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2-on-1s, Breakaways and Shootouts

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I think we all owe a debt of gratitude to the bloggers who've decided to record NHL scoring chances.  The pseudonymous Leafs scorer Slava Duris has been kind enough to record odd-man rushes and breakaways for us.  This lets us estimate how much more dangerous a breakaway or a 2-on-1 is than the average shot from the same location.


First, breakaways:

 

Distance Shot%
Breakaways 18.3 25.6
Same Distance 18.3 12.0
Shootouts 32.7

 

So in our small sample size, a breakaway is 113% more likely to turn into a goal than an average shot from the same location.  And given all the time in the world, a shootout penalty shot is only 28% more dangerous than a breakaway.  How about 2-on-1s?

 

Distance Shot%
2-on-1s 27.3 20.4
Same Distance 27.3 8.3

 

This time our small sample size suggests that 2-on-1s are 146% more dangerous than shots from the same spot.  Does it make sense that an odd-man rush - which results in a shot from further out than a breakaway - is relatively more dangerous than a breakaway is?  It's possible, but I've also included deflections and rebounds in the analysis, which makes the average shot from close to the net seem a bit more dangerous than if we restricted ourselves to initial shots.