The Winnipeg Jets (12-10-0) will continue their road trip as they search for a way to end a 3 game losing streak without the assistance of star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. Friday’s opposition has had an excellent start to the NHL’s 2025-26 campaign, as the Carolina Hurricanes (14-7-2) are tied for the 4th best record in the league…yet they will be entering action today on a 2 game skid of their own.
One random observation before I dig into the Jets-Canes clash, I do find it interesting that in a year when the NHL has seen record amounts of games needing extra playing time to determine a winner, our Winnipeg hockey club has only gone to overtime/shootout twice so far. Even though the True Northers have won both of those, the lack of “loser points” in their losses to date might find more importance as the playoff race gets nearer to the finish line.
The Hurricanes squeezed out a 4-3 win over the Jets about a week ago in Manitoba, now it will be our squad’s chance to return the favour in front of the fans at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh. Both clubs have had scoring issues as of late, with Winnipeg only pocketing 6 goals in their last 3 contests, while Carolina has been limited to 3 red lights lit in their past 2 losses.
The Hurricanes have played very well this season, especially at 5 on 5 where they are ranked 4th in Actual Goal % (55.67) and 2nd in Expected Goal % (56.86). Which means that they are pretty much scoring the number of goals they are expected to get based on the level of their play. The Jets on the other hand, haven’t been as successful at even strength, in a tie for 17th in Actual Goal % (50) and even worse in Expected Goals % as they sit in 27th (46.76).
Let’s continue our look at Winnipeg & Carolina by checking out ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers for tonight’s late night game (yet another 9:00 pm Central start):
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The Hurricanes have been the better team at creating offense this year (goals/shots) and their tenacious style of play has limited the clubs facing them to around 25 shots per game. If there was a weakness for the North Carolina franchise, it may be in the special teams’ performance, where the PKers are slightly below average and the PP has been underwhelming.
The Jets have received better than expected outcomes from their special teams, however their goal scoring at even strength has seen them only break even. That is mainly because the Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, & Gabriel Vilardi trio are doing most of the heavy lifting.
That reminded me of the Norm MacDonald joke about the short form for the word identification, to paraphrase…..okay, the “I” stands for “I” and the “D” means “Dentification”…..seems like the “D” is doing the heavy lifting on that one. Definitely not the same without Norm’s delivery, but still funny.
Beside Bucky being out for Winnipeg, the team will also be without a pair of defensemen in 2nd pairing Neal Pionk and depth defender Haydn Fleury. Carolina will for sure be without center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but may also be missing forward Jordan Staal & tender Pyotr Kochetkov, who are listed day-to-day.
Here is how PuckPedia is currently predicting the lines to look like when play gets underway at 4 pm Central:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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CAROLINA HURRICANES LINE UP
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Looking like rookie goalie Thomas Milic will be joining fellow rookie Elias Salomonsson in the starting line up today. The Manitoba Moose tender has put in a strong performance to begin the season, putting up a 2.14 Goals Against Average & .921 Save Percentage in 9 starts with the AHL franchise. The undersized & acrobatic masked man will be put to the test facing a strong offensive club like the Hurricanes.
Winnipeg’s practice yesterday was optional, so anything could happen with the forward & defensive units….but it might not be a bad thing for coach Scott Arniel to start letting the bottom 3 units gain some familiarity with each other. The blender can cause confusion just as often as it creates more offense.
That is all I have time for this morning….hope everyone has a good day & see you back here for puck drop (or whenever you get home from work).
Go Winnipeg!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Carolina Hurricanes 5 Winnipeg Jets 1
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): CAR 3.41 WPG 1.42
Expected Goals (5on5): CAR 2.34 WPG 1.21
6 different forward lines received over 3 minutes of 5 on 5 icetime versus the Hurricanes…and only one of them ended up winning the xG or shooting battle (Perfetti-Toews-Namestnikov). That pretty much tells the story of Winnipeg’s game today. Three of the top 4 units in icetime ended up allowing a goal against, with only the Pearson-Namestnikov-Perfetti line keeping Carolina off the scoresheet. Unfortunately Scheifele’s strong effort tonight was not reflected in the stats above, but the struggles of the Lowry trio has to be very concerning for a club that needs someone other than the top line to be able to play against the opposition’s best.
4 different Jets’ d-pairings saw over 6 minutes of 5 on 5 icetime, with the Stanley-Miller combination leading the way with 13 minutes. All three of the top units ended up allowing a goal against and the only Winnipeg goal scored came during a rare Morrissey-Samberg shift, the only time the duo was on the ice together at even strength. I thought Salomonsson played fairly well, despite the numbers above, and he ended up with a team-lead 5 blocks against the Canes. Nice to see that the coaches trusted the rookie enough to deploy him on the penalty kill, where he had the second most minutes for the Jets.
Other than that final goal against in “it doesn’t matter time”, Milic was very impressive in his NHL debut. The young tender kept his club in the game for almost 52 minutes, but eventually the uninspired play from a lot of his teammates ended up costing him a shot at a win.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
I haven’t really had time to pour over the numbers yet, but it was pretty clear to my old eyes that the Winnipeg Jets were out skated in this one. Strong play from young Thomas Milic in net, a penalty kill that got the True Northers through a bunch of short-handed situations, and some inspired play by Mark Scheifele will likely be the only really positive signs from today’s performance.
Wonder if someone can pull aside the Winnipeg Jets’ players and remind most of them that they had their most successful offensive seasons of their careers last year….when the team committed to playing a responsible 200 foot game. It will benefit all of them if they realize that their stats and future contracts will go up if everyone starts pulling in the same direction. The injuries have caused havoc, but this next month without Connor Hellebuyck is going to be the “make it or break it” point of the Jets’ 2025-26 campaign. Right now, they aren’t giving us fans a lot of reason for hope…..but there will be no rest, as Winnipeg will be travelling to Tennessee to take on the Predators tomorrow.
