The Winnipeg Jets let a 5 game winning streak slip through their hands on Saturday when they let the Toronto Maple Leafs storm back from a 2 goal deficit to snag an overtime victory. That has unfortunately become a common theme for the True North franchise in the NHL’s 2025-26 campaign, leading to our hockey team sitting in the 2nd last place in the league.
As a result of that, some of the Jets’ fanbase have started to turn an eye to the upcoming draft with the hope that Winnipeg can select a game changing player to uplift the future of the franchise. With tempting prospects like Gavin McKenna & Ivar Stenberg gracing the top of most mock drafts….who could blame them? So, with those people in mind, I have decided to add a new section to our preview that will feature an ongoing look at the odds GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will have the opportunity to draft someone in the top 5. Using the website Tankathon, we can follow along on as the Jets’ odds rise & fall throughout the rest of the season.
Based on the NHL’s current standings, the above chart displays the chances each of these franchises have in the upcoming draft lottery. You will note that whomever finishes with the worst record in the league cannot drop beyond the 3rd overall selection, while the second & third place clubs could drop as far as 4th & 5th respectively. Also, only the worst 11 teams have a shot at getting the chance to make the 1st overall selection and only the worst 13 squads can break into the top 3.
It is interesting to see that based on probability alone, a team finishing in the bottom 6 spots is more likely to draft later than their pre-lottery rankings suggest. For example, the last place team is most likely to draft 3rd overall (55.7%) while the 2nd & 3rd worst clubs are predicted to draft 4th most often (41.7% & 39.7% respectively). For the franchises finishing in the 7th to 16th spots, they are statistically most likely to draft in those exact same position. Which makes it even more amazing that a team like the NY Islanders came from this group to win the 1st overall pick last year.
When it comes to Winnipeg, they currently have a 13.5% shot at 1st overall, a 14.4% chance at the 2nd pick, odds of 30.7% for the 3rd selection, and 41.7% of the time will end up in 4th. Since Tankathon also has the option to run a simulation of the Draft Lottery, I figured I would also run it once each day to see how the top 5 plays out based on that day’s standings. My first run at this showed that things rarely play out based on the pre-lottery rankings, as here is how the top 5 played out:
- Winnipeg Jets (13.5% odds)
- Anaheim Ducks (3.2% odds)
- Vancouver Canucks (55.7% odds)
- Chicago Blackhawks (39.7% odds)
- St. Louis Blues (44.6% odds)
Well, a Jets’ win in the lottery is a great way to start off this section, but I am not sure Winnipeg will keep the 2nd best odds at the top selection as the season plays out. Did you know that since December 11th, the True Northers have only lost one game by more than a goal? And that is fairly amazing when you consider the Jets had 12 losses in that span. What I am trying to allude to with this is that our hockey team has been in every one of those 18 games, yet only won 6 of them. That seems an unsustainable string of bad luck to me, so I would expect if Winnipeg keeps playing like they have been, the wins should come a bit more frequently. We will continue to track that in upcoming preview articles, but now we should move onto Monday’s game.
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Tonight’s game between the Winnipeg Jets (19-22-6) and the Chicago Blackhawks (19-22-7) features clubs with near identical records as they fight for the basement of the Central Division with the St. Louis Blues. It might be an emotional affair at the United Center as long-time Hawks’ star Jonathan Toews will make his first appearance there wearing a jersey not belonging to the hometown club. The veteran center suited up for 1,067 games with Chicago, amassing 372 goals and 883 points on route to some championship rings.
Just past the midpoint of the regular season, the Jets have scored the 21st most goals in the NHL (144) while the Blackhawks sit in 25th (133). On the other side of play, Winnipeg has allowed the 14th least goals (148) against while Chicago has let in the 21st fewest (154). Both franchises have had to deal with key injuries this season, as the Hawks have had young stars like Connor Bedard & Frank Nazar out of the line up, while the Jets have seen Connor Hellebuyck, Dylan Samberg, & Cole Perfetti miss significant time.
Today’s game at the Canada Life Centre will kick off at 7:30 pm Central and here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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For two of the worst teams in the NHL this year, the statistics are unsurprisingly similar in most categories. Both Winnipeg & Chicago allow over 3 goals against per game, get outshot by the opposition, and take too many penalties. The Jets do at least score an average of 3 goals per game, but the Blackhawks have witnessed better special teams’ play so far. The goaltending has also been fairly equal, which means that either Spencer Knight is having a great season or Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t been playing up to his normal standards. Possibly a mix of both?
