All of these are forwards who were drafted high, started their careers early, and had statistics similar to Evander Kane’s:
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots2010-11 73 19 24 43 4 2342009-10 66 14 12 26 0 127
So we're looking for 19-21 year olds on the 20-goal bubble, with roughly the same number of assists, with a little bit of power play contribution their 2nd year, with 3 shots per game (up from 2 shots per game the previous season).
Using a revised version of the Snepsts system, we found over a dozen players that qualified – let's see if any of them match Evander Kane this season (who is on pace for 30 goals and 50 points), and shed some light on what the future may store.
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots2007-08 82 19 18 37 5 2132006-07 70 11 18 29 1 170
An excellent match, Kessel scored 36 goals and 60 points the following season, a level at which he has played ever since, already having secured his fourth straight 30-goal season (might wind up being the only player with an active streak that long).
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots2009-10 82 21 22 43 5 2192008-09 79 21 24 45 1 158
A great statistical match going into this year, but scored only 11 goals and 40 points the next season. He's even worse this season – down to 13 minutes a game. Shooting at just a 4.6% clip since the match year (Kane 11.6%).
Blair Chapman
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1977-78 75 24 20 44 4 1801976-77 80 14 23 37 1 152
Doesn't quite have Kane's shot volume. Managed only 10 goals and 18 points the following season, but bounced back nicely with 132 in his next 176 before retiring at age 26.
Lanny McDonald
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1974-75 64 17 27 44 2 1681973-74 70 14 16 30 2 142
Followed this up with a huge 37-goal, 93-point season, his first of 9 straight 30-goal seasons, 6 of which were over 40 goals and one of which was an amazing 66. A Hall-of-Famer, with a Stanley Cup and four All-Star game appearances.
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots2009-10 68 15 26 41 6 1702008-09 76 16 25 41 6 156
Started even younger than Kane, and a much hotter rookie start, thanks in part to ample power play opportunities. Followed up with an almost identical season, and on only a slightly stronger pace this year.
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots2006-07 82 17 27 44 4 1942005-06 56 13 12 25 4 98
A late-round steal by the Ducks, got more power play time in his rookie season, and again not quite the same shot volume as Kane. Scored 29 goals and 54 points the next season, then up to the 30-goal, 75-point level except for a superb 50-goal, 98-point performance last year – also developing a defensive game.
Tom McCarthy
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1980-81 62 23 25 48 4 1471979-80 68 16 20 36 1 101
Doesn't have quite the shot volume as Kane, otherwise a great match. Scored 42 points in 40 games the next season, and essentially a point-a-game clip through five more injury-riddled seasons. An All-Star in 1983, is 13th all-time with a career 19.2% shooting percentage.
Wayne Merrick
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1973-74 65 20 23 43 2 1471972-73 50 10 11 21 3 81
Fewer shots and slightly different power play results than Kane, but followed this up with two straight seasons in the 30-goal, 65-point range. Played seven more seasons topping 20 goals just once, but enjoying four Stanley Cups with the New York Islanders.
Scott Mellanby
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1987-88 75 25 26 51 7 1901986-87 71 11 21 32 1 118
A far rougher player and a slightly later pick, Mellanby followed this up with a 21-goal, 50-point season. He had a super-long career (23rd all-time in games played) featuring six more 20-goal seasons (two of them 30+), and an All-Star appearance in 1996.
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots2001-02 75 17 23 40 0 1622000-01 63 12 13 25 0 99
A later round pick, Williams was injured the next season with shoulder and knee problems. Got back on his feet a few years later with back-to-back 30-goal seasons and a Stanley Cup, but his still-active career has been otherwise hampered by injuries.
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1991-92 76 21 24 45 1 2071990-91 78 21 22 43 8 173
A bigger and rougher player than Kane, and with a stronger rookie season (thanks to ample power play opportunities). Scored 20 goals and 39 points in 61 games the next season. Enjoyed a very long career in which he had six more 20-goal seasons, two Stanley Cups, two All-star games and a fine defensive reputation.
Adam Deadmarsh
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1995-96 78 21 27 48 3 1511994-95 48 9 8 17 0 48
A much rougher player, Deadmarsh had a comparable 33-goal, 60-point season the next year – a career high until his last full season at age 26 where he scored 29 goals and 62 points the year before his career-ending concussion.
Garry Unger
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots1968-69 76 24 20 44 5 1861967-68 28 6 11 17 0 57
Undrafted, a little smaller, but had more of a defensive upside than Kane. Followed this up with 42 goals and 66 points. A long career, with seven straight All-star appearances, eight straight 30-goal seasons and once held the iron man record for consecutive games.
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots2008-09 82 22 27 49 2 1662007-08 82 12 16 28 3 183
A large player with a much stronger defensive game, started even younger than Kane with a monster 29-goal rookie year. Followed this up with an almost identical season, and then 30 goals and 57 points over the next 82 games (spread out over two injury-plagued seasons).
The Verdict
There's ample historical precedent for a long career with All-Star appearances and long stretches of 30-goal seasons for Kane, like McDonald, Unger, Kessel, Perry, Holik and Mellanby (especially if he develops a defensive game like most of them). Furthermore, unless he succumbs to injuries like Staal, Deadmarsh, Williams and McCarthy, there's little precedent for disappointment, like possibly Frolik and Chapman.
| Option | Votes |
|---|---|
| Phil Kessel | 4 |
| Corey Perry | 4 |
| Lanny McDonald | 0 |
| Blair Chapman | 1 |
| Michael Frolik | 0 |
| Sam Gagner | 1 |
| Justin Williams | 2 |
| Someone else (Leave Comment) | 2 |
