Here we are, less than a week into the National Hockey League’s Free Agency period. Typically this is a part of the league’s calendar that Winnipeg Jets’ fans can turn off their phones and step away from the latest breaking news. With the limited pull our little northern city has with the players in the league, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff tends to hear a lot of “no’s” when he contacts the agents for the upper echelon of unrestricted free agents (UFAs) on July 1st. The Jets’ faithful are used to the team having to filter through the “bargain bin” before they make any additions in late July or August.
While this 2026 UFA class is far from bursting with promise, Winnipeg bucked the trend this summer and for the first time since 2017 & 2019, our club was able to add at least two players in the first week of free agency. Still with a couple of days to work with before the week concludes, Chevy has already signed THREE players to contracts, making it their most active start to a free agency ever.
Also, when you look at those two previous “active” starts, they only really brought in one player for the NHL club (2017: Steve Mason – G & 2019: Nathan Beaulieu – D) while also signing depth defenseman Cameron Schilling on both occasions. So when you consider Winnipeg has already added at least a couple expected NHLers…this is easily the franchise’s best beginning to an off-season. Especially when you discover where some of the newest Jets were rated on The Hockey Writers’ Top 40 UFA list.
Stuart Skinner – 23rd
Mario Ferraro – 30th
For the club that leads the rest of the league in being on players’ no trade lists, to get two players in the top 30 is really impressive. When you throw in a potential 4th line grinder like Noah Gregor, you have to be happy with Cheveldayoff’s work in this area. Before people start typing angrily in the Comment section, I know that these moves have only impacted the bottom or depth areas of the roster and there is still a lot of work to be done, in particular to the top six. So I am not recommending Winnipeg’s management for the GM of the Year award or anything like that….just giving them kudos when they earn them.
There are still some options out in Free Agency to possibly help out the Jets’ top six like Anthony Mantha, Oliver Bjorkstrand, & Eeli Tolvanen, but I wouldn’t say any of them are ideal or without risk. Personally, I am not expecting Winnipeg to be very active in free agency from here on out and think the team will switch to the trade approach to continue to try and improve the roster. It is possible that a potential Connor Hellebuyck trade could be holding things up a bit, since the GM doesn’t exactly know what holes any return would fill. Though it does seem that any interest in Bucky has been reduced to two franchises at this point (BUF/CAR)….and I am not that sure the Hurricanes are very serious. If correct in my assessment, that would leave the Sabres’ GM with little pressure to increase their offer to the Jets and that has resulted in the stand off that has existed since the passing of the Entry Draft reduced some of the available assets. With statements like “both the franchise & player take risks when signing a long-term contract in the NHL“, I believe Cheveldayoff is digging his heels into the sand and indicating that Winnipeg is fine keeping the 3 time Vezina Trophy winner in the fold. I also think that Buffalo GM Jarmo Kekalainen has drawn his line in the sand with respect to what he is willing to give up….so we might need something to happen to make one of them move. And that is seeming more likely to occur during the upcoming NHL campaign to me….a bad start for the Sabres, an injury, etc.
Well, that is enough of my trying to predict the future…because without a Bucky trade, I am at a loss to figure out exactly how the Winnipeg Jets will try to improve the top six. I am very high on recent draft pick Viggo Bjorck and everything I’ve heard from Development Camp seems to support my feeling. But even if he does make the club immediately, our True Northers will need more to ensure that enough offense comes from the middle six. Hopefully Winnipeg’s front office has more ideas than I do….because all I got is hoping the Jets could get one of Josh Norris or Ryan McLeod along with Jack Quinn and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen from Buffalo in a Bucky trade.
Now lets get back to looking at what the Jets have brought into the organization with the signings of Mario Ferraro (3 yrs @ $4M), Stuart Skinner (2 yrs @ $3.75M), and Noah Gregor (1 yr @ $850k). I would say that all three players will have a shot at earning a NHL roster spot in training camp, though Gregor’s 2 way deal hints that he might have a more difficult path to that goal.
Winnipeg has been able to plug a couple holes in their line up (3rd pairing LD & back up goalie), so let us take a closer peek at the players who will be replacing Logan Stanley and Eric Comrie.
MARIO FERRARO
27 yrs old, 6′ 209 lbs
#30 on The Hockey Writers top 40 UFA list
I will admit that I haven’t watched a ton of San Jose Sharks hockey over the past 7 seasons, but when I heard that the Jets had signed Ferraro to a contract I was excited. He has a reputation of being a shutdown defender in the media and a hockey team can always use players that are good in their own end. So I eagerly dove into the stats to see for myself what Winnipeg had brought in, starting off with Mario’s basic career stats via ESPN.
