Thanks to all those who provided suggestions for the article’s headline…appreciate the willingness to collaborate.
Despite a very hectic work week, I found myself with the energy to do my first dive into the Winnipeg Jets’ stats this season. So I spent Friday evening collecting a bunch of data and began to review it to see what I could find. Even though I know the sample size is very small at this point of the campaign, I figured I would see if I could note any differences between the 23-24 & 24-25 versions of the Jets.
In 2024-25, the True North franchise has opened up the season with 7 straight wins and that contrasts to last year’s squad who were sitting with a 4-3-0 record through the same number of games in 2023-24. We all are aware that Winnipeg were “regular season warriors” last year as they allowed the least amount of goals against and finished with the National Hockey League’s 4th best record, only to have a disappointing playoff see them exit in the first round. So, it that the fate of this year’s squad too?
Besides Scott Arniel taking over the bench from Rick Bowness, the Jets didn’t see significant changes to their roster. Full-timers like Brenden Dillon, Nate Schmidt, & Laurent Brossoit departed along with part-timers like Sean Monahan & Tyler Toffoli. Winnipeg filled the empty slots with internal options such as Rasmus Kupari, Logan Stanley & Ville Heinola, as well as bringing in Colin Miller & Eric Comrie.
Those changes resulted in many “hockey experts” picking the Winnipeg Jets as one of last year’s playoff teams expected to miss the post-season this year. Remember that recent NHL history suggests only 3 or 4 of the 23-24 playoff franchises will miss out, so those in the know didn’t think much of our Jets.
Early results suggest that the experts might have missed the mark on the team from the Peg, but do the statistics indicate that our club will be able to sustain their early success? Well, when comparing last year’s stats to this year’s, lets take a look at some of the key markers to see what they tell us.
The first grouping we are digging into includes some important offensive statistics, such as expected goals, actual goals, shooting percentage, and scoring chances. Here is what the Winnipeg Jets’ offense has done over the past two campaigns:
The 23-24 Jets finished with 259 goals last season which was good for 15th in the NHL. The stats above support that they were a middle-of-the-pack kind of offense last year, as the majority of the rankings fell within the 13th to 19th range.
When comparing the two campaigns, Winnipeg is creating more expected goals (xG) in all situations and that has them in the NHL’s top 10. However, when you note the 5 on 5 offensive chance production, you will realize that a powerplay running way hotter than expected is responsible for that improvement (as well as the chances created in 3 OT wins and with their own net empty & a 6 on 5 player advantage).
Once again the Jets are at the top of the league for actual goal percentage, with both seasons ranking in the top 5 of the NHL. Having an elite goaltender like Connor Hellebuyck plays a big part in that success, but the defensive systems created by Bowness/Arniel can claim some of the props. I don’t see any reason for Winnipeg to finish outside of the top 10 this season, but scoring 70.45% of the goals in all situations is very much unsustainable over a full 82 game campaign.
There has been a slight decrease in scoring chances created from the past season, but the Jets are still in the middle of the NHL pack range. Unsurprisingly, the high danger chances have also dropped off and sit in the bottom 3rd of the league. A concerning aspect of this is Winnipeg hasn’t been as good at creating scoring chances at even strength in 2024-25….and that was a key strength for last season’s success.
The shooting percentages show that our Jets are likely scoring at a higher pace on the powerplay than they can sustain in the long-term, as that 13.9% success rate (4th in NHL) will likely start dropping to bring it closer to the team’s 2023-24 ratio. At even strength, there hasn’t been much of a change despite Winnipeg getting less scoring opportunities and the franchise still is in the middling range.
When it comes to the offensive stats in general, overall the numbers are close enough to suggest that the Winnipeg Jets will be middle of the pack offensive team once again this year. If the True North franchise can limit goals against like they have in the past, while continuing to get above average goalie play, then there is no reason they can’t once again qualify for the playoffs in 2024-25. That being said, there are concerning notes as well, with unsustainable actual goal & shooting percentages early in the campaign.
Up next, lets take a peek at the goaltending & defensive stats from the two seasons with a look at the save, high danger save, and defensive zone turn over percentages. That final one tells you what percentage of a franchise’s turnovers came in their own end. Review the numbers below:
Last year Winnipeg was stellar in two of the above categories, but absolutely horrendous in the third. While this season’s rankings are similar, there have been some interesting movement in the actual numbers.
First of all, so far the Connor Hellebuyck/Eric Comrie duo is equaling or bettering what Connor Hellebuyck/Laurent Brossoit did between the pipes in 2023-24. Despite the rankings, this year’s Jets have had better save percentages in all categories, including impressive numbers on high danger opportunities. Obviously Comrie has only had one start, so his numbers could change dramatically after his next game, but my biggest concern is that high danger save percentage dropping. While I can’t confirm statistically at this time, I feel Winnipeg has been giving up more low slot opportunities when compared to last season and if those goals start to go in…losses could also pile up. Based on how the Jets have played the Bowness-Arniel system over the past 89 regular season contests, I still expect our squad to be near the top of NHL in this category when the 2024-25 campaign is completed.
The final stat numbers seem pretty insane for a 23-24 team that finished with the least number of goals against in the NHL, but still gave up over 70% of their turnovers in the defensive zone. The good news is that Winnipeg has improved percentage-wise this season, but the bad is that they still sit among the NHL’s worst at giving up the puck in their own end.
Overall, I interpret the numbers to suggest a slight regression when it comes to keeping pucks out of the Jets’ net. However, I don’t think the drop will be that significant and hopefully the less d-zone turnovers trend will continue and make up for any decrease.
Our final group of stats look at what percentage of the penalties the Winnipeg Jets took, as well as how our centers have done at the face-off dot.
The Jets were good at avoiding the sin box last season, while also playing well enough to get their opponents to spend more time there. That trend has continued under Arniel’s leadership, with the officials sending the other team to the penalty box at an even higher rate.
While Winnipeg didn’t bring in any new centers over the summer and even lost a good face-off guy like Sean Monahan, the Jets have vastly improved their work at the dot (moving from 24th to 9th in the NHL). Rasmus Kupari is partially responsible for this improvement, as the 4th line pivot leads Winnipeg with a 54.9% rating. However, all four of the team’s centers are above 50% at this point….so that is a significant change in the 2024-25’s small sample size. Will they be able to keep it up as the competition ramps up? That is the question.
Overall, this year’s version of the Winnipeg Jets is very similar to the one Rick Bowness led. With new special teams coaches coming aboard, the special teams have seen improvements and helped the Jets to a better than expected start to the campaign. While I still doubt that Winnipeg has what it takes to remain a top 5 team in the NHL for the entire season, I think their excellent start has almost assured that they will qualify for the post-season. Whether they can avoid the wild card race completely remains to be seen and we will probably get a better idea by re-doing this review after 40 games or so.
What did you all take from the above stats? Anything eye-poppingly unexpected from your eye-tests? Let me hear any thoughts in the comment section below…time to get back to the Manitoba Moose game.
