Since it has been pointed out recently that the Winnipeg Jets seem to be playing better, I thought I would dig into the stats a bit to see if what “they” say is true.
Focusing on the most important part of a game, the 5 on 5 play, here is how our club has done through 38 games this season (via MoneyPuck).
This season (5 on 5):
Corsi % – 48.97% (21st in NHL)
Fenwick % – 48.72% (22nd in NHL)
xG% – 46.96% (26th in NHL)
Actual G% – 49.66% (15th in NHL)
Now those stats are pretty ugly….yet they don’t actually suggest the worst team in the league either. Thanks to Scheifele & the rest of the top line, the Jets are scoring more goals than they have “earned” over the 2025-26 campaign.
When you compare those numbers to how the President Trophy winning team did in 2024-25, you do see the huge fall from grace that has occurred.
Last season (5 on 5):
Corsi % – 50.12% (14th in NHL)
Fenwick % – 50.7% (10th in NHL)
xG% – 52.9% (7th in NHL)
Actual G% – 58.82% (1st in NHL)
As you can see, Winnipeg’s stats were unsurprisingly much better last year….though once again you see the trend of the Jets scoring more goals than expected (which us number crunchers don’t consider a sustainable feat). In the shot categories (Corsi/Fenwick), the True Northers pretty much broke even at even strength, which was a bad omen for the troubles the Jets had in the post-season.
Now that we understand what the True Northers looked like when they were getting great results and the data they put up this year while plummeting to the bottom of the league. It is time to check out the figures for the most recent 10 contests to see if they support that the Jets have been playing better lately, despite their record not agreeing with that.
Over the past 10 games (5 on 5):
Corsi % – 56.32% (3rd in NHL)
Fenwick % – 56.04% (3rd in NHL)
xG% – 51.15% (12th in NHL)
Actual G% – 51.43% (10th in NHL)
The above information should actually put a little bit of fear into those of us who are looking forward to Winnipeg potentially earning the chance to make the 1st overall selection. The Jets have been seriously out-shooting the opposition in the most recent action…putting up numbers that the club has rarely done over the past 7 campaigns.
Winnipeg also has made a big improvement in the Expected Goal category, going from 46.96% to 51.15%….though the lack of finishing hasn’t projected that onto the Actual Goal stats (49.66% to 51.43%). That unsustainable trend of our club scoring more goals than they actually earned has disappeared just as the team started playing more effectively, which has hid their improved play from the win-loss record.
Regardless, when you compare the stats to the President’s Trophy winning campaign, the data is much closer than a 1-6-3 record would suggest. Having better numbers in the shot categories in the Jets recent games but not seeing the xG’s increase at the same pace could tell us Winnipeg is taking more low danger shot attempts. Yet the expected & actual goal stats put them firmly in the top half of the NHL, so you would expect that if they keep this type of play up….then wins should start coming a lot more frequently.
Now, I am not suggesting that a resurgence is just around the corner and people should start saving up for the 1st round playoff tickets. Rather, this is just a cautionary note that Winnipeg may not end the year in last place. Sorry to put a damper on your dreams of Gavin McKenna wearing a Jets’ jersey next season…but the stats suggest that Winnipeg may need a bit of lottery luck to get the opportunity to draft that high up in the Entry Draft.