Okay, it didn’t surprise me to see that the 27 yr old hasn’t lit up the scoresheet over his career since his rep is based on the play at the other end of the ice, so a 0.233 pts/gm rate is about what I expected. I will admit that there were some ugly numbers above like a -121 plus/minus rating that caught me by surprise. Yet when I did the math to discover that San Jose has a whopping -525 rating during Ferraro’s time with them it is easier to understand why a “defensive defenseman” has such poor stats in that category (played 35% of the minutes & only had 23% of the minuses). The Toronto-born defender has been playing top pairing minutes against the opposition’s top talent in a shutdown role since his 2nd NHL season with the Sharks….and that is for a rebuilding squad that has put up Plus/Minuses of -44, -48, -50, -87, -150, -105, & -41 over that span.
With limited penalty minutes over his career, it is nice to see that while he does spend more time in the “sin bin” than players who get caught making infractions against him, the ratio is in the range you would expect from a defenseman, so we shouldn’t have to see him taking a lot of dumb penalties. Lets check out MoneyPuck’s advanced stats for 5 on 5 play to see what they tell us.
Well, that didn’t help ease any concerns since the Expected Goals (xG’s) numbers are not good at all….in fact, worse than Big Stan’s are (someone I continuously complained about). With both On-Ice Goals & Expected Goals percentages below 50% at even strength for most of his career, that doesn’t make a lot of sense when everyone seems to agree that Ferraro is a good defenseman…so lets dive in further.
For starters, San Jose have been one of the NHL’s worst clubs since Ferraro came into the league, with their best seasons being a pair of 11th worst finishes to go along with two last place, a 3rd worst, a 4th worst, and a 6th worst result. While this most recent campaign was one of the Sharks better ones, the Canadian defenseman had to play the majority of last season on his off-side (right) alongside young LD Shakir Mukhamadullin.
Because there was such a talent difference between the Jets & Sharks over the recent NHL seasons, when you compare the On Ice xG & Off Ice xG stats, you would see that Ferraro was often better than the other options San Jose had to pick from. While Stanley typically was the worst option that Winnipeg’s coaching staff could deploy. Another difference between the two defensemen is that Ferraro has been deployed in a lot more Neutral or Defensive Zone starts when compare to Stanley. Admittedly both players did have that for their highest areas for deployment, but Mario has averaged 5 minutes of ice time per game more than Logan over their careers, showing that one was facing 1st pairing level competition while the other was being sheltered by his coaches.
So hopefully that means that Ferraro’s advanced stats will improve dramatically in 2026-27 with the much more defensively minded Winnipeg Jets. He definitely should see a reduced role behind Josh Morrissey and Dylan Samberg on the left side, so that will help as well with a decreased level of competition.
Overall Winnipeg is covered much better than it was previously on the left side in case of injuries in the top 4 because of the signing, unlike last season when Samberg was out and the squad struggled mightily without their best defender. Ferraro should also add another effective penalty killer to the roster and should help the Jets do better than the 77.6% PK kill rate they put up this year. While I can’t lean on the data as I typically do to support my stance….I am still very happy with the latest addition to the True North defensive core and think he’ll pay dividends in the upcoming campaign.
STUART SKINNER
27 yrs old, 6’4″ 229 lbs
#23 on The Hockey Writers top 40 UFA list
Okay, I will admit that my first thought when I heard that Winnipeg had signed Skinner didn’t have anything to do with his playing history…it was more along the lines that a Hellebuyck trade must be coming down the pipe quickly. GM Cheveldayoff later killed that expectation not only due to his lack of activity on the trade front, but also when he told reporters that the signing was purely about making a move that he thought improved the Jets for the upcoming season.
Of course, I was well aware of the goalies’ struggles at times with the Edmonton Oilers, in particular during the playoffs, and that the move to the Pittsburgh Penguins didn’t exactly go as well as he wished. Here are Stuart’s basic career stats from ESPN:
The Edmonton-born tender has put up a career save percentage (.902%) that is slightly above that of a league average goalie, but not by much. His yearly sv%’s haven’t wavered too far off from that point, with Skinner’s best seasons coming early on and the numbers going the wrong way over the past 3 campaigns.
The Albertan does have the prototypical frame that the NHL is looking for and Winnipeg goaltending coach, Wade Flaherty, has done wonders with the games of players like Laurent Brossoit & Eric Comrie in the past…helping both tenders earn near-starter level contracts in free agency. So the combination of that and a Jets’ system that tries to make the opposition’s offense as predictable as possible could possibly see the 27 yr old’s NHL career take an upswing.
