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Breaking Down the Winnipeg Jets Season

Oct 30, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Winnipeg Jets defenseman Neal Pink (4) celebrates his goal during the third period against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-Imagn Images

Coming off their epic heavyweight clash against the Washington Capitals, our Winnipeg Jets find themselves sitting atop the National Hockey League with an impressive 37-14-3 record. To those in the media that often forget the province of Manitoba exists, the franchise’s success in the 2024-25 campaign has likely raised some eyebrows.

But it really shouldn’t….because since the start of last season, no team in the entire NHL has won more regular season games than our Winnipeg Jets. With a 89-38-9 record over the last 136 contests, the True Northers are slightly ahead of their division rivals, the Dallas Stars (85-38-10), to be the league’s best team over the past year and a half. If the Jets can keep up the same pace over the remaining 28 games, Winnipeg will end up with 226 regular season points over the past two campaigns.

Okay, so we can all agree that the Winnipeg Jets are doing pretty well right now, right? Well, you would think that would be the case….but there are still quite a few hockey fans who believe that our team is still riding their historic 15-1-0 start to the season and are much worse than the record indicates. Since then, comments like “The Jets have been slightly better than average since that hot start” are not uncommon in hockey forums.

Now, I don’t doubt that the knowledgeable Arctic Ice Hockey fans know better and would be tempted to respond with something like “Winnipeg has been a top 5 team in the most important categories since December 4th“. Some of the ultra confident fans may even go as far to imply that the Jets are playing their best hockey of the season right now and the team was only finding it’s legs during that historic start. But in case they won’t just take our words as gospel, I thought I would do a deep dive into how the Manitoba franchise has performed over the 54 games this season (65% of the season) to see if I can bring them aboard to our way of thinking.

To do that, I opted to divide our review into three equal sections (18 game) in order to compare how the Winnipeg Jets have done in a multitude of categories like expected goals, quality of opposition, and other statistical data. Before we get into the numbers, I have briefly broken down how the Winnipeg Jets did in each of those sections below:

First 18 Games (Oct 9th to Nov 16th)

The Jets rocketed out of the gates when the regular season got underway, with 7 & 8 game winning streaks helping them to a record setting 15-1-0 start. The opening 18 games didn’t end great though, as Winnipeg got embarrassed during a road trip to Florida that saw them get out-scored 9-1 in losses to the Lightning & Panthers. In the end, the True Northers completed this phase with a 15-3-0 record. The opening 18 also included 3 of Connor Hellebuyck’s 6 shutouts on the season.

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Middle 18 Games (Nov 19th to Dec 23rd)

Winnipeg entered this portion of the regular season on a two game losing streak, but immediately righted the ship with a couple victories. The next game saw Dylan Samberg sustain an injury when blocking a shot and that led to the Jets’ worst stretch of the season (4-6-1 including a season-long 4 game skid). Fortunately the True Northers were able to bounce back with a 3-1-0 run to end with a 10-7-1 record in the Middle section. The final two contests saw our squad shut out the Minnesota Wild 5-0 and then I’m sure all of us fondly remember the 5-2 dismantling of the Leafs in Toronto on Dec 23rd.

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Final 18 Games (Dec 28th to Feb 1st)

Our final grouping began on a good note with a couple of home wins, but then the Jets hit a bit of a rough patch with a 1-2-2 record over the next five. Fortunately, Samberg returned from his injury in that last loss on Jan 10th (2-1 OTL to LA) and his steady play has helped Winnipeg get back to winning hockey games. On January 20th, the club lost Adam Lowry in a game against the Utah HC in what was the True Northers most embarrassing defeat of this section. Not letting the loss of their captain get to them for long, the Jets then ripped off 6 straight victories to finish this last stretch with a 12-4-2 record.

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The first graphic I created attempts to tell the tale of how the Winnipeg Jets have done against the various levels of competition the NHL has to offer. Using today’s standings as a starting point, the opposition has been broken down into the league’s top 10 teams, the middle 12 franchises, and the bottom 10 squads. It isn’t a perfect breakdown, since there are still quality teams like the Colorado Avalanche & the Los Angeles Kings in the middle section, but it’s what we are going with.

