I hope everyone had a good time with their family and friends over the past couple of days….but the good times are about to end as our disappointing Winnipeg Jets (15-17-3) will be stepping back on the ice today. The True Northers returned to Manitoba for the holidays after a winless 3 game road trip, which is the largest part of the 4 game skid the hockey team is on.
The post-Christmas standings show today’s opponent at the opposite end of the standings, with the Minnesota Wild (22-10-6) holding the 3rd best record to date compared to our Jets’ 3rd worst stat line. Our southern neighbours recently had a 7 game winning streak ended, so Minny will be looking to get back into the win column after dropping contests to the Colorado Av’s & Preds.
With the Wild’s recent acquisition of star defenseman Quinn Hughes, GM Bill Guerin has signaled Minnesota’s intention to challenge fellow juggernaut Central Division clubs like the Colorado Avalanche & Dallas Stars. The trio of franchises are looking formidable as the NHL schedule nears its midpoint, as their win-loss records are better than the league’s other 29 squads.
Coming into action today, Winnipeg is 17 points back of Minnesota in the standings, though they do have 3 games in hands that could reduce the gap somewhat. Regardless, it will remain a significant obstacle to the Jets coming back in the second half of the year to grab one of the Central’s top 3 spots. So that got me to thinking about how difficult the True Northers’ remaining games will be? Opting to break down to the competition into 3 categories, the top 11 clubs/the next 11 squads/the final 9 teams, I created the graphic below to help us look into that matter:
Winnipeg has 47 contests left in the regular season and their quest for a playoff berth will be challenged by 40% of those games going against the NHL’s top 11 teams. The Jets do play 32% of their matches against the league’s bottom dwellers, but since that is where their record has them sitting that might not be a huge advantage.
The low number of games scheduled in February is due to the Olympic break and the True Northers will play 21 contests before that occurs. This upcoming stretch of games will determine if the Jets can use their games in hand to work their way into a wildcard spot. At this point, the Utah Mammoth hold the 8th spot with 39 points, a 6 pt lead on Winnipeg but with 4 more games in the books making a comeback appear more possible.
It all starts with tonight’s 6 pm game and here is how Winnipeg & Minnesota’s seasons to date have gone, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
*****
The data doesn’t indicate that Minnesota has been that much better than Winnipeg in 2025-26, though they do allow a half a goal against less per game than our team. The special team numbers are similar, as is the offensive production from the division rivals. The Wild have received great goaltending and the Jets typically get that type of performance when Connor Hellebuyck is in between the pipes.
I haven’t seen any reports yet about any line up changes head coach Scott Arniel might make after having a few days to ponder a way to fix what ails his team. So we will have to rely on how PuckPedia is predicting things for the time being.
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
*****
MINNESOTA WILD LINE UP
*****
I’m hungry….so no thought on the line ups for either team. I will note that current Winnipeg Jet & former Minnesota Wild player Mason Shaw is representing Canada at the Spengler Cup during the AHL holiday break. The feisty forward has made his mark already, pocketing a goal for his country in their opening victory. Keep it up Mason!!
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
*****
POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Minnesota Wild 4 Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
*****
Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 2.83 MIN 2.77
Expected Goals (5on5): MIN 2.11 WPG 1.70
Winnipeg’s xG stats looked pretty good in this one, despite the Jets losing that battle at 5 on 5. Scheifele’s line was on the ice for all the action, scoring a pair of goals while allowing one against. Poor Nyquist can’t buy a break with a disallowed goal due to a linemate going offside and then solidly ringing the iron later in the game. That first goal has to come sometime……right?
The data isn’t as nice for the defensemen, as only the Morrissey-DeMelo pairing managed to win the xG battle. Just like it was with the forwards, the #1 pairing was on for 2 Jets’ goals and 1 from the Wild.
Think this might be the third straight game where Hellebuyck has ended up with a negative GSAE rating, though today’s was the only one that passed the 1 goal more expected plateau. I didn’t think he played that poorly, but just one more big save could have helped Winnipeg walk away with a couple of points.
*****
BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
Other than the many mistakes made by the players and the big one by the Winnipeg Jets’ coaching staff (face-off taker for the late 3rd period draw that led to tying goal), our hockey team played decently. They created scoring chances, didn’t get stuck in their end for long shifts constantly, and did an excellent job while short-handed…until that last unfortunate powerplay goal that sent the game to overtime.
Connor was in a bit of a goal scoring slump until he cleared the 300 mark on his career, but that has seemingly ended as the winger added a pair versus the Wild. The top unit is playing very well, but when Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi, Josh Morrissey, & Dylan DeMelo aren’t on the ice…the True Northers aren’t any where close to being a true scoring threat.
But for those of you looking ahead to the NHL draft in June…..Winnipeg is still very much in the hunt for a top 5 selection!! Next up is the Edmonton Oilers on Monday night before the Jets take on the Detroit Red Wings on New Year’s Eve.
