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How good were your projections?


Back in July, I asked you to project the final point totals in the Southeast division. And how did you - and Tom Awad's Vukota - do?

Team Readers Vukota Actual
WSH 111 99 92
CAR 89 94 82
WPG 89 84 84
TAM 88 88 84
FLA 89 83 94

For four out of five teams, readers actually did better than Vukota, which significantly misread Florida and Carolina. But everyone - myself included - was way off on the Capitals.

Know who else you (and I) massively over-projected? The Minnesota Wild - on November 14, the Wild had 21 points in their first 17 games, and you projected them to finish the season, on average, with 92.6 points. Instead of locking down 72 points in their last 65 games, they only banked 60. Ironically, Vukota projected Minnesota to finish with exactly 81 points; before you high-five Tom for being so brilliant, that put them 30th overall in the Vukota standings. (The spread of projections in Vukota is much smaller than the actual spread of outcomes, which are driven by luck and talent.)