The Winnipeg Jets have gone 2-1-0 on their road trip so far and will be looking to finish the trek on a positive note against their division rivals, the Dallas Stars. Both Central Division franchises are fighting for positioning in the NHL’s standings, but find themselves in quite different situations. The Texans are having another good season, but the dominance of the Colorado Avalanche and the Minnesota Wild’s play post-Quinn Hughes acquisition have the Stars scrapping for 2nd place & home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. While the True Northers have a tough long road ahead if they want to work their way back into post-season contention, needing to gain 9 points on the Los Angeles Kings & Utah Mammoth just to get into a 3-way tie for the final wildcard spot.
With 51 points through 53 games, Winnipeg holds onto the 27th worst record in the NHL, giving them the following odds in the upcoming lottery (via Tankathon):
So lets use Tankathon’s lottery simulator once again to see how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out with these probabilities:
- New York Rangers (11.7% odds)
- Calgary Flames (9.6% odds)
- Vancouver Canucks (58.1% odds)
- St. Louis Blues (40.4% odds)
- Chicago Blackhawks (25.6% odds)
- Winnipeg Jets (35.7% odds)
Once again in our mock draft, the last place Vancouver Canucks weren’t rewarded with the 1st overall selection as the 3rd place NY Rangers & 4th place Calgary Flames each jumped up 2 spots. That made the remaining clubs fall into line behind those lucky teams based on their season’s records, leaving the Winnipeg Jets with the 6th pick. While that selection is very high in the draft, it still likely will result in the top 4 forwards going off the board before GM Kevin Cheveldayoff gets his chance. They had the Jets go with 6’2″ RD Chase Reid, who the scouts project as an eventual top pairing defender.
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Okay, enough of looking forward to late June, it is time to get back to today’s contest (7:30 pm Central) between the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars. The two clubs clashed in the 2nd round of the playoffs last season, but it seems unlikely at this point that the True Northers will get a chance for redemption this year. With 22 points separating them in the standings, the squads are in very different situations.
Dallas (32-14-9) is currently 1 point behind the 2nd place Minnesota Wild in the Central Division, with the Colorado Avalanche holding a 7 or 8 point lead on both of them. Comfortably in a playoff position, the Stars will be using the 9th highest scoring offense (184 GF) and the 3rd stingiest defense (153 GA) to jockey for position over the rest of the regular season.
Winnipeg (22-25-7) is 6th in the Central Division, 5 points behind the 5th place Nashville Predators and 9 points behind the 4th place Utah Mammoth, who are currently tied for the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference. The Jets’ defense has been okay this season with the 13th least goals against (166 GA), but their difficulties are displayed in their offense, which is tied for the 23rd least efficient (156 GF).
Both franchises are entering action with a win in their recent memories, but the Stars are on a 4 game heater while the Jets are coming in off a 2-1 victory over the Florida Panthers. Lets continue our look at the numbers…here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The Team Stats certainly show why Dallas has been much better this season, especially in the Goals For, Goals Against, and Power Play Conversion rates. Winnipeg couldn’t deal with the Stars’ PP in the playoffs last year and they would be wise to avoid dealing with their 30% scoring rate as much as possible tonight.
Neither potential starter for Team USA has played up to their normal levels, as Connor Hellebuyck’s +7.8 Goals Saved Above Expected rating has him ranked 17th in the NHL and Jake Oettinger’s +1.5 GSAE is tied for 35th in the NHL. It is too early to be sure since the morning skates haven’t taken place, but it seems like the two may face off tonight at the American Airlines Center because neither dressed in their team’s last outing. For now, we will rely on the line up projections via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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DALLAS STARS LINE UP
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Other than tinkering with the bottom of their defensive pairings, I don’t think the Dallas Stars will have to do too much to get ready for a playoff run. Maybe another goal scorer up front would help them compete better with the Avs….but they look fairly dangerous to me as is.
No word on whether Gustav Nyquist will dress for a second straight match….he didn’t look out of place to me, so I think he should get a shot. Really don’t understand why Chevy hasn’t traded him yet, unless there is absolutely no demand for the aging Swede.
Once a star defenseman for the Manitoba Moose, Kyle Capobianco will get to suit up against his former squad, while on the opposite side Vladislav Namestnikov will play a franchise he spent a very brief time with (15 games).
That is all I have time for today….hope you enjoyed the read. Have a good day!!
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Dallas Stars 4 Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): DAL 4.30 WPG 2.83
Expected Goals (5on5): DAL 2.99 WPG 1.77
Only the Lowry line managed to win the xG battle last night and they also managed to score Winnipeg’s only 5 on 5 goal of the contest. Connor & Scheifele were on the ice for both of Dallas’ even strength goals, once with Nyquist on the wing and the other time with Iafallo.
None of the defensemen’s advanced stats were that great, but rookie Salomonsson didn’t allow the Stars to get one by Bucky when he was playing. A very rough outing for the Stanley–Schenn duo, who allowed 1 goal against and had a pitiful 3.2% of the xG’s. At least Big Stan scored a goal with the goalie on the bench, so his fans will be happy despite the poor numbers.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
With the 1 point earned by the Winnipeg Jets on Monday, the club now finds themselves 9 points back of the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot. Despite going 7-3-3 since January 9th, the True Northers have only gained 2 points on the wildcard race. With that pace, the Jets would have to play 65 more games to make up the 10 points they need to qualify for the playoffs. Since there is only 27 games left in the season, that makes me think GM Kevin Cheveldayoff should switch to sell mode during the upcoming Olympic break.
Next up is the Montreal Canadiens, who will visit Winnipeg on Wednesday for the teams’ final game before the nations of the world begin to compete for medals. The schedule does get easier when the Jets get back into the swing of things, with half of their next 8 games versus the NHL’s bottom 6 franchises.