Since I always considered the Oilers as an offense first team that tended to give up too many good scoring chances against, I thought I would do a bit more digging to see what Skinner’s career numbers tell us when it comes to his Actual and Expected Goals Against Averages (GAA).
The chart above didn’t really do anything to change the perception of Winnipeg’s newest goalie, as it continued to suggest that he is slightly better than an average NHL tender. In 4 out of 5 seasons, the Canadian has finished the regular season with a GAA slightly better than expected, plus his Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE) rating confirms that consistency.
Contradicting my perceptions, Edmonton is not a team that gives up a ton of scoring chances after all. In fact, over Stuart’s 4 seasons in Alberta, the Oilers finished with the 16th, 23rd, 29th, & 31st most expected goals against in all situations, while the Pittsburgh Penguins ended with the 17th most xG’s against last year (all in the top half of best defending clubs). So that nullifies the thought that coming to Winnipeg’s ultra-defensive system would be a huge boost to Skinner’s play.
Despite that, I am still very much approving of the Jets signing the 27 yr old, as he provides an upgrade over last year’s back up Eric Comrie at the very least. Skinner also has shown that he can up his game over a full season with a couple +.910 sv% campaigns, so if he is forced into a 1A/1B situation should Hellebuyck be traded after all, there is still some hope that he could provide quality starts on a consistent basis.
NOAH GREGOR
27 yrs old, 6′ 190 lbs
The third 27 year old Winnipeg signed this off-season, the news of Gregor’s deal with the Jets didn’t get the same reaction as the first two. That isn’t because I can’t appreciate what a grinding bottom sixer can do for a team, as I spent the vast majority of my own hockey “career” playing that role.
While the Albertan can certainly be effective when he is throwing bodychecks and agitating the opposition, the fact that he has yet to become a full time starter over his career suggests that his coaching staffs have often had equal or better options to choose from. That makes Gregor likely fall into the Depth Forward category, with the distinct possibility that he could be providing veteran leadership in the AHL to a likely young Manitoba Moose squad.
Lets see what his stats via ESPN tell us about the Canadian forward:
While 79 points over 330 games doesn’t sound that impressive, 0.239 pts/gm is actually not a horrible output from a 4th liner in the NHL. In 5 seasons, Gregor has flirted with the 10% shooting percentage mark, which again shows that he has more offensive upside that your typical 4th line player.
However, before you get excited about Winnipeg adding some offense to their bottom six, MoneyPuck’s advanced stats kind of put a damper on things:
These types of numbers well below the 50% plateau aren’t the kind of thing you want to see from a 4th liner….because that is the type of thing that leads to a coaching staff riding their top 3 lines too much. While Gregor does have the excuse for mainly being on team’s that weren’t very good, with the only playoff appearance coming during his season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Yet even then, his Expected Goal numbers weren’t very good.
Maybe it is just me? But if I was a coach and had to choose between players that had an offensive upside to go along with a defensive downside, I would be leaning towards a younger player like Brad Lambert, Isak Rosen, Nikita Chibrikov for that role. It is more likely coach Scott Arniel would opt for a more defensively responsible player for his 4th line anyways, likely leaning towards one of the veterans on Winnipeg’s roster or maybe someone like Brayden Yager from the Moose. So I guess what I am saying is that I don’t think Gregor will be a regular starter for the Jets this season…..but I have been wrong in the past and I am fairly sure it will happen again at some point.
*****
Now that we’ve taken a look at GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s body of work in Free Agency, lets hear your thoughts on the new additions. Feel free to add any comments on the direction you think Winnipeg needs to take over the rest of the summer….and might as well let me know what your Hellebuyck Trade Meter is reading for this summer (mine is down to about 25-30%) and whether you think the goalie will still be with the team when the pre-season games kick off on September 19th?
I am also working on adding another part-time writer for Arctic Ice Hockey and they are very much into tracking & rating young players throughout their development. I know not everyone is into the numbers and data of hockey, but I think it will be good to have another perspective on how the True North prospects are doing on their road to the NHL and how they might compare to their counterparts. Also, I know that this person’s additions will be valuable around Entry Drafts, as they really enjoy digging into all that information to determine who are the real gems and who are being artificially pumped up by the scouts.
Unfortunately, even if that new “hire” does pan out, it will still be just me covering the hockey action for the Winnipeg Jets. So if anyone out there is interested in volunteering to help out, please contact BigOlJetAirliner at arcticicehockeyjets@gmail.com. I would certainly appreciate any assistance and would be extremely flexible about what types of articles & how often you are expected to post. Just trying to provide our little community the best entertainment I can, since we are Winnipeg Jets’ fans and deserve the best despite the universe conspiring against us!!🙂
