So the landscape of the National Hockey League’s Central Division changed drastically on Friday when the Vancouver Canucks gave up trying to retain star defenseman Quinn Hughes and instead moved him to the Minnesota Wild for a package of young players & picks.
The Winnipeg Jets already had to deal with juggernauts like the Colorado Avalanche & Dallas Stars in a fight for a playoff spot….and now the 3rd place Wild have added a difference maker like Hughes to help them stay in front of the rest of the division. Here is how ESPN has the standings going into the league’s Saturday slate of games:
As you can see, the top two spots in the Central are likely out of reach for Winnipeg if they hope to make a charge in the second half of the season. The Avs have been dominant to start the season, only dropping 2 contests in regulation and walking away with 82% of the available points in their first 31 games. The Stars have only been slightly worse, picking up 73% of the points in their opening 32 matches…and both clubs will probably continue down that path for the rest of the 2025-26 campaign.
The Wild are the only other team in the division to pull somewhat away from the rest of the pack, with their 63% point rate ahead of the Blackhawks (51%), the Mammoths (50%), the Jets (48%), the Blues (47%), & the Predators (47%). By adding a difference maker like Hughes to Minnesota’s roster, the Wild’s management is signaling that they are serious about locking up the final playoff spot in the Central Division. As it stands now, they hold a comfortable lead on the franchises chasing them and they hope the recent transaction will help them create an even bigger buffer.
If successful, the remaining 5 Central teams will have to switch their focus to a wildcard spot, so let us take a look at ESPN’s standings to see what hope each squad has:
Before I get to the wildcard discussion, I figured I would briefly touch on the Pacific Division. The standings aren’t as set in stone at the top of the westernmost franchises, with the Vegas Golden Knights & Anaheim Ducks tied for the top (and a record equal to the 3rd place Central team). The Knights are probably a safe bet to stay up near the top, even though the fact that they’ve needed extra time in 13 out of 30 games (43.3%) might cause some concern. I am not as certain that the youthful Ducks will be able to maintain their strong play throughout the entire 82 regular season games, but the fact that none of the other clubs are really pressing them might help them secure one of the 3 top spots in the Pacific.
The Los Angeles Kings & Edmonton Oilers were the other expected playoff teams in the division and both have hung around that plateau despite inconsistent play plaquing them early on. With the talent on the Oilers, you have to believe they will be able to inch their way back into the top 3….so will it be the young Ducks or the aging Kings that get that final spot?
Moving to the wildcard race, the loser of the above race will most likely have the best chance at grabbing the 7th playoff spot in the West, though a 3 game lead is certainly not insurmountable for the others. The San Jose Sharks are sitting in the final playoff position coming into today’s action, but I feel they are primed for a regression in the 2nd half of the season and could open up that race to pretty much all the chasing clubs. Youthful and full of talent, the Sharks -15 goal differential suggests that losses will start to come more frequently as the league gears up for the playoffs.
While the Vancouver Canucks & Calgary Flames seem unlikely to make a charge, the rest of the West teams could work their way back into contention if they can find a way to turn things around. I don’t have the time to focus on each of the 6 clubs, so instead will look at the three I think have the best chance to challenge SJ for that last wildcard spot. Leading the way are the Utah Mammoth, who currently sit just a half game back of the Sharks for that coveted 8th position. The Mammoth are the only team not in a playoff spot in the West that has a positive goal differential (+4), which suggests that they are playing well offensively & defensively and probability indicates that the club could be the one to usurp San Jose. Up next are the Chicago Blackhawks, who could pass the Sharks if they win the game in hand they have, are another youthful team on the rise. With a -3 goal differential, the Hawks have managed to show their fans that the rebuild might be finally over. However, an injury to Connor Bedard on the last face-off of their most recent game could hurt the team if the young star’s shoulder was significantly damaged by Brayden Schenn. Finally we get to our team, the Winnipeg Jets, whose -4 goal differential gives them the next best shot at making a charge for a wildcard spot. With the return of Connor Hellebuyck coming any day, it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the True Northers move out of the basement dweller area to the NHL’s murky middle. Would it be a good thing for the Jets’ long-term? Probably not….but it is definitely a possibility if the club’s leadership can get the players to buy in like they did last year.
Now that I have taken a look at our team’s outlook for the rest of the season, time to move on today’s contest between the Winnipeg Jets (14-15-1) and the Washington Capitals (18-9-4). These two franchises were battling for the Presidents’ Trophy in 2024-25, playing a pair of exciting games as the True Northers went on to win that race. This year only the Capitals are near the top of the standings and the clubs find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum (4th best vs 4th worst). To add to the Jets’ woes, Washington is in the top 5 in both goals scored & allowed through 31 contests, so December’s tough schedule continues (64.3% vs last yrs playoff teams). Unfortunately for Winnipeg, it gets even worse in January (81.3%) before things ease up after the Olympic break (50%, 37.5%, $ 37.5% in final 3 months).
But that is jumping ahead….lets get back to today’s game (6 pm Central start) by taking a look at Winnipeg & Washington’s seasons by checking out ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The team stats above don’t provide a lot of hope for Jets’ fans…..maybe the Caps’ penalty killers not being great could be the silver lining? Washington tender Logan Thompson is making a strong case to be the starter for Team Canada at the Olympics and will be a tough challenge for Winnipeg’s shooters.
Lets move on & go check out PuckPedia‘s predicted line ups for tonight’s clash, which are based on the club’s last games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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WASHINGTON CAPITALS LINE UP
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The Capitals do have a couple former Jets on their team, but defenseman Declan Chisholm is expected to be a healthy scratch and Pierre Luc Dubois has sustained a long-term injury.
