A very early game on Saturday has led to another abbreviated preview…..
WPG Jets @ PIT Penguins
Start Time: Noon Central – PPG Paints Arena
Winnipeg (28-29-11) is in 27th place in the NHL with 67 points on the season, scoring 192 Goals For (26th) and allowing 212 Goals Against (tied for 17th). Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 31 goals, 52 assists, and 83 points. Kyle Connor is tied for the goal scoring lead as well, while Gabriel Vilardi is 5 back with 26 goals.
Pittsburgh (34-18-16) is in a tie with the 7th best record in the league, scoring 235 Goals For (8th) and allowing 210 Goals Against (tied for 14th). Sidney Crosby leads the Penguins with 28 goals and 61 points this year, while defenseman Erik Karlsson has the most assists (43).
Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare when you look at the head-to-head data, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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While the two franchises have allowed similar goals against per game this season, it is the Penguins’ offense that has vaulted them into the playoff hunt while the Jets flirt with a top 5 draft pick in the upcoming entry draft. Goaltending hasn’t been a strength for either club this year, as none of the potential starters are above a .900 save percentage. One final advantage for the hometown Pennsylvanians is their success on special teams, with the 3rd best PP unit and the 2nd most successful PKers.
Here are the line up projections for both clubs via PuckPedia based on the most recent games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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PITTSBURGH PENGUINS LINE UP
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With Winnipeg facing back-to-back games this weekend, both masked men will have a chance to suit up….but with Connor Hellebuyck coming off possibly his worst outing of the campaign, I am leaning towards Eric Comrie getting the call versus the Pens. The back up hasn’t lost a start since January 1st, winning 5 straight while only allowing 7 pucks to get by him.
Pittsburgh has gone 5-3-4 since the Olympic break, but only got their captain back from injury the last game (a 5-4 SO loss to CAR).
Speaking of injuries, it does sound like defenseman Neal Pionk will be ready to return from the injury that has kept him out of the line up since January 13th. Not exactly sure how that will impact the coaching staff’s decisions, but I have seen nothing that suggests that rookie Elias Salomonsson can’t handle the top 4 minutes he has been playing….so maybe they ease Pionk in on the 3rd pairing? Or Scott Arniel will return to the duo of Dylan Samberg & Pionk, sliding the young Swede down to play with one of Haydn Fleury or Jacob Bryson (not Fleury please). I won’t bother to guess at the forward lines after another game where the coaches shuffled things up constantly….but I would guess it would be a return to the typical starting units they have been using mostly. While I have appreciated the play of the current 2nd line…I personally would like to see young players like Isak Rosen & Brad Lambert get some top six looks. And not just when the starting lines aren’t working out or the game is out of hand….give the prospects a solid chance by guaranteeing them a game or two near the top, without fear that a mistake will result in a quick return to the bottom six. Just my thoughts…..and I will sign off with those 2 cents spent. Let me hear what alterations you would like to see in the Comments section….I know a promotion of Morgan Barron to 2nd line center is one idea that has been put out there by a few people.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Pittsburgh Penguins 5 Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): PIT 3.22 WPG 2.88
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 2.56 PIT 2.40
The Penguins didn’t take the lead in the xG battle for all situations until overtime, while the Jets slightly won the even strength play.
Winnipeg only deployed 4 main line combinations today with the Jets’ top six getting between 16 & 12 minutes of 5 on 5 play, while the bottom six were limited to the 6 to 9 minute range.
Good debut from the Lambert–Barron–Rosen unit, winning the xG battle (59%) and outscoring the Penguins 2 to 0. They did also give up scoring chances at a higher rate than any other line, but they also were Winnipeg’s best line at creating them.
With the recent success from the Lowry line as well, wonder if you could see the top 3 units above being together next season? Hopefully Chevy could upgrade Iafallo on Scheifele’s line, sending the veteran to be part of the 4th line, which they would have to upgrade quite a bit with a couple new additions. Running it back with Niederreiter & Namestnikov is another option, but would it be enough to give Winnipeg 4 solid lines that could hold their own?
So many defenseman combos today……the top 2 pairs above played 10 minutes each at even strength, while the other two were in the 6 to 9 minute range. Most of the duos did well, but unfortunately Morrissey–Salomonsson didn’t gel in their time together (12.1% xG).
This group didn’t allow a goal against, while both pairs with Pionk were able to score one for Winnipeg.
The top pairing in this group had the most ice time, with 4:36 together after DeMelo returned from his benching (1GF/1GA). The other 3 duos had between 2:30 & 3:00 minutes, performing statistically well, but the Fleury–Pionk pairing did allow a goal against.
One final chart of defensemen, playing around 2 to 2:30 together but managed to not be on the ice for either a Jets’ goal or a Penguins’ one.
Another rough outing from Hellebuyck, though much better than the stinker he laid up in the most recent loss. Bucky still made some huge saves that appeared almost certain to enter the net….but some inconsistency on clean or partially screened attempts showed that his focus wasn’t at the level we’ve grown to expect.
***Still haven’t seen the highlight video uploaded to YouTube…will add that once I notice it. Have a good weekend!!**
