Building on the results of our first round analysis on Monday, let's look at the results of the second round. First the frequency of each series won-loss state for the home team since 1986-87:
And the expected home team winning percentage:
The actual home-team winning percentage:
And finally, the home team's performance relative to expectations:
There are statistical significance problems with the 3-0 state, but when the home team is up 3-1 or 3-2, they tend to over-perform expectations. We also see similar performance in the 1-1 state, when the lower-seeded team is playing its first game at home.