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Penticton Young Stars FancyStats: Edmonton Oilers vs Winnipeg Jets

Shot metrics for a prospects tournament? Yes please!

Jeff Zelevansky

I'm in Penticton to watch the Winnipeg Jets, prospect edition. Of course, with my interest of shot metrics, I decided to track some numbers for this game.

It is difficult to track live, especially when the focus is on watching the game, taking notes, and enjoying the experience. So to simplify things, I essentially tracked a line's or pair's Corsi%. This means that there is a bit of inaccuracy in the individual, especially when players get double shifted due to penalties and such. For the most part, the numbers are most representative of the centre of each line.

This game was crazy as there were so many penalties, and such few 5v5 moments. In addition, the game was very "grindy" with much of the 5v5 time spent in board battles or in the neutral zone, so very low 5v5 shot events. For context, the Jets had similar shot attempts for (20) in this game as they did in the first period of game two (21).

Recall that Corsi events are just shot attempts for 5v5 situations, and approximate puck possession.


Info Zone Usage First Period Second Period Third Period Game
1 Nic Petan 0 2 2 0% 2 3 -1 2 4 -2 1 0 1 5 7 -2
Adam Lowry
JC Lipon
2 Axel Blomqvist 1 2 2 33% 3 5 -2 0 2 -2 0 1 -1 3 8 -5
Ryan Olsen
Austen Brassard
3 Scott Kosmachuk 2 3 2 50% 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 4 2 2
Chase De Leo
Nikolaj Ehlers
4 Jean Dupuy 2 5 3 40% 2 4 -2 5 3 2 1 3 -2 8 10 -2
Ben Walker
Jimmy Lodge


Well that's really low event hockey. Much of the game was made on the power play.

The Jets two lines with their "high profile" players were not used much at even strength. The top line was deployed only on four 5v5 faceoffs (none of which in the offensive zone), but received heavy usage for PP and PK (and there were a lot of those minutes with 18 penalties).

Nic Petan showed that he could slow down and control the play no matter what position he's playing, and that he has more defensive game to him than what some had previously thought. Adam Lowry banged up some bodies as always while being one of the Jets best players in the defensive zone, although he struggled once given the puck. JC Lipon meanwhile played his usual style of pest with a few nice passes on the power play.

The second line (as listed by the official roster form) was a source of a lot of the Jets chances against, again, despite not actually getting much ice time.

Axel Blomqvist had some good moments (and one hilarious moment losing a skate blade), specifically in protecting the puck and gaining offensive zone entry with control of the puck. Ryan Olsen played a "checker" like game, with constantly hitting everything that moved and strong positional play in the defensive zone. Rhys and I also noticed that Olsen likes to cheat on the faceoff a lot. Austen Brassard was far less visible than in the previous game.

The "third line" was very impressive, again.

Scott Kosmachuk played well despite playing on his offside, playing both physical and driving to the net to make space for Ehlers. Chase De Leo showed speed in both ends of the rink and had a strong game. The star of the show was Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers had perhaps the most dominant performance of the entire tournament of any team. He scored 2 goals in regulation, plus one in the shootout, and had an assist (that was all on his effort and play). He also was solid defensively, creating back pressure with his back checking and knowing when to regroup and when to drive.

The fourth line was a bit of a mish-mash. It was obvious that the Jets were mostly evaluating this game, as this line of mostly invites (and the invite defensive pair) were given more than a lion's share of even strength minutes.

Dupuy faired better than the day prior, although was still not the largest factor on his line. Walker showed tenacity and speed that could make him a solid bottom six piece for the IceCaps this season if he is signed to an AHL contract. Jimmy Lodge had a beauty of an assist showing off his vision and patience. He tried to play physical as well, although does not have the meat on his frame to succeed in this role yet.


Info Zone Usage First Period Second Period Third Period Game
1 Josh Morrissey 2 2 3 40% 2 3 -1 0 2 -2 2 3 -1 4 8 -4
Brenden Kichton
2 Nikolas Brouillard 2 7 2 50% 4 4 0 3 4 -1 0 2 -2 7 10 -3
Zach Bell
3 Nelson Nogier 1 3 4 20% 3 5 -2 4 3 1 2 1 1 9 9 0
Jan Kostalek


As a repeat from the night before, the first pair struggled badly. Although this time they were not the only ones.

Joshua Morrissey played a little better, although he still had a tendency of essentially trying too hard to do too much. Brenden Kichton showed offensive zone instincts but struggled to effectively play in the defensive zone or move the puck in break outs.

The pair of invites struggled as well although in very different fashion.

Nikolas Brouillard flashed skill and also was adept in moving the puck. He also was also decently physical for a player his size in the defensive zone. Zach Bell struggled in multiple facets of the game, giving up large gaps and losing assignments in the defensive zone. As a defensive defenseman, this should be his areas of strength, not weakness.

The third pair was very fun to watch closely. They read off of each other well, played well defensively, and moved the puck quickly with little error.

Nelson Nogier appeared to be mature beyond his experience and years. While raw, there could be something there despite his low offensive numbers in the WHL. Jan Kostalek continues to impress with his ability to adapt to the situation and defensive partner he is given.