how the coaching staff under Arniel has deployed his team over the past couple of seasons.
Using a newly discovered website that breaks down the strength of opposition for NHL players (PuckIQ), I was able to confirm some long-held beliefs about how the True Northers used their top 3 forward lines. While I think last season’s data wasn’t what the coaches actually wanted to happen, they were forced to adjust to not having 4 lines they could run like they had the previous year. Yet it still paints pretty much the same picture.
If you look at the #1 unit centered by Scheifele, you will see that they always will play the most against the oppositions middle six, followed by the enemy’s top line (called elite on site), and then the 4th (called “gritenisty” on site). Last year they were forced to play a lot more against the elite competition (up 5.5%) to try to take up the slack from the other units, yet optimally KFC & company would be facing the middle six 40% of the time, while only seeing the other club’s 1st liners 30%. Now if Winnipeg’s top unit isn’t taking the toughest shifts most of the time, who is? Well, unsurprisingly it is the Jets’ captain Lowry’s trio. Again, last year’s woes accentuated that role as the “3rd” line faced elite competition a whopping 42.2% of the time. Like the 1st line, Lowry’s unit plays against the grinders the least (26-28%), leaving them with 32-35.5% of their ice time versus the middle six.
The True North’s 2nd line has long been a problem due to a lack of a center with that level of talent, but I was surprised by the differences with Nikolaj Ehlers and without him. Last season, the Perfetti line was put on the ice most often against grinders (37%), but that wasn’t that far removed from the middle six (31.7%) and elite (31.3%). Fairly evenly spread out, but when the Jets had a more talented unit with the speedy Dane, they actually sheltered them even more: 24.3% elite, 38.4% mid, & 37.3% grind. The dominant play of Winnipeg’s 3rd line in the 2024-25 season allowed the coaching staff to prioritize putting the more dangerous offensively 2nd line out against competition they could feast on.
Moving over to the defensive side of the puck, I think the Morrissey-DeMelo pairing had its ideal breakdown in Winnipeg’s Pres Trophy campaign when they faced the elite only 32.5% of their ice time, with the middle six being their main competition (38.2%) to go along with 29% versus the grinders. Last year, that plan went a bit off the rails with injuries to the 2nd pairing defenders and thus they ended with almost equal amounts (36%) of time against the 1st and middle sixers. Samberg-Pionk were clearly Arniel’s shutdown duo last season against elite competition (42.7% in 25-26), an almost 8.7% increase over the previous year. That change resulted in a 10% swing in shifts against the opponent’s middle six, going from 39% down to 29.2% last season.
The True Northers have tried to shelter the 3rd pairing as much as possible in the last 2 seasons, managing to have them face the grinders over 42% of the time. I wonder how the improved (on paper) bottom duo of Ferraro & Salomonsson will allow the coaches to spread out the “tough” shifts even more in 2026-27.
Anyways, if any of those numbers or the upcoming roster decisions made any thoughts come into your brains….lets hear them in the Comments section. Unfortunately, Friday’s Winnipeg-Colorado match won’t be on TV anywhere but we can still stream it through the Jets’ official site. I will be here to discuss the action, so if you want to start getting into regular season fan-mode, join me around 7:30 pm CST.
