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Second-Round Home-Ice Advantage

By Hawerchuk
Getty Images

Building on the results of our first round analysis on Monday, let's look at the results of the second round.  First the frequency of each series won-loss state for the home team since 1986-87:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 92 35 33 20
Win 1 57 44 31 16
Win 2 15 34 34 28
Win 3 7 26 20 22


And the expected home team winning percentage:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 0.561 0.554 0.425 0.425
Win 1 0.565 0.447 0.430 0.543
Win 2 0.445 0.451 0.550 0.458
Win 3 0.460 0.552 0.431 0.568

 

The actual home-team winning percentage:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 0.620 0.571 0.394 0.400
Win 1 0.579 0.591 0.484 0.438
Win 2 0.467 0.441 0.618 0.500
Win 3 0.571 0.731 0.600 0.591

 

And finally, the home team's performance relative to expectations:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 0.059 0.017 -0.031 -0.025
Win 1 0.014 0.144 0.054 -0.105
Win 2 0.022 -0.010 0.068 0.042
Win 3 0.111 0.179 0.169 0.023

 

There are statistical significance problems with the 3-0 state, but when the home team is up 3-1 or 3-2, they tend to over-perform expectations.  We also see similar performance in the 1-1 state, when the lower-seeded team is playing its first game at home.