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Winnipeg Jets by the numbers: Fun with small sample sizes

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Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

The season is (nearly) 10% over, and that may seem like a significant sample, but it isn't. It still incredibly early - far too early to read much into the numbers. Let's take a look at the numbers for example on why this is the case.

The Players:

PLAYER POS GP G A P S S%
TOBY ENSTROM D 8 0 6 6 9 0
BRYAN LITTLE C 8 5 1 6 22 22.7
ANDREW LADD L 8 2 3 5 24 8.3
BLAKE WHEELER R 8 3 2 5 20 15
DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN R 8 2 1 3 27 7.4
MATHIEU PERREAULT C 8 0 3 3 13 0
ZACH BOGOSIAN D 8 0 3 3 16 0
MICHAEL FROLIK R 8 0 2 2 20 0
MARK SCHEIFELE C 8 1 1 2 19 5.3
MARK STUART D 8 1 0 1 9 11.1
ADAM PARDY D 5 0 1 1 4 0
GRANT CLITSOME D 3 0 1 1 3 0
PAUL POSTMA D 8 0 1 1 9 0
ADAM LOWRY L 8 1 0 1 12 8.3
CHRIS THORBURN R 8 0 0 0 6 0
JIM SLATER C 8 0 0 0 4 0
TJ GALIARDI L 8 0 0 0 14 0
ANTHONY PELUSO R 3 0 0 0 4 0
MATT HALISCHUK R 4 0 0 0 0 0
EVANDER KANE L 1 0 0 0 0 0
JACOB TROUBA D 8 0 0 0 14 0

Notes:

  • Toby Enstrom is on pace for a 60 point season.
  • Bryan Little is on pace for 50 goals.
  • If he sustained his current pace, Scheifele would end the year with ten goals and ten assist for twenty points.
  • Mathieu Perreault, Michael Frolik, Evander Kane, Jacob Trouba and Toby Enstrom would combine for zero goals.
  • I didn't list goalies, but Ondrej is on pace for a .906 sv% (fancy that fancy stat)

Obviously, these number are not sustainable. The Jets are off to a slow start offensively. Apart from Bryan Little and Tobias Enstrom and perhaps a couple bottom end guys, everybody is due for a boost. Frequent shooters Tobias Enstrom, Andrew Ladd, Michael Frolik, Zach Bogosian, Jacob Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien and TJ Galiardi are all due for a boost in shooting percentage. This suggests the exact same play should yield a better goal differential.

The Team:

G/GP GA/GP 5-5 F/A PP% PK% S/GP SA/GP FO%
WINNIPEG 1.88 2.62 0.71 3.6 88.2 31.1 26.6 50.9
Rank 28 14 26 28 5 10 5 12

Notes:

  • Goals against are down, way down and currently ranking mid pack in the NHL.
  • The biggest reason for the decrease in goals against has been shot suppression. The Jets have to date been the 5th best team in terms of shot suppression.
  • Unfortunately the shot suppression hasn't been enough. The Winnipeg Jets are 28th in goals for despite ranking 10th in shots for per game. Odds are this differential improves.
  • The PK has continued to show strong after being a quality unit a year ago.
  • The powerplay has remained problematic, but has been visibly better at gaining the zone and sustaining pressure relative to last year. There's no way the powerplay will continue at such an abysmal rate.

Team Fancy Stats:

All Situations Close Game
Corsi% PDO SH% SV% Corsi% PDO SH% SV%
52.21 95.36 5.88 89.47 55.1 92.76 7.22 85.54
7 29 28 22 4 29 11 30

Notes:

  • As stated above, it is still too early to put much value on these numbers. The Jets have played very few minutes in score close situations and more than half of them came in a single game versus a very poor Colorado Avalanche team. Look at these numbers as descriptive more so than predictive.
  • The Winnipeg Jets Corsi differential to date has been very very good, both overall and in score close situations.
  • For those unaware, PDO simply shooting and save percentage added together. This number generally sits around 100% and when it deviates from 100%, it tend to regress to the mean. It is essentially a puck luck stat. The Winnipeg Jets early PDO has been very, very bad.
  • The low overall shooting percentage is reflective of the struggles the Jets have had finishing. They have been generating quality chances, but unable to beat many goalies.
  • The Jets have allowed early goals in a few games and this is reflected by the low (lowest in the NHL) close score save percentage.

What does it all mean?

Very little. It'll take another 10% or so of the season (ideally about 20 games) before we can really get a read on things. By then, some of these weird percentages should even out. The Jets should also have Evander Kane back which will add a new element. The point is, the Jets may be good, they may be bad, but it is too early to tell. At this point no number is really reliable.