Hello everyone and welcome to Arctic Ice Hockey's very own Friday #FancyStats Mailbag! Once a week(ish) I'll be answering a few of your questions on underlying metrics. Also, I will try to explore any concerns about the Winnipeg Jets that can be investigated through data.
Today's version is a bit different as I forgot to ask for questions this week. Instead of responding to emails, I have accumulated some questions asked to me (or was brought up in general discussion) over twitter the last while and will answer them here.
1) a) Is it surprising Andrew Ladd is leading the Jets in points?
It shouldn't be all that surprising.
Since the Jets inaugural season, Andrew Ladd places fourth on the squad in points per minute for all situations and tied for first for even strength (5v5).
|5v5 P/60||All P/60||5v5 P/60||All P/60|
All the Jets top scorers are fairly similar in their point production talent. The slightest increase in ice time or on-ice percentages can push one of these players over (or under) the other.
1) b) Where does Scheifele sit relative to those guys?
Mark Scheifele has scored as a Jet at a 1.6 per 60 minute pace for 5v5, which places him under Tim Stapleton's and Nik Antropov's 1.7 and above Devin Setoguchi's 1.4 and Olli Jokinen's 1.3.
If we include all minutes (adding in both power play and penalty kill minutes), Scheifele's 1.8 is tied with Nik Antropov, while just under Michael Frolik's 1.9 and over Olli Jokinen's 1.6. Keep in mind when adding all minutes, that guys with PK assignments will be at a disadvantage.
2) What is the difference in the Jets player performance with Michael Hutchinson in net versus Ondrej Pavelec?
When looking at difference in performance, we want to remove as much of goaltending impact as possible.
For the most part, the Jets' skaters have performed better with Michael Hutchinson in the net. Interestingly, it seems to predominately come from the offensive side of the game. The Jets possession (Corsi percentage) and shots against (SA/60) performances have been similar, but the Jets have generated more shot volume and far more goal support for Hutchinson than Pavelec.
The obvious follow up question would be "why?" there is a difference...
Does Pavelec face back ups more often? Is it a difference in teams faced? Schedule? Luck? Do the players feel more confident with one goaltender than the other?
It could be a mix of any of the above. What we can look at though is how the Jets opponents perform when not playing against the Jets' goaltenders.
In terms of goals, the two netminders tend to face similar opponents. Both groups of opponents have similar goal differentials (Goal percentage) and similar leaky defense in allowing goals (GA/60). Underlying numbers though indicate that Hutchinson's competition has actually been harder, with Hutchinson's opponents tending to out possess while Pavelec's tend to be out possessed. Pavelec's opponents also tend to generate less shots and allow more shots against.
From this we would estimate that opponents are not likely a factor for the differences observed in team support the two goaltenders have received. How much is schedule, luck, and confidence though cannot be answered by these numbers.
3) a) What is the probability that Ondrej Pavelec plays as well as he did last night?
Last night Pavelec played well. Very well. He essentially stole the game and posted a 0.979 save percentage. The Stars generated far more offense, with about 3.5 times more scoring chances than the Jets generated.
There are two ways we can look at this.
1 - We can use Z-score distribution to estimate the probability Pavelec posts above a 0.979 save percentage, which approximates an expected occurrence of 13.8 percent of the time. This seems a bit high, and it is. The reason it is so high, is it requires Pavelec's distribution in performance to be normal shaped, when in reality it is heavily skewed.
The above is histogram of how often Pavelec has posted a single game save percentage of value X.
2 - We can also simply look at often has Pavelec posted a 0.979 or better. This turns out to be only in 4.76 percent of Pavelec's games.
3) b) That distribution is neat. Can I see Pavelec's versus Hutchinson's?
Thank you everyone who writes in when I do make requests!
That is all for this week. I promise I will eventually reply to all questions -within the realm of possibility-, just not always right away. The plan is to answer every single question given to me, although sometimes they may slide a week or two depending on the workload I receive.
If you have any questions you want looked at, email me at garrethohlaih (at) gmail (dot) com.