The Winnipeg Jets began their road trip with a win in New Jersey, but the competition will get more difficult in the second stop when they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning. The True North victory didn’t result in our club gaining any ground in the wildcard race, as the San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, & Seattle Kraken all won on Tuesday too. Therefore the Jets were in the 4th worst slot in the NHL team points percentage until the New York Rangers dropped another contest last night, leaving Winnipeg with the 28th position’s lottery odds before the action gets underway on Thursday.
According to Tankathon, the would give our team the following odds if the lottery draw took place this morning:
1st: 8.8% / 2nd: 8.9% / 3rd: 0.3% / 4th: 0% / 5th: 26.2% / 6th: 43.2% / 7th: 12.7%
Using the site’s lottery simulator, here is how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out in this scenario:
- Calgary Flames (11.9% odds)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (5.3% odds)
- Vancouver Canucks (54.4% odds)
- St. Louis Blues (40.2% odds)
- New York Rangers (44.5% odds)
- Winnipeg Jets (43.2% odds)
The Flames jumped up from 3rd to grab first overall in this mock, while the Blue Jackets went all the way from #12 to #2 to grab one of the top prospects. The rest played out with the franchises earning the spot they had the highest odds to obtain. Interesting, this mock draft had Winnipeg grabbing 6’3″ LD Albert Smits over 6’2″ center Caleb Malhotra…..not the decision I would hope GM Kevin Cheveldayoff would make with those options.
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Enough of looking ahead to the summer, lets get back to the contest that will occur tonight at the Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. Two franchises with extremely different stories in the 2025-26 campaign, as the Lightning hold the NHL’s 2nd best record while the Jets have the 4th worst point total.
Tampa (33-14-4) have been excellent in the past month or so, compiling a 15-1-1 record since December 20th. That hot span included an 11 game winning streak, which actually equals Winnipeg’s longest losing skid this year. The Lightning are one of the teams that it is hardest to score on, with their great goaltending from starter Andrei Vasilevskiy helping them to allow the 2nd least goals against (130). Offensively, the Floridians are firing on all cylinders as their 179 goals for had them tied for the 6th most in the NHL.
Winnipeg (21-24-7) have had the chance to win most of their recent matches, yet have only managed a 6-6-3 record over their last 15 to remain near the bottom of the NHL. Defensively the Jets remain near the middle of the pack (13th w/ 161 GA), but their goal scoring effectiveness continues to hurt them (tied for 23rd w/ 153 GF).
To continue our look at the numbers…here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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Tampa has a half goal advantage over Winnipeg in goals scored & allowed, plus have received better play from the goaltenders & special teams….so the 21 point gap between the two clubs in the standings is fairly easy to understand. The Bolts are looking like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season, yet they are still battling the Detroit Red Wings for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. Fortunately for them, they have a 1 point lead plus 3 games in hand over the Wings, so their main competition may be the Carolina Hurricanes for the top spot in the East (TB up by a point with a game in hand).
The Jets on the other hand need to gain 4 games on their competition just to get into a four way tie for the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot. Which makes a playoff appearance highly unlikely as Winnipeg would have to win over 65% of their games while hoping Los Angeles, Seattle, & San Jose only play .500 over the final 30 games. If the True Northers do happen to make a charge, it seems most likely it will result in them overtaking the Chicago Blackhawks & Nashville Predators only to fall short of the wildcard spot. Which is kind of the worst case scenario for any fan of the Manitoban franchise. Still no playoff action to watch & an increased likelihood at getting a worse draft position. MoneyPuck currently has Winnipeg with a 6.7% shot at making the post-season, the 7th worst odds in the league.
Doing this very early so now news yet but I don’t think the Jets will make any changes, so here are the line up projections for both teams at this point, via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING LINE UP
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I noticed that former Winnipeg Jets’ prospect Simon Lundmark made his NHL debut with Tampa Bay a few days ago, but he has since been re-assigned back to their minor league club (5 pts in 22 gms w/ Syracuse Crunch). The only other connection that I can think of is (and I may be wrong), but I believe Vladislav Namestnikov played for the Lightning at one point.
Another busy day at work……so will sign off with Tampa & Winnipeg’s top 4 scorers:
WPG: Mark Scheifele (63 pts), Kyle Connor (60), Gabriel Vilardi (46), & Josh Morrissey (42)
TB: Nikita Kucherov (80 pts), Jake Guentzel (55), Brandon Hagel (49), & Darren Raddysh (44)
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 Winnipeg Jets 1
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): TB 3.32 WPG 1.91
Expected Goals (5on5): TB 1.86 WPG 1.69
The Scheifele & Toews’ lines gave up goals to the Lightning, but only the top unit was able to score one of their own. The 4th line only had about 5.5 minutes of ice time, but were the trio that had the most success. The line blender was put into action late in the game, but other than finding some success at creating offense for Perfetti & multiple different linemates….it didn’t result in much.
The Jets’ top two defensive duos had over 15.5 minutes of 5 on 5 playing time together, with Samberg–Salomonsson breaking even with a goal for & against. The other goal Tampa Bay got last night went against the Stanley–Schenn pairing, but MoneyPuck doesn’t have the Bolts’ other even strength goal listed in the stats.
Hellebuyck wasn’t that great early on, but by shutting the door in the 3rd period he almost broke even in the GSAE category.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
Well, I can’t say that I am surprised by the result on Thursday since the stats suggested that this one could be lop-sided. But watching the Tampa Bay Lightning’s relentless pressure made me nostalgic for how the Winnipeg Jets played last season. The Bolts could be a tough out in the playoffs this year.
Next up for the Jets is a game versus Paul Maurice and the Florida Panthers. The Cats will be coming in off a loss to the lowly St. Louis Blues, so Scott Arniel & the True Northers will have to come up with a better effort if they want to avoid another loss.
