Winnipeg Jets 1st Quarter Review: Grading the Defense and Goalies

You'll have to pardon the delay in getting this out, but my young daughter has kept me incredibly busy the past few days and I didn't have enough time to get this out prior to today. As this is the quarter-pole review, the numbers below are from the first 12 games of the season and do not include yesterday's 3-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

In case you missed it, I reviewed our forwards at the quarter pole the other day. I may have graded them a little higher than others might have thought, but I honestly don't think that our forwards have done that badly. How do I think our defenders and goalies have done? Well, have a look below.

To those not familiar with the advanced stats that I'm using, here are brief descriptions about what the numbers represent (hat tip to behindthenet.ca):

• TOI/60: Time on Ice per 60 minutes.
  
• CorsiQoC: Average Corsi of opposing players, weighted by head-to-head ice time. The higher the number, the tougher the competition the player faced.
  
• CorsiOn: On-Ice Shot Differential (goals + saves + missed shots + blocks). This is expressed as a rate stat per 60 minutes. A positive number means that more shots were directed at the opponents net than on their own while that player is one the ice.
  
• OZS%: Offensive Zone Start % = Offensive Zone Starts / (Offensive Zone Starts + Defensive Zone Starts). Records where a player started his shift.
• PDO: PDO is the sum of "On-Ice Shooting Percentage" and "On-Ice Save Percentage" while a player was on the ice. It regresses very heavily to the mean in the long-run: a team or player well above 1000 has generally played in good luck and should expect to drop going forward and vice-versa.

Defenceman:

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Bogo hadn't gotten into a game this season at the 12-game mark, but he looked pretty darn good in his return to the lineup last night . However, it is obviously impossible to assign a grade for Bogosian. Grade: Incomplete

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GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/60	CorsiQoC	CorsiOn	OZS%	PDO
7	3	4	7	1	6	20.70	4.955	-2.07	50.0	983

Buff takes a lot of flack over his weight and his conditioning, and his casual forays into the offensive zone and lack of a back-check has resulted in us here at AIH giving him the nickname "Bustin". But there is no denying the importance of Big Buff on the blue-line. Sure he runs the PP and is scoring at a point-per-game clip, and is playing over 20-minutes per game. But he also goes up against the toughest competition on our blue-line BY FAR, as his CorsiQoC is an incredibly high 4.955. While I would like his CorsiOn to be in the positives, the tough competition gets him off the hook in my opinion. Grade: A

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GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/60	CorsiQoC	CorsiOn	OZS%	PDO
11	1	1	2	-3	0	11.87	0.258	8.73	60.3	965

"New Guy", as TSN 1290 radio personality Rick Ralph calls him instead of other "colorful" nicknames, has actually had a decent start to the year. While his OZS% is really high at 60.3, he has taken on okay competition and has turned in the 3rd-highest CorsiOn on the blue-line. With Enstrom getting hurt, I could see "New Guy" getting back into the lineup as he's a left-hand shot. Grade: B-

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GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/60	CorsiQoC	CorsiOn	OZS%	PDO
12	2	11	13	-3	8	18.8	1.294	-8.24	50.0	952

The Jets are in trouble if Toby is out for a prolonged period of time, which it looks like he may be. Enstrom was tied for the league-lead for points by d-men with 13 and takes on the 2nd-toughest comp. on the team. However, his CorsiOn of -8.24 is the 2nd-worst on the blue-line which is an unfortunate stat for a top-pairing guy. I guess you take the good with the bad, as leading the team in scoring helps to overlook the low CorsiOn. Grade: B+

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GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/60	CorsiQoC	CorsiOn	OZS%	PDO
12	0	3	3	1	2	18.2	0.855	-13.46	42.9	1015

Ron Hainsey has the worst CorsiOn among defenders on the Jets, and it isn't even close. And it's hard to stick up for him either as he's only facing the 4th-toughest CorsiQoC. I get that he's been playing more minutes than he should be and that he isn't a top-pairing guy, but these numbers are just plain bad. And he's doing this with the highest PDO among the blue-liners, which suggests that a regression might be in order... I will admit that his OZS% is 2nd-lowest on the team, but Stu has way better numbers with the lower OZS%. Sorry Ron, but you are the weakest link on the blue-line. And score a goal already, would ya? Grade: D-

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GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/60	CorsiQoC	CorsiOn	OZS%	PDO
12	1	4	5	-2	2	12.80	-1.800	18.76	63.2	970

Paul Postma has obviously benefited from some sheltered minutes, as the 63.2 OZS% and the -1.800 CorsiQoC have given him a chance to thrive, and he's done just that. His CorsiOn lead all the blue-liners, which is pretty impressive. He's produced some offense which he is supposed to do, but I'd need to see some more starts in the defensive end against some tougher competition before I award a higher mark. Grade: C+

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GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/60	CorsiQoC	CorsiOn	OZS%	PDO
6	1	2	3	0	10	16.19	-4.482	14.20	48.9	944

All hail Zach Redmond! Seriously, where did this guy come from? Obviously his CorsiQoC of -4.482 shows that he's been giving the easiest competition to play against, but he's done a lot with those minutes. His 2nd-highest CorsiOn for the defenders while having the 3rd-lowest OZS% is pretty impressive, and the fact that he has a +/- of zero with a 944 PDO suggests that perhaps some better things are to come. Grade: B

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GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/60	CorsiQoC	CorsiOn	OZS%	PDO
12	1	0	1	0	19	15.56	1.138	-1.93	42.2	1002

As much as people rag on Stu, he's actually done a pretty nice job this season. Despite having the lowest OZS% and 3rd-highest CorsiQoC, he's barely in the negatives for CorsiOn which is all-in-all not too shabby. Ever since he got off of a pairing with Hainsey, his numbers got better, too. Interesting... He's tough, he has heart and his underlying numbers suggest that he's done a nice job. Grade: B-

Goalies:

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GP	GS	W	L	OTL	SOL	SA	GA	GAA	SV%	SO
10	9	3	6	1	0	254	29	3.28	0.886	0

Ugh... Ondrej Pavelec started off the season strong, but at the quarter-mark the numbers are just plain ugly. 3 wins in 9 starts, a GAA way over 3.00 and a SV% well below 0.900. And it's not just the numbers that are bad, but it's the goals he lets in at the most inopportune time. And the rebounds he kicks directly into the slot. The 5-year extension that Chevy signed Pav to is already beginning to look like a giant albatross around the team's neck, and the Jets won't be going anywhere if Pavelec can't make a save or two when the team needs it. If you want to go look for Ondrej's stats on NHL.com, make sure you look WAY down the list. Grade: F

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GP	GS	W	L	OTL	SOL	SA	GA	GAA	SV%	SO
4	3	2	0	0	1	81	9	2.74	0.889	1

While Big Al doesn't have the best SV%, the rest of his stats aren't too bad. No regulation losses, a shutout win and a GAA below 3.00 are pretty much all you could ask for out of a backup. Sadly, his lower-body injury ends whatever goalie controversy should have been going on. I feel way better with Montoya in net than I do with our "starter". That's a sad state of affairs. Grade: B-

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Our defense has provided us with a lot of offense so far this season, which is unlikely to be sustainable. However, the decent CorsiOn numbers and lower PDO's suggest one thing: The Jets have been let down by the goaltending. Check that: our starting netminder has let us down, as the backup has done a serviceable job. If Ondrej is unable to turn around his game in this shortened season, then the Jets may be looking towards the draft lottery by the time the next quarter of the season is done...

Agree with my assessments? Disagree? Let us know in the comments section.