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NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Selke Trophy Ballot

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For me, the Selke Trophy is both my favourite and least favourite award. No award is more misunderstood without some statistical clarification, but at the same time the number of metrics I'd need to look into for it is pretty large. The differences between two-way and fully defensive forwards is also an important distinction, and my assertion that both should be considered is not universally accepted.

My ballot and explanation after the jump.

My picks...

1st Place - Joe Pavelski

2nd Place - Brandon Dubinsky

3rd Place - Marcel Goc

Bottom to top: Goc was among a slew of defensive forwards saddled with zone starts under 40%, but he was clearly the one who came out smelling the most like a rose (in Corsi Rel 9.2 and Corsi On 4.7). The next closest in either metric among the sub-40% crowd were Bryan Bickell's 0.58 Corsi On and Jeff Halpern's 2.9 Corsi Rel. Throw in the fact that he had the toughest Corsi Rel QoC among Florida's forwards (and 13.88 TOI per 60 at 5v5), and the second highest 4v5 time (1.94/60, behind only Tomas Kopecky's 1.97), and you have the makings of a guy who really did the dirty work. He gets downgraded for his mediocre faceoffs, though (48.4% on the road). Brandon Dubinsky shows up nowhere on anybody else's list, but that's more because he was allowed to slip through the cracks. Logging a very low (for a top 6 forward) zone start at 41.8%, he managed an 8.8 Corsi Rel while facing the 3rd toughest competition among Rangers forwards. Though he came in 6th on the team in 4v5 time (at 1.2 minutes per 60), he posted the best Corsi Rel among forwards with one or more minutes per 60. The cherry on top is his combination of faceoff ability (51.6% on the road, best on the Rangers) and passable takeaway and shot blocking totals. I don't consider his physicality much of an asset, though, since he clearly takes too many penalties.

Pavelski is, quite simply, head and shoulders above all of these guys. 4th among all NHL forwards in Corsi Rel QoC and with relatively low zone starts (48.6%), he also came in second on the San Jose Sharks in 4v5 time. All he did was turn in an 11.1 Corsi Rel at 5v5, come in 10th among NHL forwards in takeaways, 6th in that same group in blocked shots, and 5th in the league in road faceoff win percentage.