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Second-Round Home-Ice Advantage

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Building on the results of our first round analysis on Monday, let's look at the results of the second round.  First the frequency of each series won-loss state for the home team since 1986-87:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 92 35 33 20
Win 1 57 44 31 16
Win 2 15 34 34 28
Win 3 7 26 20 22


And the expected home team winning percentage:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 0.561 0.554 0.425 0.425
Win 1 0.565 0.447 0.430 0.543
Win 2 0.445 0.451 0.550 0.458
Win 3 0.460 0.552 0.431 0.568

 

The actual home-team winning percentage:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 0.620 0.571 0.394 0.400
Win 1 0.579 0.591 0.484 0.438
Win 2 0.467 0.441 0.618 0.500
Win 3 0.571 0.731 0.600 0.591

 

And finally, the home team's performance relative to expectations:

 

Loss Loss Loss Loss
0 1 2 3
Win 0 0.059 0.017 -0.031 -0.025
Win 1 0.014 0.144 0.054 -0.105
Win 2 0.022 -0.010 0.068 0.042
Win 3 0.111 0.179 0.169 0.023

 

There are statistical significance problems with the 3-0 state, but when the home team is up 3-1 or 3-2, they tend to over-perform expectations.  We also see similar performance in the 1-1 state, when the lower-seeded team is playing its first game at home.