This week I will try to provide a bit of context to how the Jets goaltenders are doing, with a sprinkle of a look into how the Jets score goals, by looking at the opposing goaltender’s performance. The Jets have pretty clearly been struggling to score goals this year, so maybe this will give us a bit of an idea as to why. It won’t be as in depth as my previous posts, but hopefully it will provide us with some interesting insight.
The Basics
|
|
Even Strength |
Special Teams |
Total |
|
Shots Against |
226 |
78 |
304 |
|
Saves |
210 |
74 |
284 |
|
Goals Against |
16 |
4 |
20 |
|
Save Percentage |
.929 |
.949 |
.934 |
We all know that the Jets haven't been scoring. Let's remember here that six of these goals game against Arizona in the very first game of the year. This has very clearly led to opposing goaltenders putting up some pretty solid numbers. The result has been way better goaltending (by the numbers) than the Jets have received this season. I mean, look at that special teams save percentage. That's insane. It's pretty obvious that number will drop at some point, but what has been going on to lead to these results? Let's take a look.
Situations
|
|
Even Strength |
Special Teams |
Total |
|
Odd Man Rush |
25% (4) |
0% |
20% |
|
Sustained Pressure |
25% (4) |
25% (1) |
25% |
|
Average Play/Breakout/OZ Faceoff |
43.8% (7) |
75% (3) |
50% |
|
Turnover in Zone |
6.3% (1) |
0% |
5% |
It looks like the Jets have relied pretty heavily on offensive zone face-offs and well executed neutral zone transitions to score goals. On both the power play, and at even strength. They haven't really been able to translate any sustained offensive zone pressure into goals, and opponents seem to prevent too many odd man rush attempts and defensive zone turnovers against the Jets.
It may be difficult to explain this, but I’m going to try my best to do so. I think the lineup decisions right now may be a huge factor. The Jets fourth line is a quick one to toss out the window. They don’t get much offensive zone time, and when they do it isn’t exactly pretty. The third line has spent a good chunk of time with Chris Thorburn. This has made it pretty difficult for them to sustain constant pressure, and his inability to finish could directly translate in a lack of conversion. Throw in that Adam Lowry hasn’t thrived in the center position too much thus far, and you have a lack of scoring. The Jets second line has been pretty snake bit. Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler have looked fantastic at times, but my goodness have they hit a lot of posts. That luck will eventually change. Or at least we all hope it will. Finally the top line (until recently) has been struggling a fair amount in tough minutes, which has likely contributed pretty greatly to the lack of sustained pressure goals.
As the lineup gets back Evander Kane, as Mark Schiefele stops hitting posts, and Chris Thorburn stops dragging down the third line, and as Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little and Michael Frolik start producing how they have in the past, the Jets will start to score again. Hopefully.
Reasons
|
|
Even Strength |
Special Teams |
Total |
|
Bad Break/Deflection/Traffic |
31.3% (5) |
0% |
25% |
|
Out of Position |
6.3% (1) |
50% (2) |
15% |
|
Rebound |
18.8% (3) |
0% |
15% |
|
Beat Clean – Goalie @ Fault |
12.5% (2) |
0% |
10% |
|
Beat Clean – Goalie Not Faulted |
31.3% (5) |
50% (2) |
35% |
Opposing goaltenders have done a pretty good job of ensuring they aren't the direct cause of even strength goals against. Must be nice. The Jets have relied on traffic in front of the net and deflections off of offensive zone face-off wins, and well structured breakouts to score a fair chunk of their goals.
Which leads me to the lack of goals on the power play. How a team can not score a single goal off of a rebound, or due to traffic/deflections on the power play is just flabbergasting. Especially one that is so damn reliant on the point shot for production.
This just in PoMo: That plan isn't working.
The Jets have to think of something new on the power play. When Dustin Byfuglien is set up at the point, nobody moves. Guys stand still, and do nothing outside of feed the point. Nobody gets in front of the net, and opposing teams know to just shut him down. Change things up. Use Dustin Byfuglien how he was used in Chicago. Plant his huge body in front of the net, and let everyone else set up. Get your feet moving, win battles, and give the goaltenders trouble. What is happening right now is pitiful.
Goal Locations
|
|
Even Strength |
Special Teams |
Total |
|
Five Hole |
12.5% (2) |
25% (1) |
15% |
|
Glove Hand |
18.8% (3) |
25% (1) |
20% |
|
Blocker Side |
12.5% (2) |
0% |
10% |
|
Left Pad |
18.8% (3) |
0% |
15% |
|
Right Pad |
25% (4) |
50% (2) |
30% |
|
Open Net |
12.5% (2) |
0% |
10% |
As to be suspected when the sample is coming from a random compilation of goaltenders: there are no real trends here. It's all random. If you see something I don't, please tell.
Evidence
Sorry folks. I just haven' thad the time to get together video for the Jets goals. I'll try to get some together for next time.
Summary
The debate has already started in regards to why the Jets haven't been able to score. Maybe the just don't have the skill? Maybe it's just bad luck? Maybe it's the playings style and lineup decisions. I think it's likely a combination of them all, but remember, this is still a small sample size. Give it a few more weeks, and things may become a little clearer. We hope.
