The Winnipeg Jets have picked up points in 2 straight contests, which is something the NHL franchise hasn’t done since mid-November. With a 4-5-1 record over their last 10 games, the True Northers have been struggling with consistency and that has head coach Scott Arniel often shuffling the forwards lines in search of offense. Tonight’s opponent for Winnipeg has also been having difficulties as of late, with the Edmonton Oilers sporting the same 4-5-1 record in the past 10…but scoring goals is certainly not their issue.
The Oilers (12-11-5) are sitting in 4th in the Pacific Division, but are tied for the 11th worst record in the NHL. The northern Albertans are very capable at lighting red lamps, with the 8th most goals in the league (90 goals), but the problems come at the other end of the ice where Edmonton allowed 100 goals against (tied for 2nd most).
The Jets (14-12-1) also are tied for the 11th worst record in the league, though our club will be in the 6th in the Central Division when they enter action tonight. The differences continue as Winnipeg’s offense and defense put them in ties for the 13th least goals scored and allowed (83 GF/79 GA).
Both squads are coming into tonight’s 9 pm Central start at the Rogers Place off big wins….with Eric Comrie helping the Jets glide to a 4-1 victory over the Buffalo Sabres and the Oilers flying high after a 9-4 throttling of the Seattle Kraken.
Lets jump to a look at Winnipeg & Edmonton’s seasons by checking out ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The graphics above tell us that Winnipeg’s main advantage is on the defensive & goaltending side of things, though at this point I have yet to receive confirmation on whether rookie Thomas Milic will get the start in net in the back-to-back situation. Edmonton’s offense is great in all situations, at even strength & with a man advantage, but maybe a bit surprising to see they also have a good penalty kill.
The True Northers got into a bit of a run & gun game against the Sabres, which is not something I would recommend tonight if they want to walk out victorious. They should also mind the many turnovers they gave up in the defensive & neutral zones…cause the Oil won’t struggle to make Winnipeg pay like Buffalo did last night.
The Jets-Oilers contest will feature some of the NHL’s best scorers, as Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (tied for 2nd with 40 pts) & Leon Draisaitl (tied for 8th with 35) will go up against Mark Scheifele (tied for 8th with 35) & Kyle Connor (tied for 11th with 34).
Haven’t seen any update on the line up situation for Winnipeg, so we don’t know the starting goaltender or whether the mid-game move to put Adam Lowry in the middle of Jonathan Toews & Cole Perfetti will carry over. For now, we will go with PuckPedia‘s predicted line ups for tonight’s clash, which are based on the club’s last games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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EDMONTON OILERS LINE UP
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I was going to post something showing the differences between the Oilers & Jets’ forward lines scoring….but I didn’t want to depress anyone on this frigid cold Saturday in the Peg. We all know that secondary scoring is a problem and are anxiously awaiting goals from the True North middle six.
That is about all that I got this afternoon….but despite seeing some positive signs last night versus the Sabres, there is still much work to do to tighten up the Jets’ play. Quicker decision making is needed, but that isn’t just a puck carrier issue because often that delay in moving the puck up the ice is because the other players haven’t worked hard enough to make themselves available for the break out pass.
The rest of December offers our team very little reprieve, as the schedule will continue to throw quality opposition like the Dallas Stars, Washington Capitals, & Colorado Avalanche. That means every point matters….so here’s hoping to see a full effort by the True Northers tonight. And if at all possible, a goal by one of the many snake bitten forwards would be much appreciated.
Double header of hockey for me today!! The Manitoba Moose will play the Iowa Wild at 6 pm Central, which I am very much looking forward to because the Minnesota Wild’s AHL affiliate has scored the least amount of goals in the minors while also allowing 7th most against. Hopefully the kids can pad their point columns in the two game weekend series. Stay warm everyone!!
Go Winnipeg!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Edmonton Oilers 6 Winnipeg Jets 2
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): EDM 4.58 WPG 1.85
Expected Goals (5on5): EDM 4.07 WPG 1.66
Yet another game where coach Arniel tried a bunch of forward combinations. Unfortunately only 2 of them managed to win the expected goals battle, with the Iafallo-Scheifele-Connor doing well (81.6%) in 6 minutes of playing time and Perfetti-Lowry-Toews (72.3%) in 4 & a half minutes. The goals against were numerous at 5 on 5 vs Edmonton, with only the first, fourth, & sixth lines above not allowing them to occur. Winnipeg pocketed 2 of their own, as the original 1st & 4th lines managed to score in the 3rd period when the game was already out of reach.
