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Who are you going to bet on in the East?

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An OT win last night puts the Leafs four points out of a playoff spot that seemed unimaginable a month ago.  So who's in play for the last two playoff spots in the East?

 

FEN PDO FEN PDO
TEAM Points In-Hand 5v5 5v5 PP/PK PP/PK
BUF 67 3 51.8 1001 53.6 999
NYR 70 0 50.2 1003 49.7 1012
TOR 65 1 48.1 995 49.3 959
CAR 69 1 47.0 1005 44.4 1011

 

The FEN 5v5 column shows each team's shot percentage (aka Fenwick) at 5-on-5; PDO = save % +1000 - shot %*10.  The PP/PK columns refer to PP shots for and PK shots against (eg - FEN PP/PK = PPSF/[PPSF+PKSA].)

Buffalo appears to be the best team in the group, and with three games in hand, they'd likely have the most points if all four teams had played the same number of games.  Toronto has the toughest road - they're a couple of wins out 8th place, and after years of controlling the shot totals while losing, they're in the red this season despite having only a marginally-better record.  Carolina is essentially tied with Buffalo and New York, but their peripherals are by far the weakest of the group.

Bodog sees it a little differently: New York is 20/1 to win the cup, followed by Buffalo at 35/1, Carolina at 35/1 and Toronto at 75/1.  I think that over-estimates Carolina and under-estimates Buffalo.