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A Look at Eric Fehr's Underlying Offensive Numbers

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Probably the biggest statistical outlier on the Jets this year was Eric Fehr's percentages. Nothing seemed to go right for him this year.

I'm going to walk through his underlying offensive numbers and estimate what kind of numbers we could have expected from him given more reasonable puck luck.

Even Strength Goals & Shooting

Games TOI/60 EV shots shots / 60 sh% Goals
2011/12 35 9.2 51 9.5 3.9% 2
2010/11 52 10.5 89 9.8 7.9% 7
2009/10 77 10.6 86 6.3 23.4% 18
2008/09 61 10.4 119 11.3 8.9% 11
Average 56 10.2 86 9.2 11.0% 10

Fehr's even strength ice time is similar to previous years. He also managed to generate shots at a similar rate. His low percentage is of 3.9% resulted in only 2 even strength goals.

In 2009/10 he had his best best year because of some unusually high shooting percentages.

Even Strength Scoring

Games TOI/60 sf on/60 On ice Sh % GFon/60 G/60 A/60 P/60 % on ice pts
2011/12 35 9.2 26.5 2.7% 0.75 0.37 0.19 0.56 75%
2010/11 52 10.5 28.6 7.0% 1.87 0.77 0.55 1.32 71%
2009/10 77 10.6 26.6 7.0% 3.7 1.48 1.23 2.71 73%
2008/09 61 10.4 35 8.5% 2.9 1 1.2 2.2 76%
Average 56 10.2 29.2 9.0% 2.31 0.91 0.79 1.70 74%

Fehr's on ice shots for is slightly lower than previous years. His on ice shooting percentage of 2.7% is exceptionally low. The final column I've titled % on ice points is simply the P/60 divided by GF/60. It tells us what percentage of goals scored when Fehr is on the ice result in him getting points. It will be used later on to estimate how many points we could have expected from him.

PowerPlay Goals & Shooting

Games PP TOI Goals Shots Shots/60 sh %
2011/12 35 0.43 0 2 7.97 0.0%
2010/11 52 1.9 3 28 17.00 10.7%
2009/10 77 1.4 2 21 11.69 9.5%
2008/09 61 0.76 1 13 16.82 7.7%
WSH ave. 56 1.1 1.5 16 13.37 9.4%

While Fehr has never been given premium powerplay time his PP time was down significantly this year. His shots/60 were about half his career average.

PowerPlay Scoring

Games PP TOI Sh on/ 60 gf on/60 On Ice Sh% G/60 A/60 P/60 % on ice pts
2011/12 35 0.43 31.6 0 0.0% 0 0 0
2010/11 52 1.9 51.3 6.72 11.6% 1.83 2.44 4.27 64%
2009/10 77 1.4 46.9 6.8 12.6% 1.23 1.85 3.08 45%
2008/09 61 0.76 47.7 7.7 14.0% 1.29 1.29 2.58 34%
Average 56 1.12 44.4 5.3 13.6% 1.09 1.40 2.48 47%

Fehr's on ice shooting rate was down from previous years.

So what conclusions can we draw?

First off at even strength Fehr was every bit as effective at generating shots in Winnipeg as he was in Washington.

Second, his power play performance dropped off from his time in Washington. Part of the reason for this was due to his own play. He had the lowest S/60 PP on the team.

However, part of this is also due to Washington having a much better powerplay than Winnipeg. This year the Jets generated just 45.6 S/60 on the Powerplay, 10th worst in the NHL. Last year's Capitals teams generated 59.1 S/60 on the powerplay, 3rd best in the NHL.

So what kind of numbers could Fehr have put up this year? Using his career shooting percentages Fehr's boxcar numbers would have looked like this:

GP ES G ES A PP G PP A Tot G Tot A Tot P
Fehr 35 6 3 0 1 6 4 10

Here's his career numbers:

Games G A P
2011/12 35 2 1 3
2010/11 52 10 10 20
2009/10 77 21 18 39
2008/09 61 12 13 25

Over a full season Fehr would have put up pretty much the same point totals he put up every year in Washington with the exception of 2009/10 when he managed a 23% shooting percentage.

So if the Winnipeg Jets thought that Fehr was worth $2.2 million a season last year there's no reason to think he's not worth that again next year.