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Fancystats Roster Test: Evander Kane, Mathieu Perreault, Eric O`Dell

Arctic Ice Hockey puts the Winnipeg Jets roster to the test... the fancystats test.

Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

Lately a lot of my work is with creating reasonable expectations. When judging a player, especially using quantifiable measures, you must have reasonable baselines to compare the player to. If you don't, there is no point.

Using 5v5 TOI/60 of previous players I was able to calculate a baseline based off of mean and median values:

Corsi% P/60
First line 51.8% 2.0
Second line 50.5% 1.7
Third line 49.3% 1.5
Fourth line 48.1% 1.0

It's difficult to predict the Jets future lines and usage, especially given how last season went. Then add in the fluid movement with injuries, slumps, hot streaks and simple changes for the sake of change, it becomes near impossible to predict perfectly... but I can make reasonable estimates given comments from Kevin Cheveldayoff and Paul Maurice.

We continue with the-players-placed-with-Kane line

Evander Kane - Mathieu Perreault - Eric O`Dell

For a long while, the Jets have been trying to make a middle six forward combination that works. Unfortunately the Jets have yet to surpass the excellent results (albeit while sheltered) of the Evander Kane - Alexander Burmistrov - Kyle Wellwood line.

Why isn't Evander Kane with Mark Scheifele or Blake Wheeler?

Maurice spoke late in the season about wanting to separate Kane from Wheeler while creating three scoring lines with balanced ice time. This separation makes sense since both Wheeler and Kane are at their best when they have the puck on their stick and making a rushed offensive zone entry with control. In addition, Perreault hinted in his phone interview that he might start the season with Kane on his wing.

Eric O`Dell is a tougher call. He does seem the most likely candidate, with Wheeler likely playing with Scheifele. Although, there have been multiple reported rumors that the Jets are in talks with Lee Stempniak. If so, Stempniak would likely place here on this line if this were to happen.

Line Player Corsi% Baseline Pass/Fail P/60 Baseline Pass/Fail
"2nd Line" Evander Kane 51.1% 50.5% Pass 2.04 1.7 Pass
Mathieu Perreault 53.0% 50.5% Pass 2.34 1.7 Pass
Eric O`Dell 51.2% 50.5% Pass 1.31 1.7 Fail

"3rd Line" Evander Kane 51.1% 49.3% Pass 2.04 1.5 Pass
Mathieu Perreault 53.0% 49.3% Pass 2.34 1.5 Pass
Eric O`Dell 51.2% 49.3% Pass 1.31 1.5 Fail

Numbers are for 2011-14 cumulative.

* Evander Kane is pretty good at what he does. Both his Corsi% and point production has been well over average for a middle six player (even above average for a first line player). Evander Kane's Corsi over the previous 3 seasons has been 52.3%, 48.9% and 51.6%. His 5v5 point pace per 60 minutes over the same time frame has been 2.31, 1.86, and 1.78. Kane is also 24th in the league for 5v5 goals per minute for the sample.

* Mathieu Perreault has made a living destroying the soft underbellies of other teams' bottom six players. His Corsi% has been 55.1%, 52.6%, and 51.4%, while his scoring per 60 minute pace has been 2.36, 2.08, and 2.45. While Kane is 24th in league for 5v5 goals per minute, Perreault is 29th in goals and 20th in primary assists.

* Eric O`Dell only has a very small NHL sample size, so there isn't much to take from this data. However, we do know that O`Dell has been a top scoring performer in the AHL over the past two seasons. His Corsi% is excellent although he has been severely sheltered. If O`Dell is placed in the offensive zone with these guys, good things should happen and that point pace will increase.

* For those wondering, Lee Stempniak has a humble 49.5% Corsi over the past 3 seasons (52.1%, 50.0%, and 47.4%), although this is a big step up from his teammates' 48.1% without him on the ice.  Stempniak's taken tough minutes similar to the Jets LLF. His point production is 1.61 5v5 points per 60 minutes for the same seasons (1.67, 2.05, and 1.30).

With O`Dell there is risk that he is not ready for top minutes that Maurice will be giving all three of his scoring lines. It may be better to have nine forwards on the depth chart ahead of him. O`Dell would still likely see tons of offensive minutes throughout the season with the near inevitable likelihood of injuries.

While they may not be a tough minutes line like the Andrew Ladd - Bryan Little - Michael Frolik line, any combination of forwards with Kane-Perreault should be able to produce tons of offense while taking advantage and out chancing of the easier minutes leftover by Ladd-Little-Frolik.