The Winnipeg Jets will play their third contest in four days when the action gets underway at 5 pm Central, giving the hockey fans of Manitoba their first chance to see the Utah Mammoth this season. Both hockey teams have started off the 2025-26 NHL campaign in a positive way, as our Jets have racked up a 6-2-0 record while the Mammoth have surprised a lot of people with a 7-2-0 start.
When you compare the 2 NHL clubs goals for & against this year (actual numbers below in Match Up Stats section), you will see that both squads have been scoring over 3.5 goals per game and allowing slightly under 2.5. When you glance at MoneyPuck’s Goals % for all situations, you will see Utah has a 60.71% rating to sit in 2nd in the NHL, while Winnipeg is sitting at 59.57% in 4th place. That explains why the teams have winning records and suggests that both are playing good hockey at this point.
Yet, the shot & advanced stats indicate that one club is performing at a much higher level than the other. When you look at the the shot attempts (Corsi) and shots on net (Fenwick) numbers, the differences between Winnipeg & Utah are startling.
JETS: Corsi – 44.2% (30th) & Fenwick – 45.13% (29th)
MAMMOTH: Corsi – 50.81% (15th) & Fenwick – 53.91% (4th)
The data even gets worse when you delve into the Expected Goals (xG) stats…
JETS: xG% (all) – 46.91% (24th) & xG% (5on5) – 42.5% (32nd)
MAMMOTH: xG% (all) – 54.04% (3rd) & xG% (5on5) – 53.24% (10th)
I don’t want to sound like Chicken Little, but the sky might truly be falling on the Winnipeg Jets being anywhere near as good as they were last season. Our team have relied on the True Northers’ goaltenders playing lights out (92.28% saves for 2nd in NHL) to get the record they have currently, with Connor Hellebuyck holding the 3rd highest Goals Saved Above Expected rating (+7.7). Other positive, but unsustainable factors include the 3rd best shooting percentage and the best PK numbers in the league. On top of that, Winnipeg has been assisted by a very easy start to the 25-26 campaign, as illustrated in the monthly strength of schedule graphic below.
With no pre-game skates today, we probably won’t know what the starting lineup will look like tonight. I thought Nikita Chibrikov looked fine against the Flames, so I hope they continue to give him some rope to earn a permanent spot. For whatever reason, the projected line ups from PuckPedia weren’t updated after the Calgary contest, so the one below probably won’t be what we actually see. The move of Haydn Fleury up to the 2nd defensive pairing with Neal Pionk resulted in better numbers last game, but that also resulted in the bottom duo getting heavily out-played. Does that mean Luke Schenn returns to the ice after one game off and Colin Miller is back in the press box? Who knows.
While we wait for an answer to that, time to check out how ESPN displays the stats for the two clubs and then glance at PuckPedia’s likely incorrect line ups….
MATCH UP STATS
*****
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
The lines used last game were these, so they might be closer to what we see this evening:
Jets projected lines & D pairs:
Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi
Niederreiter-Namestnikov-Nyquist
Iafallo-Toews-Chibrikov
Koepke-Barron-Pearson
Morrissey-DeMelo
Fleury-Pionk
Stanley-Miller
Hellebuyck
Comrie
*****
UTAH MAMMOTH LINE UP
*****
The connections to our Winnipeg Jets on this year’s version of the Utah Mammoth are numerous, with former players such as Brandon Tanev, Kevin Stenlund, & Nate Schmidt all suiting up for this evening’s opposition. Then you could also add Jack McBain, the son of the Jets 8th overall draft pick in 1983 (Andrew McBain), to the list. And that is glossing over the reality that Utah’s franchise is the same one that started up in the Peg in the 1970’s.
I’ll admit that I am highly unconfident about the Jets’ prospects for Sunday’s match. Happened to catch parts of a couple of Utah’s games and I think their team speed will cause Winnipeg’s defensive core nightmares. Hope I am wrong…wouldn’t be the first or last time.
Go Winnipeg!!!!!
*****
POST-GAME INFO
**the information below will be added later Sunday night, so check back tomorrow to look over the numbers.**
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Utah Mammoth 3 Winnipeg Jets 2
*****
Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 4.50 UTH 2.84
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 2.39 UTH 2.25
The Winnipeg Jets played a pretty solid game on Sunday, winning the xG battle at 5 on 5 by a slight margin and getting plenty of looks on the powerplay to have over 4 expected goals. The cluster of shot attempts from right in front of Utah’s net indicate they were going to the dirty areas to find offense. All good signs.
The Jets top line started out a bit slow, but by the time the final horn rang they had earned an advantage in the xG battle. The 2nd line by even strength ice time, the Nino-Vladdy-Nyquist trio heavily outshot their opponents, but the remaining two forward lines gave up more than they created (4th gave up a GA too).
The opposite of what the stats have shown after Winnipeg games this season, with the top defensive duo on the wrong side of the xG battle while the other two pairs performed admirably. I have given Logan Stanley my fair share of criticism over his time with the Jets, but other than an early failed zone exit, the big guy had a very good game.
A rare occurrence, with Bucky finishing with a negative rating in the GSAE category, though he still walked away with a .906 save percentage.
*****
Despite ending up on the wrong side of the scoreboard, the Winnipeg Jets might have just played their first full 60 minute performance of the season. Yes, near the end of the 3rd period the legs of the NHL’s oldest team did seem to be running on fumes, but the boys were able to find the energy to make a final push for the equalizer.
With a pair of assists in the game, Josh Morrissey has improved to 7 points, which is good enough for a tie for 5th place in defensemen scoring. Mark Scheifele pocketed his 8th goal of the year as well, tying him with the New Jersey Devils’ Jack Hughes & the Ottawa Senators’ Shane Pinto for the NHL’s goal scoring lead.
Going into the contest, I was really beginning to worry that the returns of Adam Lowry, Dylan Samberg, & Cole Perfetti wouldn’t be enough to straighten out the ugly advanced stats….but I now have hope again after Sunday’s clash. Winnipeg can still play the tight gap defense that helped them become the President’s Trophy winners last year. They also created a good amount of offense against a team known for being stingy this season, so the loss hasn’t dampened my spirits as much as it would have in other circumstances.
The True Northers (6-3-0) will take a day off on Monday and then head out on the road to face another division rival in the Minnesota Wild (3-5-2) on Tuesday.