When you look at the overall data on the chart below, it probably isn’t that surprising to see the Jets’ rate of success drops as the level of competition rises. Against the bottom 10 squads Winnipeg has won 76.3% of the 19 contests, dropping slightly to 70.5% against the middle 12 franchises (22 gms), and still a very good 65.4% against the NHL’s top 10 teams (13 gms). That success against the league’s elite will be tested over the last 28 regular season games though, as 10 of those contests will be against current top 10 franchises. Fortunately 11 matches will be versus the NHL’s bottom feeders, so the Jets will just have 7 games against the mucky middle to deal with after that.

Focusing on our 18 game sections, the absence of Dylan Samberg’s solid defensive play was evident in the Jets’ struggles during the middle matches, where they won only 58.3% of their games. With winning percentages better than 70% in the other two stretches, Winnipeg has been dominant over a couple hot streaks in 24-25. Check out the numbers yourself to see what jumps out to you…

I also decided to look at a few categories to see how the Winnipeg Jets have performed over their first 54 contests. Creating a graphic using a game-by-game basis, I have determined if the Jets won, lost, or tied their opposition in Expected Goals Differential (xG Diff), Penalty Minute Differential (PIM Diff), and Face-Off Percentage (F/Off %) over our three sections.

The xG Differential statistic has it’s limitations, but overall it is trying to tell us whether a team deserved to score more goals than the opposition. However, it often fails to paint a correct picture in games where the eventual winning team breaks out to a multiple goal lead early in the contest. To illustrate this using the Jets, in their first 18 games the xG Diff stat tells us that Winnipeg lost or tied that battle on 8 occasions. However, when you dig a bit deeper, you discover that our squad had big leads early on in 4 of those contests and the inevitable letting up on the gas allows the “losers” to create more offense. Therefore, in that first 18 game section the True Northers were really only out-played on four occasions (all actual losses, except for a 1-0 shutout of the Avs). That limitation aside, the xG records are close to mirroring the franchise’s actual win-loss success, for the most part. What caught me most about all the xG data is that the numbers are suggesting that Winnipeg might just being playing their best hockey of the season right now. A very impressive 15-3-0 record in the expected goals battle (5 on 5) in their last 18 games is a great sign that the Jets may be able to duplicate this success in the playoffs. That being said, Winnipeg has been fortunate enough to only play 1 top 10 team over that span, so the final stretch of the regular season will be telling with 35% of the remaining games against elite franchises.

I opted to throw in a category that included penalty minutes, since it seemed that the deadly Winnipeg Jets’ powerplay has seen it’s chances limited as the season progresses. Focusing on PIM Differential to tell us which squad received more powerplay time, we get confirmation of that sensation as the most recent 18 game span saw the True Northers short-handed more often than their opponents 50% of the time. While you might be wanting to jump up and yell “Collusion!!“, a large part of that is likely due to the NHL’s policy of using the officials for game management purposes. While I didn’t do a full review of all the league’s teams, I did find enough data to support that more often than not the winning team ends up with more penalties than the losing squad does. Especially when the victorious squad jumps out to an early lead…and this partially explains Winnipeg’s 6-9-3 record in the PIM category during their latest hot streak (12-4-2 actual record).

I included one final category because it is often said that the Jets are bad at the face-off dot due to the lack of a true 2nd line center. Overall the data implies that Winnipeg is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to winning draws with a 26-26-2 record. The odd thing that jumped out to me in this area is the fact that the Jets have been doing pretty good at the dot in their last 18 matches, despite captain Adam Lowry missing six of those games. Alright, I have pointed out some things that interested me, time for you to pour over the data to see what you find notable.