Winnipeg’s coaches have reunited the statistically best forward unit of the 2025-26 campaign….no, not the Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, & Gabriel Vilardi line (50.5% xG & 60% actual G). That trio has played very well in 364 minutes of icetime, but it is the “Triple N” line that tops those stats categories. Vladislav Namestnikov centering Nino Niederreiter & Gustav Nyquist were a unit early in the year and in 47.5 minutes the veterans managed 64.4% of the xG’s, while also scoring 66.7% of the actual goals.
Will have to keep an eye on how the most recent line up plays against a very good hockey team. Can the Jets keep playing fairly well, like they did in losses to the Stars & Bruins? If they do, I certainly hope they can walk away with a couple points to end the 3 game losing streak they are on. While I am leery about Winnipeg working their way back into a playoff spot just to get swept in the 1st round of the post-season…I do want their efforts to be rewarded.
What are your expectations coming into today’s game? Thoughts on the Western Division standings and who may end up playing after the regular season? Let me hear it in the Comment section.
Go Winnipeg!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Winnipeg Jets 5 Washington Capitals 1
I had the feeling that I was somehow sent a year back in time as I watched the Winnipeg Jets utterly dominate one of the best teams in the NHL tonight. And I don’t even have a DeLorean!!
This looked like the Presidents’ Trophy winning club as the relentless pressure on the forecheck & in the neutral zone stifled & confused the Washington Capitals. Some timely scoring in the 1st by unlikely sources like Barron & Stanley helped the True Northers take an early lead and they never looked back. Not that 5 goals from Big Stan is shocking enough…his last two have come from the crease area. Maybe he has been watching another big guy in Vilardi who excels from there? Speaking of Gabe, the winger added a couple more goals versus the Capitals and is up to 16 on the season (a 40+ goal pace). The other Jets’ marker came from the 3rd line again, when veteran Iafallo notched his 6th goal of the campaign. Hellebuyck’s shutout bid in his return from injury was hampered by a questionable late 5 on 3 PP for Washington, but he didn’t look like he was rusty at all as the pucks started to come at him more frequently in the 3rd frame. Winnipeg had 6 players finish them game with 2 points…big games from the 1st & 3rd lines.
As always, the link to the video recap on YouTube is in the article’s main photo. Enjoy watching the goals!!
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 3.82 WSH 2.22
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 2.50 WSH 1.05
The above stats are quite impressive….and even more so when you consider Washington didn’t clear the 1.00 xG mark (all situations) until there was only 5:38 left in the game. Winnipeg shutdown almost everything the opposition tried tonight and spent large chunks of time cycling the offensive zone. Fun to watch.
Despite how MoneyPuck outlined the Jets’ forwards in the chart earlier in the article, the above is the actual order based on icetime. The coaching staff has learned that they need to shelter Toews on the 4th line (6:45) and I think it is paying off with some better play, as Nyquist helped that line pile up 0.262 xG’s. The 2nd line of Perfetti–Namestnikov–Niederreiter (11:22) was the only trio to not win the xG battle…though Fetts set up Names for a prime look that they failed to capitalize on. The Scheifele line (12:09) once again scored a 5 on 5 goal, adding to their yearly total of 28 in 31 games. But it was the Iafallo–Lowry–Barron unit (9:15) that caused the most havoc, getting 2 even strength goals to stretch a one goal lead to three.
Easily the best the defense’s post-game stats have looked this season. The top 2 pairings ate up over 23 minutes of 5 on 5 icetime while helping Winnipeg to 80% of the offensive looks. The Samberg–Pionk duo did the most of the heavy lifting with 13:26, while Morrissey–DeMelo were deployed for 9:49, and the 3rd pairing of Stanley & Schenn together for 7:40. Amazingly, all three units were on for a Jets’ goal and none of them allowed any against. A rare sight this season where all 3 duos are above 50% xG’s.
Hellebuyck was eased back into things as the True Northers held the Capitals to just 3 shots in the opening period. His workload increased gradually throughout the game and the star tender did not look like he was rushed back to action too soon. His positioning appeared to be strong and only a perfect shot on a 2 man advantage was able to get by Bucky.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
Well, that was quite the surprise. Very much enjoyed this Hockey Night in Canada game day, as it was night and day from some of the contests we’ve seen recently. To be honest, the Winnipeg Jets have been taking some steps in recent games, at least creating more offense. What came out of the blue was the defensive effort this evening. While I say defense, a lot of this starts in other ends of the hockey rink. The tenacious forecheck & offensive zone cycles Winnipeg was able to deploy against Washington results in the defenders being tired when they finally get the puck. So instead of trying for more offense, they are happy to clear their end & get to the bench….allowing the Jets to reload for another rush up the ice. Then the tight gaps in the neutral zone let the hometown team stop rushes before they even got going. Dump ins were dealt with and failed zone exits were few & far between. Even though MoneyPuck says this wasn’t the best our team did this year in terms of limiting expected goals against (3rd), it was by far their best performance at 5 on 5.
I just heard Friedman say on HNIC that all that ailed the Winnipeg Jets is cured. I wouldn’t go that far, but tonight was quite the turn around. Will have to wait and see how the team plays versus the Ottawa Senators on Monday before trying to decide exactly what this roster is.
Also, kudos to Josh Morrissey for picking up his 400th NHL point and if you would like to check out Nino Niederreiter’s ceremony honouring him for becoming the first Swiss born NHLer to play in 1,000 games…try the link below:
