Tonight’s NHL game at the Scotiabank Saddledome features a pair of clubs with differing trajectories early on in the 2025-26 campaign. Our Winnipeg Jets began the year with a loss on opening night, but since then have pulled off 4 straight victories for a 4-1-0 record. The opposition tonight, the Calgary Flames, have almost done the exact opposite…winning their opener 4-3 in a shootout before dropping 5 straight games to sit with a 1-5-0 record.
The Jets’ one game road trip will kick off with an 8:30 pm Central start time where Winnipeg’s perfect road record (2-0-0) will go up against Calgary’s poor home record (0-2-0). Despite the vast differences in the standings so far, the advanced stats say the teams have been putting up similar expected goals, Corsi, & Fenwick numbers. The deciding factor has been the club’s finishing touch’s….with the Jets sitting in the top 3 of Actual Goals % in the NHL at 63.64%, while the Flames hold the worst rating of 28.57% (as well as the worst shooting % of 6.9%).
I know Winnipeg is still missing some key players, but besides the win-loss column & special teams successes, the Jets have been putting up some worrying numbers. Here are the True Northers’ stats for 5 on 5 play in the limited action so far:
xG (all): 46.84% (24th in NHL)
xG (5on5): 42.86% (31st in NHL)
Actual G (all): 63.64% (3rd in NHL)
Actual G (5on5): 54.55% (10th in NHL)
Shooting %: 17.95% (1st in NHL)
PIM taken: 58% (2nd most in NHL)
Save %: 92.11% (3rd in NHL)
When you consider that Expected Goals at 5 on 5 stat is a key indicator of potential playoff success, it is down right worrisome to see the Jets putting up sub-par numbers. Last season, when they were on route to an eventual President’s Trophy Winnipeg finished in the top 10 in xG% and still couldn’t make a real long run in the post-season…so this doesn’t inspire hope they can break that wall this season. Besides the fact that our hockey team has been taking way too many penalties early on this year, the Jets’ shooting percentage is not sustainable. The club that is 2nd place this season, the New Jersey Devils, is being successful a crazy 5% less often, so the lack of shots on opposing goalies will start hurting Winnipeg when the shooting success begins to return to normal ranges (team shot 11.87% last yr).
But maybe all those bad omens are erased when captain Adam Lowry (skating in a full-contact jersey), Dylan Samberg (skating with wrist in cast), and Cole Perfetti (just returned to the ice & apparently looked agile) return? For sure they will be improved…but by how much? We will have to wait & see…..
In the meantime, former 1st round draft pick Brad Lambert will be making his NHL debut this year, as the coaching staff continues to search for a combination that makes the middle six work consistently well. With the top unit of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, & Gabriel Vilardi scoring and the duo of Morgan Barron & Cole Koepke looking like 4th line locks, head coach Scott Arniel has opted to mix up the middle six….check the changes out below in our pre-game stat pack with team comparison stats from ESPN and the projected line ups from PuckPedia:
MATCH UP STATS
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WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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CALGARY FLAMES LINE UP
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Think I might have used up all my thoughts in the early section, because I can’t really think of much to add here. Dustin Wolf is way too good of a goalie to continue to put up sub-.900 save percentages, so hopefully he doesn’t figure things out tonight. Also interested in seeing Calgary’s former 9th overall pick, Zayen Parehk, play in his rookie campaign (held off the board through 4 gms).
As for our Jets….I am loving what I’ve seen from the Bear this year, so looking for the big center to pick up another point tonight. Would also be glad to watch Jonathan Toews net his 1st goal with Winnipeg, 1st line winger Gabe shake the monkey off his back by lighting the red lamp, or rookie Lambo pocketing one in his first game. Maybe all of the above??
Either way, since the Flames have averaged less than 2 goals scored per contest, the Jets might only need a bit of offense to pick up 2 more points tonight.
Go Winnipeg!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
**the information below will be added Tuesday morning, so check back tomorrow to look over the numbers.**
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): CGY 3.27 WPG 1.95
Expected Goals (5on5): CGY 2.07 WPG 0.70
***the Jets used 7 different forward combinations versus the Flames, with icetimes between 2:02 and 9:55.***
***yet again, only the Morrissey-DeMelo pairing finished with a positive expected goals rating.***
***Bucky continues to add to his season Goals Saved Above Expected rating (+6.8 for the 4th best mark in the NHL).***
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The Winnipeg Jets continue to win despite what the stats suggest should have happened….but I guess we should be happy that the club has won 5 straight contests. From the sounds of it, Adam Lowry & Cole Perfetti could be back in the lineup fairly soon (within 5 gms), so maybe the underlying numbers will improve.