Just so the defensemen didn’t feel left out of the line blender routine, the Jets’ coaching staff also iced 7 combinations with over 3:41 of playing time at even strength. The duos above only allowed 3 of the goals against, with the Morrissey-DeMelo pairing letting 2 get by them and Samberg-Pionk allowing the other one. Once again the value of Sammy on the backend is apparent in the numbers, with the American defender being on the only 2 duos with positive xG ratings.
Obviously the goalie information isn’t great, but that is what happens when the team in front of them doesn’t show up to play and not really a knock on the masked men. I also found the above chart showed just how badly Winnipeg played in the 1st period, since Comrie faced as many dangerous scoring chances as Milic had to face as the Oilers eased up in the final two frames.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
This one was ugly and I really could only stomach to watch the 1st period…..so I won’t have anything to say about how the Jets-Oilers match played out. In fact, I am kind of at a loss for words at this point. Obviously I expected a downturn from last season’s performance, but stupidly believed that any drop should be relatively minor. Man, I whiffed on that prediction.
Like many of the comments from Winnipeg fans on this site have pointed out, it is baffling why the team is making mistake after mistake this year. The defensive system is exactly the same as it was when they were one of the NHL’s elite defensive squads, yet now a club that has 85% of the same players is flirting with being one of the worst. I know injuries have played their role in things…but with only Connor Hellebuyck missing at this point, that doesn’t explain why the Jets are constantly losing the xG battle at 5 on 5.
The data can explain that easily too, since the massive number of turnovers have resulted in failed defensive end exits or changes in possession in the neutral zone. These are resulting in the opposition getting dangerous odd man rushes that all too often end up with the puck in the back of Winnipeg’s net.
At this point of the season, I have switched to keeping an eye on GM Kevin Cheveldayoff. Since the True North organization isn’t providing any entertainment on the ice in 2025-26, my attention will be focused on waiting to see if Chevy panics and makes an ill-advised move or two in what will likely be a vain attempt to save the season. I see fellow Jets’ fans on PuckPedia suggesting trades to pick up players like Nazim Kadri or Brayden Schenn and shake my head. Certainly those forwards are better than what Winnipeg can deploy right now, but they are also old…something this club doesn’t need more of. On top of that, you would have to empty out good pieces from the True Northers’ already weak prospect pool and/or draft picks to obtain them. If the world was going to end soon, that might be a good plan….but since it probably isn’t, I am not sure the club should mortgage the future on yet another mid-season trade that most likely won’t move the needle enough to make them true Cup contenders.
The other popular call from Jets’ fans online I have seen is for Winnipeg to go with a youth movement, bring up players like Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, & Brayden Yager to insert some speed & enthusiasm into the line up. The main argument seems to be that it can’t make the Jets play worse than they already are….and that is hard to argue with. Yet, I still feel a lot of trepidation about going that route for some reason. Possibly I am concerned that the prospects’ AHL production isn’t suggesting that any of these forwards are ready to make the big step up to the NHL. Flirting with a point per game pace in the minors is kind of the go-to sign that a young guy is ready for the big leagues, which none of these players are currently hitting. Maybe I am worried about expectations as well, because in my eyes all the high end Jets’ prospects are more complimentary pieces and might not bring the impact people will expect. There is no doubt that Lambo & Chibby have higher end offensive abilities, which could help Winnipeg find some more goals. Can they play as well defensively as some of the veterans currently in the NHL line up? Well, that is up for debate, but since the Jets aren’t playing defense that well right now…it shouldn’t be a roadblock to promotion. Yager is a bit different, since from what I’ve seen he is a very responsible 2 way player. Yet I still have concerns about what his offensive impact will be at the NHL level and think he may end up being a good 3rd line center instead of the much coveted 2nd line role us fans hope he can fill. Lately the kid has shown a bit more offense with the Moose, so there is still a shot that part of the game will grow as he becomes more comfortable in the system he had to learn in his rookie season.
I started this section off with this quote “In fact, I am kind of at a loss for words at this point.“. Looks like that wasn’t really correct. 🙂 Since I’ve voiced my thoughts/concerns on what the Winnipeg Jets should do moving forward….lets hear your thoughts in the Comment section.
