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Understanding Advanced Stats

How realistic is a consistent forty goal scorer?

You may be surprised that it's not very realistic at all.

An introduction to some statistical work

Not only are the Jets a new and young team, but so is the AIH community. Here are some of the research and advances that have come from hockey's statistical blog community over the past few years.

Analysis: Plus/Minus Sucks

Demonstrating through use cases why plus/minus is the worst statistic in hockey, and maybe pro sports.

Further to The Big Mistake

Where human intuition and the eye test could be failing you.

Limits of Corsi: What can and can't it do?

A refresher on the usage of Corsi discussing where it works and where it doesn't.

Common Misconceptions on #FancyStats

An attempt to bring understanding of hockey analytical theories so that anyone can come to their own informed opinion.

Percentages and Probabilities: Does luck exist?

In sport, it's often said you have to be lucky to be good. But how often does luck actually factor into sport? We use statistics to explain.

Comparing the 2013 Jets to past Stanley Cup champs

How do the 2012-13 Winnipeg Jets stack up against the last six Stanley Cup Champions?

Toronto Maple Leafs hitting to win it

The Toronto Maple Leafs made the playoffs despite being massively outshot. Leafs coach Randy Carlyle would have us believe that a lot of hitting made up for poor puck possession. They're winning, so he must be right. Right?

Zone Shift Masters

A deeper look at zone starts.

Reviewing NHL talent disparities

In case you weren't aware, fourth line players don't possess the same scoring touch as their first line counterparts.

PDO streaks and season-long performance spreads

Explaining how PDO usually has a way of evening itself out.

PDO and regression to the mean.

Explaining why you should ignore player shooting percentages.

How useful is raw +/-?

You can't put too much stock in to plus-minus, here's why:

PDO: The one advanced stat you need to understand

Why PDO is the most vital advanced stat you can utilize.

The top PDO dynasties of all-time

Which NHL teams have had the best PDO over the last four decades?

Do goalies need to face shots to stop shots?

Hockey announcers say goaltenders need to face frequent shots in order to stay sharp during a game. Do the numbers back this up?

The homer referee bias

Which NHL referees exhibit the strongest bias towards the home team?

Advanced Metric FAQ: Wins above replacement

How many wins are individual hockey players worth to their teams?

Advanced Metric FAQ: Quality of teammates

How do we account for the Quality of Teammates in the NHL?

Advanced Metric FAQ: Scoring Chances

What's the next wave in hockey analysis? A group of volunteers is recording every scoring chance for the NW division - this could be as big as Project Scoresheet was in baseball once they have every team covered.

Advanced Metric FAQ: Goals and points per 60 mins

We know who scored the most points in the NHL last season. But who did it most efficiently, and put up the most points per 60 minutes of ice time?

Advanced Metric FAQ: Shot Distance

How does shooting distance affect shooting percentage?

Advanced Metric: Penalty +/-

Drawing penalties is one of the most important skills in the NHL. Yet you can't find a list of league leaders on any mainstream stats site - find out who's the best in the league at taking the other team to the box.

Advanced Metric FAQ: Zone Starts

Some NHL players take lots of defensive zone draws; others get the ones in the offensive zone. How important is this ratio to their individual statistics?

Advanced Metric FAQ: What is a Corsi number?

So what's a "Corsi Number" and why is it so important in hockey?

Advanced Metric FAQ: What does QoC tell us?

How do we evaluate the Quality of Competition faced by an NHL player?

Advanced Metric FAQ: A spin through +/- stats

How can we improve on traditional +/- in hockey? A brief introduction to Behind the Net's advanced +/- statistics.