When I try to digest all that data to come up with a final conclusion, I am encouraged by the play of the Winnipeg Jets this season and am starting to hope that they will be able to make some noise in the playoffs. In particular, the team’s expected goal numbers at 5 on 5 are very nice to see. Not only have they won the xG battle in 32 of their 54 matches, Winnipeg is also sitting in 8th in the NHL for best expected goal percentage (52.12%). That is a great omen for possible playoff success.

While a seat to the post-season is not in doubt, the remainder of the regular season is still very important to the Jets. On one hand, I firmly believe that locking up the top spot of the Western Conference will give our team the best chance to start the playoffs with an opening series win. To my eyes, the West has 4 teams that you could consider elite, the Edmonton Oilers, the Dallas Stars, the Vegas Golden Knights, and when healthy, the Colorado Avalanche. Then there are two pretty good teams in the Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild, whom don’t exactly scare me but still would be best for Winnipeg to avoid in the first round. That leaves the final wildcard spot to fill, currently held by the “re-tooling” Calgary Flames but might still be claimed by a multitude of middling franchises. So locking up the top spot might just be key…probably not something those in the “Hellebuyck needs his rest” camp wants to hear.

On the other hand, the approach of the season’s end always brings up the question of whether Kevin Cheveldayoff will make any moves to try to improve his squad. With only 2 Jets’ games until the 4 Nations Face-Off and 10 games until the March 8th trade deadline, those decisions are coming to the forefront as other NHL GM’s have already started to alter their rosters. To be honest, I am still completely on the fence on what should be Winnipeg’s plan, as my mind continuously hops to multiple scenarios. While I don’t really have the space to really go through all my muddled thoughts on the subject, I figured I might as well let you in on my concerns.

The first concern involves trying to jam a square peg into a round hole and ultimately leads to my second worry. From what I can see, there aren’t a huge number of options available to fill what are Winnipeg’s most glaring holes (2C/1 or 2RD). With the Flames still in contention and hoping to re-sign the 29 year old, Rasmus Andersson won’t be available to fill the Christmas wishes of many a Jet fan. When it comes to centers, it has always been difficult for Winnipeg to attract that second top-six pivot and the only “big name” option that I could possibly see is a rental of the Islanders’ Brock Nelson (and the Isles have worked their way back into wildcard contention, so is he even available). Chevy can’t risk the future assets required to get Elias Pettersson out of Vancouver, who probably is staying in BC now that his version of Blake Wheeler has been exiled to the Big Apple (JT Miller). I wonder if it is common for power forwards to be grumpy Gus’s?

So if an elite addition is probably out of the question, should our franchise really spend a worthwhile asset (good prospect/1st or 2nd round picks) to get someone? Hey, I am all for it if the team can find a good fit on and off the ice, though I would prefer they did it for players with term or team control going forward. But I really don’t want them to force things. I know it is hindsight because I was really high on the acquisition of Sean Monahan last year, but in the end I think the disruption caused by him and other late additions like Tyler Toffoli (wasn’t a fan of this move) and Colin Miller (was meh, but he is good despite the coaching staff not trusting him) might have ended up hurting chemistry. After all, 23 to 25 players are going through the grind of a regular season to ensure Winnipeg reaches their peak performance only for some new player to come in and steal one or two of their spots. Can’t be easy for those on the cut line, like young Cole Perfetti was last season. That being said, I am still hoping to look into what the past Stanley Cup champions have done at the deadline to see if making moves is really key to playoff success. Until I get around to that, will just have to go on my hunch that tells me that most of the moves don’t pay off.

Well, I think I have finally run out of gas, so it is time to wrap up this article. I know a lot of us our still scarred from last season’s disastrous playoff performance…has the Jets’ play this season made you feel any better about their chances in 2024-25?

Would love to hear your thoughts about any of the stats, the Winnipeg Jets’ play in general, and whether you think the GM should spend assets to improve their shot at lifting a Cup? Might be good to also indicate if you have any limits to what could be spent…are there any untouchable prospects? Would you be willing to trade some or all of the Jets’ top young guns? How about draft picks…should the upcoming 1st be in play? For a rental or just part of a trade with longer benefits for Winnipeg?

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