I hope everyone had an enjoyable Easter long weekend…I certainly am happy that I used a few holiday days to stretch it to a full 7 days without doing my day job.
Moving on to look at the Western Conference’s wildcard race before action gets underway on Monday. The Winnipeg Jets are currently 3 points behind the Nashville Predators & Los Angeles Kings, who are tied for the 8th and final spot. The San Jose Sharks are only 2 points back of those clubs and 1 up on the Jets, while the St. Louis Blues have the same record as the True Northers but have an advantage in regulation wins (1st tie breaker).
Even with only 4 NHL games on the slate today, there are some that True North fans will want to keep their eyes on. Besides the Jets game versus the Seattle Kraken, there are a pair of late contests that could play a part in the wildcard/draft rankings standings. The Sharks will have a chance to tie the Predators & Kings for 8th with a win over the Chicago Blackhawks (8 pts back of WPG) when the game gets underway in San Jose. Then, in a vital game, the Preds & Kings will square off in California….which means that one of them will improve to 83 points on the season, making Winnipeg need a win tonight just to keep the gap to the wildcard at 3 points.
Time is running out with only 5 more games after Monday’s clash (@ STL, PHI, @ VEG, @ UTH, & SJ)….speaking of that, it is time to dive into the match preview.
WPG Jets @ SEA Kraken
Start Time: 6:30 pm Central – Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg (33-31-12) is in 25th place in the NHL with 78 points on the season, scoring 215 Goals For (25th) and allowing 232 Goals Against (10th). Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 60 assists and 94 points. Kyle Connor is the goal scoring leader with 36 goals, while Gabriel Vilardi is 6 back with a career high 28 goals. Gabe has also set a career high for points in a season and will be looking to add to his 62 points tonight.
Seattle (32-32-11) is tied for the 28th best record in the league with 75 points, scoring 210 Goals For (27th) and allowing 237 Goals Against (14th). Jordan Eberle leads the Kraken with 52 points, while also having the most goals with 24. Chandler Stephenson is the club’s leading assist getter with 30 helpers so far this season.
Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare when you look at the head-to-head data, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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Checking the figures over at MoneyPuck for team play at 5 on 5, neither franchise is having a great season as both clubs find themselves in the bottom half of the NHL. Winnipeg has the advantage in Expected Goals (47.91% to 46.07%) as the teams sit in 23rd & 29th in the league, but it is Seattle that has actually been slightly better at putting actual goals on the scoreboard (49.82% to 49%). The Actual Goal numbers place the Kraken in 17th and the Jets in 19th for that category.
The numbers also suggest that the Jets & Kraken play a similar game. Both clubs are in the top half of the NHL defensively, but have performed poorly enough to finish in the bottom 10 offensively. Seattle has to rely more on their depth to create chances on opposing tenders, as they are without a true star player at this point. Possibly someone like Matty Beniers turns into one, but as of now Winnipeg’s 4th best scorer would be tied for the Kraken scoring lead….Josh Morrissey at 52 pts. That gives the Jets an advantage in elite snipers, with Mark Scheifele (94 pts), Kyle Connor (87), and Gabriel Vilardi (62) all performing at a higher level than any Seattle skater.
Here are the line up projections for both clubs via PuckPedia based on the most recent games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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SEATTLE KRAKEN LINE UP
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Some line up changes for the True Northers, as it appears that Vladislav Namestnikov and Nino Niederreiter are ready to return from injury. Both forwards have been missing from the starting line up for quite a while, with Nino getting banged up in the Olympics and having missed 20 games since then and Vladdy playing 2 games post-Olympics before being on the sidelines for 18 contests.
Then, while Morgan Barron avoided missing much time due to his recent concussion, it now appears that he sustained a lower body injury in the win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. As a result, he will be one of the forwards going out to make room for the returning veterans, while Manitoba Moose call up Parker Ford is the other one who drew the short straw. Sounds like Connor Hellebuyck will get another start for Winnipeg as he continues to try to avoid finishing with a sub-.900 save percentage for the first time of his career.
Seattle seems to be relatively healthy, with only Shane Wright listed as day-to-day, so that doesn’t explain their 2-6-2 record in the past 10 contests. The Kraken were firmly in a playoff spot when the NHL regular season paused for the Olympics, but they have completely collapsed since the 3 week break, going a pathetic 5-12-2. That means they picked up a measly 12 out of 38 available points since February 5th, falling from the NHL’s 14th best record to the 28th.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Winnipeg Jets 6 Seattle Kraken 2
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 3.76 SEA 2.51
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 2.46 SEA 2.46
Winnipeg ended up breaking even at 5 on 5 last night, scoring 2 goals while allowing 2 against. For the forwards, it was the Scheifele line and a one shift unit of Lambert-Lowry-Niederreiter that scored for the Jets, while the normal Lowry line & a one shift unit of Koepke-Namestnikov-Lambert allowed Seattle to score.
In terms of expected goals, the True Northers had one top six line and one bottom six unit that were above 50% (Scheifele & Toews’ lines).
Two out of three defensive duos won the xG battle, with only the top pairing of Morrissey–DeMelo on the wrong side of the numbers. It was a rough one for those two, as they were on the ice for both goals against versus the Kraken, while the Samberg–Pionk pairing ended up playing a part in both of the Jets’ even strength goals.
Despite posting a .917 save % and a positive GSAE rating, Hellebuyck is still stuck at .898 save % for the entire year. Not sure if the 4 likely remaining starts will be enough for him to get above the .900 mark.
With the decisive win over the Seattle Kraken, the Winnipeg Jets moved into the 23rd spot in the National Hockey League and temporarily pulled with 1 point of the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot. But the late games altered that situation, as the San Jose Sharks win over the Chicago Blackhawks allowed them to pass the True Northers, dropping our club to the 24th spot. Then, the Los Angeles Kings & Nashville Predators ended up needing extra time, with the Californians pulling ahead in the wildcard race to re-take the 3 point lead on Winnipeg.
So, with 5 games remaining on the 2025-26 regular season schedule, the Jets find themselves with the 9th best odds in the upcoming Lottery Draft and a magic number of 4 in the wildcard race. That means any Winnipeg loss or Los Angeles victory will reduce that figure and if it gets to zero, then the Jets will be officially eliminated from post-season contention.
Our hockey team is off until Thursday night, when they will visit the St. Louis Blues for the 4th and final time of the year. With a 2-1-0 record facing our Central Division rivals, the clubs can split the series by winning their home games if the Blues come out victorious on April 9th. But before then, the Blues will play their game in hand tomorrow night versus the Colorado Avalanche and could use that to tie Winnipeg in points, thus dropping our squad down to the 25th spot in the standings.
I am not sure that any of the other franchises near the bottom have much chance of overtaking the Jets…so we will need some lottery luck if the True Northers are to get a top 5 draft pick this summer.
Enjoy your week everyone!!
