Up until now, the Jets have stubbornly remained in the wildcard fight, routinely picking up at least one point (only outright lost 4 of their past 16 contests). Despite Winnipeg often adding points to their year total, they actually have only managed to move from the 5th worst record to the 7th. However, since there are 5 teams with 2 or less points ahead of them in the standings….our hockey team could significant diminish the value of their upcoming 1st round draft pick over the remainder of the schedule.
Yet Tuesday begins a tough stretch for the Winnipeg Jets, as they will have four games against clubs that have historically caused the True Northers problems…..the Colorado Avalanche, the Dallas Stars, and today’s opposition, the Vegas Golden Knights. With only the easier Chicago Blackhawks in the next 5 contests, there is a possibility that the Jets could walk away with only 2-3 out of 10 potential points and stall their slow crawl up the standings.
Lets take a look at Game 1 of that stretch…..
VEG Golden Knights @ WPG Jets
Start Time: 7 pm Central – Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg (29-29-12) is tied for 26th place in the NHL with 70 points on the season, scoring 199 Goals For (tied for 24th) and allowing 219 Goals Against (tied for 19th). Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 31 goals, 52 assists, and 83 points (been stuck there for a couple games now). Kyle Connor is tied for the goal scoring lead as well, while Gabriel Vilardi is 4 back with 27 goals.
Vegas (32-25-14) has the 18th best record in the league with 78 points, scoring 224 Goals For (14th) and allowing 221 Goals Against (21st). Pavel Dorofeyev has the most goals for the Knights this year (34), Mitch Marner has the most assists (51), while Jack Eichel leads the club in points (74).
Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare when you look at the head-to-head data, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The biggest differences between Winnipeg & Vegas this year have mainly come in three categories: Goals scored, Power Play success rate, and Penalty Killing abilities….where the Knights hold key advantages.
The Jets stand 5 points back of the Nashville Predators for the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot, while the Golden Knights sit in 2nd in the Pacific Division….yet if the Edmonton Oilers (1 pt back) and Los Angeles Kings (5 pts back) finish the season better, they could find themselves outside of the playoff picture.
Here are the line up projections for both clubs via PuckPedia based on the most recent games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS LINE UP
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Word on the street indicates that both Vladislav Namestnikov & Nino Niederreiter were on the ice today skating…but since they were sporting non-contact jerseys, the two veterans’ return isn’t imminent. So expect the same line up as the Jets’ most recent game….with the likelihood the Connor Hellebuyck returns to the crease. That might be good for the “tankers” among us, as back up goalie Eric Comrie has won his last 6 starts.
I quickly looked at Winnipeg & Vegas ‘ advanced stats on MoneyPuck and noticed that while both have similar Actual Goal % rates at 5 on 5 (VEG 49% WPG 48.39%), it is the visitors who are more adept at creating scoring chances (VEG 53.66% WPG 48.16%).
So while the Golden Knights have only scored the 18th most goals at even strength, they “should” have scored the 5th most. The Jets, on the other hand, hold the 20th best Actual Goals % which is actually better than expected (24th).
That is all I got this morning……
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Winnipeg Jets 4 Vegas Golden Knights 1
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 4.20 VEG 1.94
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 1.77 VEG 1.38
Despite the lopsided numbers in the xG battle, the Winnipeg Jets didn’t take the lead until the early 3rd period…so a lot of the True North chances came after Vegas began opening up to push for a comeback. Our club capitalized on the few looks they received early in the game and the Knights never really looked like they were going to win once they fell behind.
The Jets gave quite a few different combinations an opportunity last night and the above 3 all received at between 8 & 9:28 of ice time. This group was also responsible for all 3 Winnipeg even strength goals, with the Lowry unit scoring once while the Scheifele line pocketed a pair.
Winnipeg didn’t give up any 5 on 5 goals against since Vegas scored their only goal on the PP, so no minuses for the Jets last night.
The final 3 forward lines received between 2 & 4 minutes of playing time together, with two of the three finding statistical success in the xG battle….though none of these actually created much offense either.
Winnipeg’s top 2 pairings were on the ice the most, skating for between 11 & 13 minutes at 5 on 5. The Morrissey–Pionk duo continue to surprise me by winning the xG battle and they added an even strength Jets’ goal to that against Vegas. The younger Samberg–Salomonsson duo wasn’t as good statistically, as they ended up spending a lot of their minutes in their own end.
The Jets’ starting 3rd pairing (Fleury–DeMelo) did well with 6 minutes of ice time despite getting outshot 2-1, as the xG numbers were 0.391 to 0.092 in their favour.
The Samberg–DeMelo duo saw about 5:30 of playing time together and while they slightly lost the xG battle, they were on the ice for one of Winnipeg’s 3 even strength goals. Fleury & Salomonsson’s stats above don’t look very good, but really nothing much happened in their 3 minutes together (total of 0.05 xG’s for both clubs).
Finally, the young Swede got a bit more than a minute on Winnipeg’s top pairing and the Jets had the only shot attempt while they were on the ice.
Other than flurries to start and end the game, it seemed to me that Connor Hellebuyck had a pretty quiet night. Hellebuyck kept Vegas off the scoreboard as they came out flying to outshoot Winnipeg 9-0 in the early minutes….then the Jets took control of the game in the early 2nd when they scored on back to back rushes. Bucky wasn’t called on to save the day on Tuesday….but he played well enough to give his team a chance and the end of his string of negative GSAE ratings will make him happy.
Here are the NHL’s standings after last night’s games, focusing on the bottom of the NHL:
As you can see, the Winnipeg Jets have moved out of their long-held 27th place spot to pass the San Jose Sharks and tie the Seattle Kraken. Fortunately, both clubs have at least a game in hand so there is hope that the current state of things will only be temporary…..but the teams have been playing horrible lately and are on 5 & 4 game losing streaks.
The St. Louis Blues seem like they really want to pass the True Northers, going 7-1-2 in their past 10 contests……so I would think it would only be common courtesy for Winnipeg to allow them to over the final 11 games of the season.
Quiet night for the NHL on Wednesday with only 2 games on the slate and only the Toronto Maple Leafs-New York Ranger game matters to our team. With one squad slightly ahead of the Jets and the other 7 points back….I am guessing we should be cheering for a Toronto win in OT??
The True Northers will be back at it on Thursday when they host the Colorado Avalanche….see you then.
