Over at Hockey-Graphs, I recently wrote an article breaking down how the All-Star lines would look like if you (mostly) made them by the numbers. It wasn't a serious article, but just a bit of fun since that's apparently what this week is about.
Of course I didn't want the fun to stop there. I already had done the work so why not add the Winnipeg Jets top players in the mix and see how they compare to these elites in results since the 2013-14 season to present.
|Ryan Nugent Hopkins||125||1880.4||1.7||-186.42||-5.95||46.3||1.6||48.0||3.0|
A quick review for those that don't know the numbers. Games played and Time On Ice are pretty self explanatory. Points per sixty minutes is just that. Corsi% is simply the percentage of shot attempts a team controls with said player on the ice. relCorsi is how much better a team does in Corsi percentage with the player on the ice rather than on the bench. dCorsi and dCorsi/60 are just measurements of how that player performs in those statistics relative to expectations given their usage. Scoring Chances (SCF) is just Corsi with some adjustments by shot location, rebounds, and shots from the rush to add in shot quality, which tends to be a bit better predictor for forwards. Fenwick is removing blocked shots which tends to be better for defensemen. The numbers are 5v5, which does underrate elite power play producers like Alexander Ovechkin.
The Jets do not have a dominant possession centre like Patrice Bergeron or Jonathan Toews, nor do they sport a elite scorer like Ryan Getzlaf or Tyler Seguin. However, the Jets do have a lot of depth that makes them comparable to some of the best in the business.
Sorry that the tables aren't sortable, but you can do it yourself on a spreadsheet if you copy and paste.
Matthieu Perreault shows how much he's been underrated and why he's a major factor in the Jets improved performance this year. Michael Frolik also adds a golden star for Kevin Cheveldayoff. Both are strong two-way players while also adding a bit of scoring punch.
The trio of Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little, and Blake Wheeler are consistently underrated and are sold off as not top line caliber by outsiders. The truth could not be further. Ladd and Little perform well above expectations in shot metrics while Wheeler adds the line a scoring touch.
Evander Kane despite his slumping offensive numbers this season (which have been rising quickly lately) also put him near the top performers in the world.
It's a little unfair, since the Jets best defenseman is on the All-Star roster. Still, he's pretty good and may be underrated relative to the rest of the roster.
Grant Clitsome and Paul Postma were added to the list not because they are elite, but for two other reasons. Firstly, they are severely underrated and under appreciated for how they perform. Yes, they are not as good of players as the guys above them, but they do their job well. They are playing easier minutes but they do relatively well in them.
Secondly (and relatedly), the Jets are likely giving their top defenders too heavy of a workload. dCorsi helps indicate whether or not a player is meeting expectations giving their usage. It would likely benefit the team overall if Paul Maurice trusted his bottom guys like Paul Postma a bit more and eased things off a bit for Zach Bogosian et al.
Technically this has been happening with the return of Dustin Byfuglien. Byfuglien is an elite defender who has been surpassing expectations, despite playing with a (formidable) AHL call-up in tough minutes. For those curious, Byfuglien's dCorsi as a forward was a grotesque -8.0 per sixty.
It's amazing that Trouba has done as well as he has. In fact, there is a lot of evidence that he has surpassed Bogosian already, even with Mark Stuart as an anchor. The Jets should probably place Enstrom with Trouba as the second instead of the current set up. Unfortunately for Enstrom, the Swedish defenders numbers have fallen a bit away from Byfuglien.
For those curious as to why Shea Weber's and Ryan Suter's numbers are so low, there is a great article on Sports Illustrated that dissected video showing how much the two relied on each other in moving the puck out of their zone and why they have struggled since being split. It is something that needs to be discussed more in hockey analytics, on how results are impacted on things other than usage and skill. Chemistry in terms of certain skill sets accenting each other is an important factor as well. The Jets have experienced the opposite of this chemistry when Mark Stuart and Jay Harrison were placed together.