With the offensive chances the True Northers have been creating recently and the Hawks’ tendency to lose the Expected Goals battle (44.73% at 5 on 5 for 32nd in the NHL), I am thinking there is a higher than usual probability of a Winnipeg win in Toews’ return to Illinois. From reports I’ve read, it sounds like Chicago’s promising rookie Frank Nazar is close to a return, but it appears that it won’t come until Thursday, so his team will be without his 21 pts in 33 games. That would have been a big boost for the hometown club, but Connor Bedard has been know to perform well against our club. So maybe my feeling will be wrong?
Since I am doing this write up earlier than normal and the pre-game skate won’t occur until 11:30 am, we will have to rely on PuckPedia’s line up projections at this point:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS LINE UP
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Since I don’t think any of Winnipeg’s injured defensemen are close to returning, it will either be Elias Salomonsson getting a 2nd straight game or fellow rookie Isaak Phillips filling in. The young Swede looked good versus the Leafs, but being paired up often with an underperforming 2nd line led to ugly advanced stats. Yet I do think the coaching staff will at least want to get a look at Phillips while he is with the big club, so I won’t count out him filling in for Salomonsson or Luke Schenn.
Chicago started Arvid Soderblom in their last outing, so I expected that the Jets will have to shoot against Spencer Knight this evening. Despite missing 13 games this year, Connor Bedard has certainly been impressive when he has been on the ice (47 pts in 35 gms). That 1.34 pts/gm rate is even better than fellow Team Canada snub Mark Scheifele’s 1.23 pts/gm.
That should be all the thoughts about tonight’s game currently in my head…..so time to sign off. Need to bundle up to brave the cold (-22C or -7.6F) and shovel again after the plows did my back lane.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Chicago Blackhawks 2 Winnipeg Jets 0
**5th time the Jets have been shut out this season.**
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 3.27 CHI 2.25
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 2.87 CHI 1.53
The Winnipeg Jets pretty much led the Expected Goals battle from start to finish, though the Chicago Blackhawks did come close to tying things up in the early 2nd period. Overall, the True Northers had a healthy advantage in all aspects of the game, but they ultimately couldn’t finish. A flip pass to ease pressure ended with an unlucky bounce and a perfect shot from Jason Dickinson in the situation was the difference in this one.
An outstanding game from the Jonathan Toews’ and Morgan Barron’ units, combined to outshoot the Hawks 17 to 3 in 17:09 of 5 on 5 play. The top unit was good in the xG battle with 63.8%, but they ended up giving up the game winning goal to Chicago. The Adam Lowry trio was the only one on the wrong side of the scoring chances.
Elias Salomonsson catching an illness threw a wrench into Winnipeg’s defensive plans for the game, with Isaak Phillips filling in on his off hand tonight. As a result, only these two duos ended up with more than 7 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time together. Both were on the right side of the xG battle, but Dylan Samberg–Luke Schenn ended up allowing the only even strength goal of the game.
These 4 pairings played between 4 to 5:30 together, but only the Josh Morrissey–Logan Stanley duo saw any success. Isaak Phillips’ 1st game doesn’t look great based on his time with Big Stan (0% xG), but he did get 100% xG’s in his two shifts with Dylan DeMelo.
Guess I didn’t wait long enough for MoneyPuck to make their changes, because I am fairly certain one of Chicago’s goals was into an empty net. That would mean the Connor Hellebuyck should have a +1.25 Goals Saved Above Expected rating tonight. He did his job, but didn’t get any run support from the rest of the Jets.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
As much as part of me was happy that the Winnipeg Jets ended up losing tonight, thus keeping the hopes of a very high draft pick alive. I do feel disappointed for Jonathan Toews though, as he & his line played extremely well on Monday night and it would have been fitting to see him pocket one after that tremendous mid-game celebration the fans in Chicago gave him.
Man, the True Northers need some more goal scorers…..here’s hoping that Ivar Stenberg is wearing a Jets’ jersey next season. No rest for the wicked…..as Winnipeg flies home to Manitoba to face off against the equally bad St. Louis Blues tomorrow.
